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Another new assumption was that surprise as a factor influencing the weight of a trial in the sampling procedure was added. In the second model we added the possibility of an exclusion of unreliable experiences gained in the early trials of a game and the possibility of a revision of a reasonable alternative which was responsible for a very bad outcome in the previous trial. Three of the four added assumptions were combined in the third model. Because each of our models contains at least two new assumptions, we estimated the relative effect of each assumption on the estimation and prediction scores and carried out a test of robustness. In this way, we were able to clarify the usefulness of each added assumption.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/g2020200","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,4,12]],"date-time":"2011-04-12T10:31:33Z","timestamp":1302604293000},"page":"200-208","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Market Entry Prediction Competition 2010"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"2","author":[{"given":"Wasilios","family":"Hariskos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Empirical Research in Economic and Behavioral Sciences (CEREB), University of Erfurt, 99089 Erfurt, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Johannes","family":"Leder","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Empirical Research in Economic and Behavioral Sciences (CEREB), University of Erfurt, 99089 Erfurt, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kinneret","family":"Teodorescu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Technion\u2013Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,4,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Nevo, I., and Erev, I. 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Available online: http:\/\/www.unitn.it\/files\/download\/11452\/learningchapter.pdf (accessed on June 2009)."}],"container-title":["Games"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4336\/2\/2\/200\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T21:55:48Z","timestamp":1760219748000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4336\/2\/2\/200"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,4,12]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,6]]}},"alternative-id":["g2020200"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/g2020200","relation":{},"ISSN":["2073-4336"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2073-4336"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,4,12]]}}}