{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T02:11:13Z","timestamp":1760148673312,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,23]],"date-time":"2023-05-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1684800000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Entropy"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Anatolian region is one of the most seismically active tectonic settings in the world. Here, we perform a clustering analysis of Turkish seismicity using an updated version of the Turkish Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue (TURHEC), which contains the recent developments of the still ongoing Kahramanmara\u015f seismic sequence. We show that some statistical properties of seismic activity are related to the regional seismogenic potential. Mapping the local and global coefficients of variation of inter-event times of crustal seismicity which occurred during the last three decades, we find that territories prone to major seismic events during the last century usually host globally clustered and locally Poissonian seismic activity. We suggest that regions with seismicity associated with higher values of the global coefficient of variation of inter-event times, CV, are likely to be more prone to hosting large earthquakes in the near future than other regions characterized by lower values, if their largest seismic events have the same magnitude. If our hypothesis is confirmed, clustering properties should be considered as a possible additional information source for the assessment of seismic hazard. We also find positive correlations between global clustering properties, the maximum magnitude and the seismic rate, while the b-value of the Gutenberg\u2013Richter law is weakly correlated with them. Finally, we identify possible changes in such parameters before and during the 2023 Kahramanmara\u015f seismic sequence.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/e25060835","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,23]],"date-time":"2023-05-23T07:00:02Z","timestamp":1684825202000},"page":"835","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Clustering Analysis of Seismicity in the Anatolian Region with Implications for Seismic Hazard"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6884-8452","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Davide","family":"Zaccagnino","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Roma, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5978-6031","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luciano","family":"Telesca","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050 Tito, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3112-1385","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Onur","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Istanbul University-Cerrahpa\u015fa, Istanbul 34320, Turkey"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8651-6387","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carlo","family":"Doglioni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Roma, Italy"},{"name":"National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, 00143 Roma, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"723","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.1987.tb01653.x","article-title":"Random stress and earthquake statistics: Time dependence","volume":"88","author":"Kagan","year":"1987","journal-title":"Geophys. J. Int."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117511","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epsl.2022.117511","article-title":"Scaling properties of seismicity and faulting","volume":"584","author":"Zaccagnino","year":"2022","journal-title":"Earth Planet. Sci. Lett."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ben-Zion, Y., and Sammis, C. (2010). Mechanics, Structure and Evolution of Fault Zones, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-0346-0138-2"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24453","DOI":"10.1029\/98JB00699","article-title":"Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress","volume":"103","author":"Kagan","year":"1998","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"eabk1167","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abk1167","article-title":"A unified perspective of seismicity and fault coupling along the San Andreas Fault","volume":"8","author":"Liu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117444","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epsl.2022.117444","article-title":"Frictional controls on the seismogenic zone: Insights from the Apenninic basement, Central Italy","volume":"583","author":"Volpe","year":"2022","journal-title":"Earth. Planet. Sci. Lett."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.5194\/npg-2-109-1995","article-title":"Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions","volume":"2","author":"Dieterich","year":"1995","journal-title":"Nonlinear Process. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5779","DOI":"10.1029\/95JB03730","article-title":"Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California","volume":"101","author":"Knopoff","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth"},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"20160497","article-title":"Generalized statistical mechanics approaches to earthquakes and tectonics","volume":"472","author":"Vallianatos","year":"2016","journal-title":"Proc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"607","article-title":"Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake predictions","volume":"5","author":"Sornette","year":"1995","journal-title":"J. Phys. I"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121293","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2019.121293","article-title":"Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity and earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns","volume":"527","author":"Mintzelas","year":"2019","journal-title":"Physica A"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.5194\/angeo-37-315-2019","article-title":"Phenomena preceding major earthquakes interconnected through a physical model","volume":"37","author":"Varotsos","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"697","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-019-03834-7","article-title":"Detrended fluctuation analysis of seismicity and order parameter fluctuations before the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake","volume":"100","author":"Skordas","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2020GL089272","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL089272","article-title":"Periodicity and clustering in the long-term earthquake record","volume":"47","author":"Griffin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5661","DOI":"10.1007\/s00024-020-02618-6","article-title":"Robust Earthquake Cluster Analysis Based on K-Nearest Neighbor Search","volume":"177","author":"Samadi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pure Appl. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3972","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-17841-x","article-title":"Clustering earthquake signals and background noises in continuous seismic data with unsupervised deep learning","volume":"11","author":"Seydoux","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2020GL089651","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL089651","article-title":"Machine learning-based analysis of geological susceptibility to induced seismicity in the Montney Formation, Canada","volume":"47","author":"Wozniakowska","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1005","DOI":"10.1007\/s10950-021-09999-8","article-title":"An improved K-means clustering algorithm for global earthquake catalogs and earthquake magnitude prediction","volume":"25","author":"Yuan","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Seismol."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.2006.03275.x","article-title":"Statistical properties of seismicity of fault zones at different evolutionary stages","volume":"169","author":"Hillers","year":"2007","journal-title":"Geophys. J. Int."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48002","DOI":"10.1209\/0295-5075\/81\/48002","article-title":"Burstiness and memory in complex systems","volume":"81","author":"Goh","year":"2008","journal-title":"Europhys. Lett."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"69001","DOI":"10.1209\/0295-5075\/81\/69001","article-title":"Long-term memory in earthquakes and the distribution of interoccurrence times","volume":"81","author":"Lennartz","year":"2008","journal-title":"Europhys. Lett."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sardeli, E., Michas, G., Pavlou, K., Vallianatos, F., Karakonstantis, A., and Chatzopoulos, G. (2023). Complexity of Recent Earthquake Swarms in Greece in Terms of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics. Entropy, 25.","DOI":"10.3390\/e25040667"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113419","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2023.113419","article-title":"Global versus local clustering of seismicity: Implications with earthquake prediction","volume":"170","author":"Zaccagnino","year":"2023","journal-title":"Chaos Solitons Fractals"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tan, O. (2021). Turkish Homogenized Earthquake Catalogue (TURHEC). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (NHESS).","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-21-2059-2021"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2059","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-21-2059-2021","article-title":"A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey","volume":"21","author":"Tan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"859","DOI":"10.1785\/0119990114","article-title":"Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the western United States, and Japan","volume":"90","author":"Wiemer","year":"2000","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"684","DOI":"10.1785\/0120040007","article-title":"Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty","volume":"95","author":"Woessner","year":"2005","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.1991.tb02498.x","article-title":"Long-term earthquake clustering","volume":"104","author":"Kagan","year":"1991","journal-title":"Geophys. J. Int."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Chelidze, T., Vallianatos, F., and Telesca, L. (2018). Complexity of Seismic Time Series: Measurement and Application, Elsevier."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biosystems.2004.09.023","article-title":"A measure of local variation of inter-spike intervals","volume":"79","author":"Shinomoto","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biosystems"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2125","DOI":"10.1785\/BSSA0770062125","article-title":"Confidence intervals of b values for grouped magnitudes","volume":"77","author":"Tinti","year":"1987","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"237","article-title":"Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a-bM and its confidence limits","volume":"43","author":"Aki","year":"1965","journal-title":"Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Melgar, D., Taymaz, T., Ganas, A., Crowell, B., \u00d6calan, T., Kahraman, M., Tsironi, V., Yolsal-\u00c7evikbilen, S., Valkaniotis, S., and Irmak, T.S. (2023). Sub- and super-shear ruptures during the 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 earthquake doublet in SE T\u00fcrkiye. Seismica, 2.","DOI":"10.26443\/seismica.v2i3.387"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"376","DOI":"10.1785\/0120000838","article-title":"The 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence in Turkey: Seismological and tectonic aspects","volume":"92","author":"Ozalaybey","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5695","DOI":"10.1029\/1999JB900351","article-title":"Global Positioning System constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus","volume":"105","author":"Mcclusky","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Vernant, P., Lawrence, S., Ergintav, S., Cakmak, R., Ozener, H., Kadirov, F., Guliev, I., and Stepanyan, R. (2006). GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 111.","DOI":"10.1029\/2005JB004051"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"635","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.2006.02971.x","article-title":"Ground motion scaling in the Marmara region, Turkey","volume":"166","author":"Akinci","year":"2006","journal-title":"Geophys. J. Int."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1016\/j.soildyn.2008.07.006","article-title":"Loss estimation in Istanbul based on deterministic earthquake scenarios of the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)","volume":"29","author":"Ansal","year":"2009","journal-title":"Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2679","DOI":"10.1002\/2015JB012595","article-title":"M \u2265 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey","volume":"121","author":"Murru","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3006","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-11016-z","article-title":"Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul","volume":"10","author":"Lange","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Barka, A., and Reilinger, R. (2023, April 09). Active Tectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Deduced from GPS, Neotectonic and Seismicity Data. Available online: http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/2122\/1520."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1935","DOI":"10.1785\/0120010271","article-title":"A 2000-year-long paleoseismologic record of earthquakes along the central North Anatolian Fault, from trenches at Alayurt, Turkey","volume":"93","author":"Hartleb","year":"2003","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1144\/SP501-2019-141","article-title":"Fault geometry, segmentation and slip distribution associated with the 1939 Erzincan earthquake rupture along the North Anatolian fault, Turkey","volume":"501","author":"Emre","year":"2021","journal-title":"Geol. Soc. Spec. Publ."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1858","DOI":"10.1126\/science.285.5435.1858","article-title":"The 17 august 1999 Izmit earthquake","volume":"285","author":"Barka","year":"1999","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1785\/0120000834","article-title":"Deformation during the 12 November 1999 Duzce, Turkey, earthquake, from GPS and InSAR data","volume":"92","author":"Burgmann","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1295","DOI":"10.1007\/s00024-019-02410-1","article-title":"The Chios, Greece earthquake of 23 july 1949: Seismological reassessment and tsunami investigations","volume":"177","author":"Melis","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pure Appl. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jamalreyhani, M., B\u00fcy\u00fckakp\u0131nar, P., Cesca, S., Dahm, T., Sudhaus, H., Rezapour, M., Isken, M.P., Asayesh, B.M., and Heimann, S. (2020). Seismicity related to the eastern sector of Anatolian escape tectonic: The example of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.77 Elazig-Sivrice earthquake. Solid Earth Discuss., 1\u201322.","DOI":"10.5194\/se-2020-55"},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.1972.tb05811.x","article-title":"Seismotectonic aspects of the Gediz, Turkey, earthquake of March 1970","volume":"30","author":"Ambraseys","year":"1972","journal-title":"Geophys. J. Int."},{"key":"ref_49","first-page":"405","article-title":"The earthquake catalogues for Turkey","volume":"17","author":"Tan","year":"2008","journal-title":"Turk. J. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"989697","DOI":"10.3389\/feart.2022.989697","article-title":"Variable seismic responsiveness to stress perturbations along the shallow section of subduction zones: The role of different slip modes and implications for the stability of fault segments","volume":"10","author":"Zaccagnino","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kwiatek, G., Mart\u00ednez-Garz\u00f3n, P., Becker, D., Dresen, G., Cotton, F., Beroza, G., Acarel, D., Ergintav, S., and Bohnhoff, M. (2023). Months-long preparation of the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmara\u015f earthquake, T\u00fcrkiye. Preprint.","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-2657873\/v1"},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1093\/gji\/ggaa308","article-title":"Curvature, a mechanical link between the geometrical complexities of a fault: Application to bends, kinks and rough faults","volume":"223","author":"Romanet","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geophys. J. Int."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"258","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-022-00593-5","article-title":"The impact of faulting complexity and type on earthquake rupture dynamics","volume":"3","author":"Zaccagnino","year":"2022","journal-title":"Commun. Earth Environ."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1785\/0320220043","article-title":"Fault Roughness at Seismogenic Depths and Links to Earthquake Behavior","volume":"3","author":"Cochran","year":"2023","journal-title":"Seism. Rec."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2022GL101241","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL101241","article-title":"Fault roughness promotes earthquake-like aftershock clustering in the lab","volume":"50","author":"Goebel","year":"2023","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."}],"container-title":["Entropy"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1099-4300\/25\/6\/835\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T19:40:17Z","timestamp":1760125217000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1099-4300\/25\/6\/835"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,23]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6]]}},"alternative-id":["e25060835"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/e25060835","relation":{},"ISSN":["1099-4300"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1099-4300"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,23]]}}}