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We analyzed the dynamic causal relationships of prices for 25 commodities related to China (including futures and spot prices of energy, industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural products), validating the effect of the causal network structure among commodity markets on systemic risk. Our research results identified commodities and categories playing significant roles, revealing that industry and precious metal markets possess stronger market information transmission capabilities, with price fluctuations impacting a broader range and with greater force on other commodity markets. Under the influence of different types of crisis events, such as economic crises and the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, the causal network structure among commodity markets exhibited distinct characteristics. The results of the effect of external shocks to the causal network structure of commodity markets on the entropy of systemic risk suggest that network structure indicators can warn of systemic risk. This article can assist investors and policymakers in managing systemic risk to avoid unexpected losses.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/e26070549","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]],"date-time":"2024-06-27T08:57:50Z","timestamp":1719478670000},"page":"549","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Early Warning of Systemic Risk in Commodity Markets Based on Transfer Entropy Networks: Evidence from China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"26","author":[{"given":"Yiran","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Xiangyun","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Hongyu","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Xiaotian","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Sufang","family":"An","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104741","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2020.104741","article-title":"Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China","volume":"93","author":"Ahmed","year":"2021","journal-title":"Energy Econ."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2049477","DOI":"10.1080\/23322039.2022.2049477","article-title":"Investigating the impact of geopolitical risks on the commodity futures","volume":"10","author":"Mitsas","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cogent Econ. 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