{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,30]],"date-time":"2025-10-30T07:14:36Z","timestamp":1761808476472,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,25]],"date-time":"2021-09-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1632528000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003392","name":"Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2018J01743"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2018J01743"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003392","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The evaluation and trend prediction of tourism economic vulnerability (TEV) in major tourist cities are necessary for formulating tourism economic strategies scientifically and promoting the sustainable development of regional tourism. In this study, 58 major tourist cities in China were taken as the research object, and an evaluation index system of TEV was constructed from two aspects of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. On the basis of the entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, obstacle diagnosis model, and BP neural network model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns, obstacle factors, and future trends of TEV in major tourist cities in China from 2004 to 2019. The results show three key findings: (1) In terms of spatiotemporal patterns, the TEV index of most of China\u2019s tourist cities has been on the rise from 2004 to 2019. Cities throughout the coast of China\u2019s Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration show high vulnerability, whereas low vulnerability has a scattered distribution in China\u2019s northeast, central, and western regions. (2) The proportion of international tourists out of total tourists, tourism output density, urban industrial sulfur dioxide emissions per unit area, urban industrial smoke and dust emission per unit area, and discharge of urban industrial wastewater per unit area are the five major obstacles affecting the vulnerability degree of the tourism economy. (3) According to the prediction results of TEV from 2021 to 2030, although the TEV of many tourist cities in China is increasing year by year, cities with low TEV levels occupy the dominant position. Research results can provide reference for tourist cities to prevent tourism crises from occurring and to reasonably improve the resilience of the tourism economic system.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi10100644","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,27]],"date-time":"2021-09-27T04:55:33Z","timestamp":1632718533000},"page":"644","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Spatiotemporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of Tourism Economic Vulnerability in China\u2019s Major Tourist Cities"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Chengkun","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Tourism, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350108, China"}]},{"given":"Feiyang","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8473-1887","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Deping","family":"Chu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Tourism, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350108, China"},{"name":"The Higher Educational Key Laboratory for Smart Tourism of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350108, China"}]},{"given":"Lanlan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Tourism, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350108, China"}]},{"given":"Jiawei","family":"Liao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Tourism, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350108, China"}]},{"given":"Junqian","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"West Center for Economic Research, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Timmerman, P. 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