{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,14]],"date-time":"2026-03-14T05:12:04Z","timestamp":1773465124639,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":78,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,21]],"date-time":"2023-01-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1674259200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Jacobs Foundation"},{"name":"McDonnell Foundation"},{"name":"Rutgers University-Newark Dean\u2019s Dissertation Completion Fellowship"},{"name":"German Research Foundation"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Entropy"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Bayesian models allow us to investigate children\u2019s belief revision alongside physiological states, such as \u201csurprise\u201d. Recent work finds that pupil dilation (or the \u201cpupillary surprise response\u201d) following expectancy violations is predictive of belief revision. How can probabilistic models inform the interpretations of \u201csurprise\u201d? Shannon Information considers the likelihood of an observed event, given prior beliefs, and suggests stronger surprise occurs following unlikely events. In contrast, Kullback\u2013Leibler divergence considers the dissimilarity between prior beliefs and updated beliefs following observations\u2014with greater surprise indicating more change between belief states to accommodate information. To assess these accounts under different learning contexts, we use Bayesian models that compare these computational measures of \u201csurprise\u201d to contexts where children are asked to either predict or evaluate the same evidence during a water displacement task. We find correlations between the computed Kullback\u2013Leibler divergence and the children\u2019s pupillometric responses only when the children actively make predictions, and no correlation between Shannon Information and pupillometry. This suggests that when children attend to their beliefs and make predictions, pupillary responses may signal the degree of divergence between a child\u2019s current beliefs and the updated, more accommodating beliefs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/e25020211","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,23]],"date-time":"2023-01-23T02:27:45Z","timestamp":1674440865000},"page":"211","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Seeing the Error in My \u201cBayes\u201d: A Quantified Degree of Belief Change Correlates with Children\u2019s Pupillary Surprise Responses Following Explicit Predictions"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6333-9250","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joseph","family":"Colantonio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA"},{"name":"Psychology Department, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ 07102, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6830-8728","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Igor","family":"Bascandziev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Theobald","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"DIPF|Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education, Rostocker Str. 6, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Garvin","family":"Brod","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"DIPF|Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education, Rostocker Str. 6, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Bonawitz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Education, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"381","article-title":"Conditionals and Changes of Belief","volume":"30","year":"1978","journal-title":"Acta Philos. 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