{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,24]],"date-time":"2026-03-24T02:51:13Z","timestamp":1774320673629,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]],"date-time":"2021-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1617235200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["41701014, 41971016, 41671014"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41701014, 41971016, 41671014"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"the Study of Environment archaeology in Zhengzhou, the Digital Environment Archaeology Specially-appointed Researcher of Henan, China","award":["210501002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["210501002"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012456","name":"Chinese National Funding of Social Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["18CKG003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["18CKG003"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012456","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"the basic scientific research of Henan","award":["210601027, 200601016"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["210601027, 200601016"]}]},{"name":"Science and technology project of Henan Province","award":["192102310019"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["192102310019"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The literature in the field of archaeological predictive models has grown in the last years, looking for new factors the most effective methods to introduce. However, where predictive models are used for archaeological heritage management, they could benefit from using a more speedy and consequently useful methods including some well-consolidated factors studied in the literature. In this paper, an operative archaeological predictive model is developed, validated and discussed, in order to test its effectiveness. It is applied to Yangshao period (5000\u20133000 BC) in the Songshan area, where Chinese civilization emerged and developed, and uses 563 known settlement sites. The satisfactory results herein achieved clearly suggest that the model herein proposed can be reliably used to predict the geographical location of unknown settlements.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi10040217","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]],"date-time":"2021-04-01T10:44:01Z","timestamp":1617273841000},"page":"217","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Towards an Operative Predictive Model for the Songshan Area during the Yangshao Period"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8244-9199","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lijie","family":"Yan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China"},{"name":"Zhengzhou Base, International Center on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Zhengzhou 450052, China"}]},{"given":"Peng","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China"},{"name":"Zhengzhou Base, International Center on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Zhengzhou 450052, China"}]},{"given":"Panpan","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China"},{"name":"Zhengzhou Base, International Center on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Zhengzhou 450052, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7414-5083","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria","family":"Danese","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Science of Cultural Heritage, National Research Council, C.da Santa Loja, 85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy"}]},{"given":"Xiang","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8804-5718","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicola","family":"Masini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Science of Cultural Heritage, National Research Council, C.da Santa Loja, 85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.9, Dengzhuang South Road, Haidi, Beijing 100094, China"}]},{"given":"Xia","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China"},{"name":"Zhengzhou Base, International Center on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Zhengzhou 450052, China"}]},{"given":"Lanbo","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China"},{"name":"Zhengzhou Base, International Center on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Zhengzhou 450052, China"}]},{"given":"Dong","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, Zhengzhou 450052, China"},{"name":"Zhengzhou Base, International Center on Space Technologies for Natural and Cultural Heritage under the Auspices of UNESCO, Zhengzhou 450052, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quaint.2018.05.038","article-title":"Use of a GIS predictive model for the identification of high altitude prehistoric human frequentations. Results of the Sessera valley project (Piedmont, Italy)","volume":"490","author":"Caracausi","year":"2018","journal-title":"Quat. Int."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaa.2019.02.002","article-title":"Toward archaeological predictive modeling in the Bosutswe region of Botswana: Utilizing multispectral satellite imagery to conceptualize ancient landscapes","volume":"54","author":"Klehm","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Anthropol. Archaeol."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Schiffer, M.B. (1986). Predictive Models for Archaeological Resource Location. Advances in Archaeological Method and Theory, Academic Press."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Judge, W.J., and Sebastian, L. (1988). Quantifying the Present and Predicting the Past: Theory, Method, and Application of Archaeological Predictive Modelling."},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"101","article-title":"A stochastic model to simulate and predict archaeological landscape taphonomy: Monitoring cultural landscapes values based on an Iranian survey project","volume":"18","author":"Niknami","year":"2007","journal-title":"Archeol. Calc."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"542","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2009.01.001","article-title":"A predictive model of archaeological potential: An example from northwestern Belize","volume":"29","author":"Vaughn","year":"2009","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1007\/s10109-009-0105-9","article-title":"Advances in Location Modeling: GIS Linkages and Contributions","volume":"12","author":"Murray","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Syst."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Wescott, K.L., and Brandon, R.J. (2000). A Predictive Model of Archaeological Site Location in the Eastern Prairie Peninsula. Practical Applications of GIS for Archaeologists: A Predictive Modelling Toolki, Taylor and Francis."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"576","DOI":"10.1080\/17445647.2018.1517699","article-title":"A framework for cultural heritage management and research: The Cancellara case study","volume":"14","author":"Biscione","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Maps"},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Allen, K.M.S., and Green, S.W. (1990). Interpreting Space: GIS and Archaeology, Taylor &Francis."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"773","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-005-2149-7","article-title":"The Relationship between Environmental Amenities and Changing Human Settlement Patterns between 1980 and 2000 in the Midwestern USA","volume":"20","author":"Gustafson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barcel\u00f3, J.A., Briz, I., and Vila, A. (1999). Predictive modelling in Dutch archaeology, joining forces. New Techniques for Old Times\u2014CAA98. Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology, Proceedings of the 26th Conference, Barcelona, Spain, 25\u201328 March 1998, Archaeopress.","DOI":"10.30861\/9780860549611"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Conolly, J., and Lake, M. (2006). Geographical Information Systems in Archaeology, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511807459"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaa.2012.10.001","article-title":"An ethnoarchaeological inductive model for predicting archaeological site location: A case-study of pastoral settlement patterns in the Val di Fiemme and Val di Sole (Trentino, Italian Alps)","volume":"32","author":"Carrer","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Anthropol. Archaeol."},{"key":"ref_15","unstructured":"Zhang, H. (2014). GIS and Archaeology Spatial Analysis, Beijing University Press."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1007\/s10745-006-9101-6","article-title":"A Comparing Inductive and Deductive Modeling of Land Use Decisions: Principles, a Model and an Illustration from the Philippines","volume":"35","author":"Overmars","year":"2007","journal-title":"Hum. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"423","article-title":"Spatial Methods for Archaeological Flood Risk: The Case Study of the Neolithic Sites in the Apulia Region (southern Italy)","volume":"Volume 8579","author":"Murgante","year":"2014","journal-title":"LNCS, ICCSA 2014, Part I"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"865","DOI":"10.1007\/s11852-017-0548-y","article-title":"Ancient settlement dynamics and predictive archaeological models for the Metapontum coastal area in Basilicata, southern Itlay: From geomorphobrlogical survey to spatial analysis","volume":"22","author":"Bavusi","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Coast. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"268","DOI":"10.1080\/00438243.1992.9980207","article-title":"An experiment in archaeological site location: Modeling in the netherlands using gis techniques","volume":"24","author":"Brandt","year":"1992","journal-title":"World Archaeol."},{"key":"ref_20","first-page":"231","article-title":"Settlement pattern modelling through boolean overlays of social and environmental variables","volume":"Volume 757","author":"Barcelo","year":"1999","journal-title":"New Techniques for Old Times, CAA 98"},{"key":"ref_21","first-page":"42","article-title":"Predictive modeling for preventive Archaeology: Overview and case study","volume":"6","author":"Danese","year":"2014","journal-title":"Cent. Eur. J. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pce.2020.102860","article-title":"A comprehensive index for assessing regional dry-hot wind events in Huang-Huai-Hai Region, China","volume":"116","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Phys. Chem. Earth"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1080\/03122417.2005.11681799","article-title":"\u2018Belief\u2019 in the past: Dempster-Shafer theory, GIS and archaeological predictive modelling","volume":"60","author":"Canning","year":"2005","journal-title":"Aust. Archaeol."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jas.2018.02.001","article-title":"Predictive modeling for archaeological site locations: Comparing logistic regression and maximal entropy in north Israel and north-east China","volume":"92","author":"Wachtel","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Archaeol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"618","DOI":"10.1016\/j.proenv.2013.06.070","article-title":"Scaling Analysis of Water Retention Curves: A Multi-fractal Approach","volume":"19","author":"Veltri","year":"2013","journal-title":"Procedia Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Judge, W.J., and Sebastian, L. (1988). Using existing archaeological survey data for model building, Quantifying the Present and Predicting the Past: Theory, Method and Application of Archaeological Predictive Modeling."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Wheatley, D., Earl, G., and Poppy, S. (2002). The use and abuse of statistical methods in archaeological site location modelling. Contemporary Themes in Archaeological Computing, Oxbow Books."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Carr, C. (1985). Predictive Modeling of Site Settlement Systems Using Multivariate Logistics. For Concordance in Archaeological Analysis, Westport Publishers."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Huang, Y.Z. (1985). Brief Comments on Changes in the Environment and Countermeasures in the Western Henan Province. J. Henan Univ., 51\u201358."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Xu, S.Z. (2000). Songshan, a monument of ancient culture. Cult. Relics Cent. China, 53\u201358."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Xia, Z.K., Liu, D.C., Wang, Y.P., and Qu, T.L. (2008). The environmental background of the MIS 3 stage paleo human activities in Zhengzhou loom cave site. Quat. Res., 96\u2013102."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Doyon, L., Wang, H., van Kolfschoten, T., and d\u2019Errico, F. (2019, January 25). Archaic hominin behavioural variability and the issue of a Chinese Middle Palaeolithic: Insights from bone technologies. Proceedings of the International Workshop on Human Origin and Evolution, Qingdao, China."},{"key":"ref_33","first-page":"521","article-title":"Excavation of Peiligang site in Xinzheng, Henan Province, 2018\u20132019","volume":"4","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Acta Archaeol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1415","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-019-0974-3","article-title":"Common carp aquaculture in Neolithic China dates back 8000 years","volume":"3","author":"Nakajima","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"Xin, Y.J., Hu, Y.Y., and Zhang, Y.Q. (2010). Excavation of Peiligang cultural relics of Tanghu site in Xinzheng City, Henan, 2007. Archaeology, 3\u201323."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Zhang, S.L., and Guo, G.S. (1988). Cultural stages of Dianjuntai site and analysis of Yangshao cultural relics. Cult. Relics Cent. China, 49\u201353."},{"key":"ref_37","first-page":"15","article-title":"On the ruins of \u201cHeluo ancient country\u201d in Shuanghuaishu, Gongyi, Henan","volume":"8","author":"Fan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cult. Relics Cent. China"},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Lu, P., Yang, R.X., and Chen, P.P. (2018). Spatial morphological characteristics and environmental background of pre Qin City sites in Zhengzhou. Early Chin. Stud., 54\u201369."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"Zhang, X.H. (2019). Excavation Bulletin of Guchengzhai site in Xinmi, Henan Province, 2016-2017. Chin. Archaeol., 3\u201313."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Pang, X.X., and Gao, J.T. (2006). Investigation of agricultural economy in the process of civilization in Central Plains. Agric. Archaeol., 1\u201314."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Meng, X.Z. (2009). On Yangshao culture. Pop. Lit. Art, 203."},{"key":"ref_42","first-page":"568","article-title":"Study on the spatial relationship between cities and general settlements from Neolithic to Xia Shang period in Henan Province","volume":"40","author":"Yan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Quat. Sci."},{"key":"ref_43","unstructured":"Liu, L. (2007). China\u2019s Neolithic Age: Towards the Early Stage of the Nation, Cultural Relics Press."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tan, L., Li, Y., Wang, X., Cai, Y., Lin, F., Cheng, H., Ma, L., Sinha, A., and Edwards, R.L. (2020). Holocene Monsoon Change and Abrupt Events on the Western Chinese Loess Plateau as Revealed by Accurately Dated Stalagmites. Geophys. Res. Lett.","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL090273"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lu, P., Mo, D., Wang, H., Yang, R., Tian, Y., Chen, P., Lasaponara, R., and Masini, N. (2017). On the Relationship between Holocene Geomorphic Evolution of Rivers and Prehistoric Settlements Distribution in the Songshan Mountain Region of China. Sustainability, 114.","DOI":"10.3390\/su9010114"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2019.104232","article-title":"The impact of Holocene alluvial landscape evolution on an ancient settlement in the southeastern piedmont of Songshan Mountain, Central China: A study from the Shiyuan site","volume":"183","author":"Lu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Catena"},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2020.104956","article-title":"Evolution of Holocene alluvial landscapes in the northeastern Songshan Region, Central China: Chronology, models and socio-economic impact","volume":"197","author":"Lu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Catena"},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quaint.2019.07.015","article-title":"Landforms influence the development of ancient agriculture in the Songshan area, central China","volume":"521","author":"Liao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Quat. Int."},{"key":"ref_49","first-page":"43","article-title":"Application of GIS in the study of Neolithic sites in Suo, Xu and Ku river basins","volume":"24","author":"Yunfei","year":"2019","journal-title":"Yellow River Loess Huang Zhong Ren"},{"key":"ref_50","first-page":"256","article-title":"Remote Sensing Archaeology of ancient river channel in Yiluo basin, northern Songshan","volume":"Volume 1","author":"Ruixia","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sinochem Civilization and Songshan Civilization Research"},{"key":"ref_51","unstructured":"Tan, Q.X. (1987). <Shan Jing> The River Downstream and its Tributaries Test, People\u2019s Publishing House."},{"key":"ref_52","unstructured":"Henan Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography of the Total Economic Commission (1990). Agricultural Resources and Agricultural Zoning Atlas in Henan Province, Surveying and Mapping Press."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"334","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-5823.2012.00187_14.x","article-title":"Quantitative Data Analysis with IBM SPSS 17, 18 & 19: A Guide for Social Scientists","volume":"80","author":"Starkings","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int. Stat. Rev."},{"key":"ref_54","unstructured":"Linstone, H., and Turoff, M. (2002). The Delphi Method Techniques and Application, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company."},{"key":"ref_55","first-page":"65","article-title":"Spatial differentiation of ecological sensitivity in Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province","volume":"25","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. China Agric. Univ."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aghelpour, P., Mohammadi, B., Biazar, S.M., Kisi, O., and Sourmirinezhad, Z. (2020). A Theoretical Approach for Forecasting Different Types of Drought Simultaneously, Using Entropy Theory and Machine-Learning Methods. ISPRS Int. J. Geo.-Inf., 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi9120701"},{"key":"ref_57","first-page":"123","article-title":"The Research on Regional Land Suitability Appraisal for a Multi-objective Land-use\u2014A Case Study on Linyi City","volume":"14","author":"Liu","year":"2007","journal-title":"Res. Soil Water Conserv."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1224","DOI":"10.1080\/17538947.2016.1181213","article-title":"Multi-frequency satellite radar imaging of cultural heritage: The case studies of the Yumen Frontier Pass and Niya ruins in the Western Regions of the Silk Road Corridor","volume":"9","author":"Chen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Digit. Earth"},{"key":"ref_59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Masini, N., and Soldovieri, F. (2017). Sensing the Past from Space: Approaches to Site Detection. Sensing the Past. From Artifact to Historical Site, Springer International Publishing.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-50518-3"},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Masini, N., Capozzoli, L., Chen, P., Chen, F., Romano, G., Lu, P., Tang, P., Sileo, M., Ge, Q., and Lasaponara, R. (2017). Towards an operational use of geophysics for Archaeology in Henan (China): Archaeogeophysical investigations, approach and results in Kaifeng. Remote Sens., 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs9080809"},{"key":"ref_61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.3390\/heritage1010002","article-title":"A Spatial Pattern Analysis of Frontier Passes in China\u2019s Northern Silk Road Region Using a Scale Optimization BLR Archaeological Predictive Model","volume":"1","author":"Zhu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Heritage"}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/10\/4\/217\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]],"date-time":"2025-10-13T13:25:50Z","timestamp":1760361950000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/10\/4\/217"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]},"references-count":61,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi10040217"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi10040217","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2220-9964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,1]]}}}