{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,12]],"date-time":"2025-10-12T04:36:51Z","timestamp":1760243811671,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,11]],"date-time":"2022-11-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668124800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Future Internet"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Technological evolution and its potential impacts are of significant interest to governments, corporate organizations and for academic enquiry; but assessments of technology progression are often highly subjective. This paper prototypes potential objective measures to assess technology progression using internet-based data. These measures may help reduce the subjective nature of such assessments and, in conjunction with other techniques, reduce the uncertainty of technology progression assessment. The paper examines one part of the technology ecosystem, namely, academic research and publications. It uses analytics performed against a large body of academic paper abstracts and metadata published over 20 years to propose and demonstrate candidate indicators of technology progression. Measures prototyped are: (i) overall occurrence of technologies used over time in research, (ii) the fields in which this use was made; (iii) the geographic spread of specific technologies within research and (iv) the clustering of technology research over time. An outcome of the analysis is an ability to assess the measures of technology progression against a set of inputs and a set of commentaries and forecasts made publicly in the subject area over the last 20 years. The potential automated indicators of research are discussed together with other indicators which might help working groups in assessing technology progression using more quantitative methods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/fi14110327","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]],"date-time":"2022-11-14T04:14:01Z","timestamp":1668399241000},"page":"327","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Generating Indicators of Disruptive Innovation Using Big Data"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Roger C.","family":"Brackin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6858-4247","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael J.","family":"Jackson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0822-1441","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrew","family":"Leyshon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3658-8796","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeremy G.","family":"Morley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ordnance Survey, Southampton SO16 0AS, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7159-0621","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sarah","family":"Jewitt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Linden, A., and Fenn, J. (2022, September 10). Strategic Analysis Report No R-20-1971, Gartner. Available online: http:\/\/www.ask-force.org\/web\/Discourse\/Linden-HypeCycle-2003.pdf."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"National Research Council (2009). Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, National Academic Press. [1st ed.]."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"National Research Council (2010). Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, National Academic Press. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Bower, J., and Christensen, C. (2022, September 10). Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave. Harvard Business Review January\u2013February 1995. Available online: http:\/\/www3.yildiz.edu.tr\/~naydin\/MI2\/lectures\/Reading\/Disruptive%20Technologie%20Catching%20the%20Wave.pdf."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Arthur, W.B. (2009). The Nature of Technology and How It Evolves, Simon & Schuster Inc."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.3898\/136266211798411183","article-title":"The Entrepreneurial State","volume":"49","author":"Mazzucato","year":"2011","journal-title":"Soundings"},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"Gerasimos, G. (2017). Rigatos State-Space Approaches for Modelling and Control in Financial Engineering, Systems Theory and Machine Learning Methods; Springer."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1016\/j.shpsb.2010.07.006","article-title":"Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability","volume":"41","author":"Parker","year":"2010","journal-title":"Stud. Hist. Philos. Mod. Phys."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"Christensen, C.M. (1997). The Innovator\u2019s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Harvard Business Review Press."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.2218\/finsoc.v3i1.1936","article-title":"Platform capitalism: The intermediation and capitalisation of the digital economic circulation","volume":"3","author":"Langley","year":"2017","journal-title":"Financ. Soc."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Treiblmaier, H. (2022). What Is Coming across the Horizon and How Can We Handle It? Bitcoin Scenarios as a Starting Point for Rigorous and Relevant Research. Future Internet, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/fi14060162"},{"key":"ref_12","unstructured":"Hang, C.C., Chen, J., and Yu, D. (2010, January 18\u201322). An Assessment Framework for Disruptive Innovation. Proceedings of the PICMET Technology Management For Global Economic Growth, Phuket, Thailand."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1080\/19761597.2016.1207415","article-title":"Why do we need a theory and metrics of technology upgrading?","volume":"24","author":"Radosevic","year":"2016","journal-title":"Asian J. Technol. Innov."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"208","DOI":"10.1093\/scipol\/scs017","article-title":"On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues","volume":"39","author":"Amanatidou","year":"2012","journal-title":"Sci. Public Policy"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jovic, M., Tijan, E., Aksentijevic, S., and Zgaljic, D. (2020, January 28\u201329). Disruptive Innovations in Electronic Transportation Management Systems. Proceedings of the 33RD Bled EConference Enabling Technology for a Sustainable Society, Bled, Slovenia.","DOI":"10.18690\/978-961-286-362-3.1"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brackin, R., Jackson, M., Leyshon, A., and Morley, J. (2019). Taming Disruption? Pervasive Data Analytics, Uncertainty and Policy Intervention in Disruptive Technology and its Geographic Spread. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf., 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi8010034"},{"key":"ref_17","unstructured":"Simon, P. (2011). The Age of the Platform: How Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google Have Redefined Business, Motion Publishing."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.1111\/newe.12023","article-title":"The challenges of platform capitalism: Understanding the logic of a new business model","volume":"23","author":"Srnicek","year":"2017","journal-title":"Juncture"},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Xuetao, W. (2013). Understanding and Improving the Smartphone Ecosystem: Measurements, Security and Tools. [Ph.D. Dissertation, University of California]."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"McAffe, A., and Brynjolsson, E. (2017). Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing the Digital Revolution, W. W Norton and Sons."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mokyr, J. (2016). A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy, Princeton University Press.","DOI":"10.2307\/j.ctt1wf4dft"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Arthur, W.B. (1994). Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, University of Michigan Press.","DOI":"10.3998\/mpub.10029"},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Masters, B., and Thiel, P. (2015). Zero to One: Notes on Start Ups, or How to Build the Future, Virgin Books. ISBN-10 0753555190."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"60","DOI":"10.1109\/MCE.2015.2392954","article-title":"Smartphone Revolution: Technology patenting and licensing fosters innovation, market entry, and exceptional growth","volume":"4","author":"Mallinson","year":"2015","journal-title":"IEEE Consum. Electron. Mag."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"(2022, September 10). HM Government Green Paper, Building Our Industrial Strategy, Available online: https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/611705\/building-our-industrial-strategy-green-paper.pdf."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Tanaka, N., Glaude, M., and Gault, F. (2005). The Measurement of Scientific and Technological Activities. Oslo Manual: Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Innovation Data, OECD Library. [3rd ed.]. OECD\/Euro-stat (2005)."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Claus, S., and Stella, M. (2022). Natural Language Processing and Cognitive Networks Identify UK Insurers\u2019 Trends in Investor Day Transcripts. Future Internet, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/fi14100291"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170","DOI":"10.1177\/0969776411427326","article-title":"Comparing knowledge bases: On the geography and organization of knowledge sourcing in the regional innovation system of Scania, Sweden","volume":"20","author":"Martin","year":"2013","journal-title":"Eur. Urban Reg. Stud."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Bj\u00f6rn, A., and Meric, G. (2009). The Geography of Innovation: Regional Innovation Systems, Oxford University Press."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2283","DOI":"10.1068\/a130255p","article-title":"Here Be Startups: Exploring London\u2019s \u2018Tech City\u2019 Digital Cluster","volume":"46","author":"Nathan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ. Plan. A"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geoforum.2015.05.009","article-title":"Balancing the spatial localisation \u2018Tilt\u2019: Knowledge spillovers in processes of knowledge-intensive services","volume":"65","author":"Schmidt","year":"2015","journal-title":"Geoforum"},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Machado, C., and Davim, J. (2020). Technology Forecasting: Recent Trends and New Methods. Research Methodology in Management and Industrial Engineering, Springer."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Dellermann, D., Lipusch, N., Ebel, P., Popp, K.M., and Leimeister, J.M. (2021). Finding the Unicorn: Predicting Early Stage Startup Success through a Hybrid Intelligence Method. arXiv."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1080\/09537325.2017.1337886","article-title":"Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories: Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet","volume":"30","author":"Carbonell","year":"2018","journal-title":"Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"930","DOI":"10.1007\/s10961-015-9449-0","article-title":"Detecting the emergence of technologies and the evolution and co-development trajectories in science (DETECTS): A \u2018burst\u2019 analysis-based approach","volume":"41","author":"Dernis","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Technol. Transf."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chang, S. (2022). Gaining Competitive Advantage with a Performance-Oriented Assessment using Patent Mapping and Topic Trend Analysis: A Case for Comparing South Korea, United States and Europe\u2019s EV Wireless Charging Patents. [Ph.D. Dissertation, Stony Brook University].","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.4227680"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1080\/21622671.2015.1064825","article-title":"Rebalancing the Spatial Economy: The Challenge for Regional Theory","volume":"3","author":"Martin","year":"2015","journal-title":"Territ. Politics Gov."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Mayer-Schoenberger, V., and Cuckier, K. (2013). Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"Gladwell, M. (2000). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Little Brown and Company."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Lepore, J. (2022, September 10). New Yorker\u2014The Disruption Machine: What the Gospel of Innovation Gets Wrong. Available online: https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/magazine\/2014\/06\/23\/the-disruption-machine."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Strambach, S., Klement, B., and Heidenreich, M. (2012). The organizational decomposition of innovation and territorial knowledge dynamics. Insights from the German software industry. Innovation and Institutional Embeddedness of Multinational Companies, Edward Elgar Publishing, Incorporated.","DOI":"10.4337\/9780857934338.00019"}],"container-title":["Future Internet"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-5903\/14\/11\/327\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T01:14:36Z","timestamp":1760145276000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1999-5903\/14\/11\/327"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,11]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]}},"alternative-id":["fi14110327"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/fi14110327","relation":{},"ISSN":["1999-5903"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1999-5903"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,11]]}}}