{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,26]],"date-time":"2025-12-26T02:27:50Z","timestamp":1766716070244,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":66,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,20]],"date-time":"2025-12-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766188800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Guangxi Science and Technology Plan Project","award":["Guike AA23062038"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Guike AA23062038"]}]},{"name":"Guangxi Science and Technology Plan Project","award":["Guike AA24206043"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Guike AA24206043"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U23A20280"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U23A20280"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["62161007"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["62161007"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["62471153"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["62471153"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Graduate Innovation Project of Guilin University of Electronic Technology","award":["YCBZ2024162"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["YCBZ2024162"]}]},{"name":"2020 Guangxi University Middle-Aged and Young Teachers\u2019 Scientific Research Basic Competency Improvement Project","award":["2020KY21024"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020KY21024"]}]},{"name":"Guangxi Autonomous Region Major Talent Project"},{"name":"Joint International Research Laboratory of Spatio-Temporal Information and Intelligent Location Services"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Entropy"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Increasingly frequent intense rainfall is increasing landslide occurrence and risk. In southern China in particular, steep slopes and thin residual soils produce frequent landslide events with pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, displacement prediction methods that function across sites and deformation regimes in similar settings are essential for early warning. Most existing approaches adopt a multistage pipeline that decomposes, predicts, and recombines, often leading to complex architectures with weak cross-domain transfer and limited adaptability. To address these limitations, we present CRAFormer, a causal role-aware Transformer guided by a dynamic-lag Bayesian network-style causal graph learned from historical observations. In our system, the discovered directed acyclic graph (DAG) partitions drivers into five causal roles and induces role-specific, non-anticipative masks for lightweight branch encoders, while a context-aware Top-2 gate sparsely fuses the branch outputs, yielding sample-wise attributions. To safely exploit exogenous rainfall forecasts, next-day rainfall is entered exclusively through an ICS tail with a leakage-free block mask, a non-negative readout, and a rainfall monotonicity regularizer. In this study, we curate two long-term GNSS datasets from Guangxi (LaMenTun and BaYiTun) that capture slow creep and step-like motions during extreme rainfall. Under identical inputs and a unified protocol, CRAFormer reduces the MAE and RMSE by 59\u201379% across stations relative to the strongest baseline, and it lowers magnitude errors near turning points and step events, demonstrating robust performance for two contrasting landslides within a shared regional setting. Ablations confirm the contributions of the DBN-style causal masks, the leakage-free ICS tail, and the monotonicity prior. These results highlight a practical path from causal discovery to forecast-compatible neural predictors for rainfall-induced landslides.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/e28010007","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,24]],"date-time":"2025-12-24T12:22:27Z","timestamp":1766578947000},"page":"7","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Bayesian-Inspired Dynamic-Lag Causal Graphs and Role-Aware Transformers for Landslide Displacement Forecasting"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-2966-074X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Information and Communication, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China"},{"name":"School of Computer Science and Engineering, Guilin University of Aerospace Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8092-6679","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuanfa","family":"Ji","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Information and Communication, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Xiaoming","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Geological Environment Monitoring Station, Nanning 530201, China"}]},{"given":"Siyuan","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Computer Science and Information Security, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Zhang","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi\u2019an 710072, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4227-2499","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiyan","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Information and Communication, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-3288-4598","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shuai","family":"Ren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah, Pekan 26600, Malaysia"}]},{"given":"Xizi","family":"Jia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Information and Communication, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1002\/esp.2223","article-title":"Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?","volume":"37","author":"Huggel","year":"2012","journal-title":"Earth Surf. 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