{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,19]],"date-time":"2026-03-19T18:09:09Z","timestamp":1773943749993,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]],"date-time":"2022-09-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1664496000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["41901311"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41901311"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42101273"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42101273"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2020A1515011225"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020A1515011225"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003453","name":"Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["41901311"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41901311"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003453","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003453","name":"Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42101273"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42101273"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003453","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003453","name":"Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2020A1515011225"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020A1515011225"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003453","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Many countries, including China, have implemented the spatial government policy widely known as urban growth boundary (UGB) for managing future urban growth. However, few studies have asked why we need UGB, especially pre-evaluating the utility of UGB for reshaping the future spatial patterns of cities. In this research, we proposed a constrained urban growth simulation model (CUGSM) which coupled Markov chain (MC), random forest (RF), and patch growth based cellular automata (Patch-CA) to simulate urban growth. The regulatory effect of UGB was coupled with CUGSM based on a random probability game method. Guangzhou city, a metropolitan area located in the Peral River Delta of China, was taken as a case study. Historical urban growth from 1995 to 2005 and random forests were used to calibrate the conversion rules of Patch-CA, and the urban patterns simulated and observed in 2015 were used to identify the simulation accuracy. The results showed that the Kappa and figure of merit (FOM) indices of the unconstrained Patch-CA were just 0.7914 and 0.1930, respectively, which indicated that the actual urban growth was reshaped by some force beyond what Patch-CA has learned. We further compared the simulation scenarios in 2035 with and without considering the UGB constraint, and the difference between them is as high as 21.14%, which demonstrates that UGB plays an important role in the spatial reshaping of future urban growth. Specifically, the newly added urban land outside the UGB has decreased from 25.13% to 16.86% after considering the UGB constraint; particularly, the occupation of agricultural space and ecological space has been dramatically reduced. This research has demonstrated that the utility of UGB for reshaping future urban growth is pronounced, and it is necessary for the Chinese government to further strengthen UGB policy to promote sustainable urban growth.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi11100511","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,8]],"date-time":"2022-10-08T22:19:27Z","timestamp":1665267567000},"page":"511","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Quantify the Potential Spatial Reshaping Utility of Urban Growth Boundary (UGB): Evidence from the Constrained Scenario Simulation Model"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Shifa","family":"Ma","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]},{"given":"Haiyan","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]},{"given":"Xiwen","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]},{"given":"Dixiang","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]},{"given":"Yunnan","family":"Cai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]},{"given":"Yabo","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]},{"given":"Guanwei","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2018.02.055","article-title":"High-resolution multi-temporal map-ping of global urban land using Landsat images based on the Google Earth Engine Platform","volume":"209","author":"Liu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1016\/j.progress.2011.04.001","article-title":"The dimensions of global urban expansion: Estimates and projections for all countries, 2000\u20132050","volume":"75","author":"Angel","year":"2011","journal-title":"Prog. Plan."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"537","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-14386-x","article-title":"Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways","volume":"11","author":"Chen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16083","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1211658109","article-title":"Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct im-pacts on biodiversity and carbon pools","volume":"109","author":"Seto","year":"2012","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104186","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2021.104186","article-title":"As the city grows, what do farmers do? A systematic review of urban and peri-urban agriculture under rapid urban growth across the Global South","volume":"215","author":"Follmann","year":"2021","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"148150","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.148150","article-title":"Spatio-temporal evaluation of the urban agglomeration expansion in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and its impact on ecological lands","volume":"790","author":"Zhu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2018.05.066","article-title":"Linking the benefits of ecosystem services to sustainable spatial planning of ecological conservation strategies","volume":"222","author":"Huang","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100570","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envdev.2020.100570","article-title":"Putting the Ecosystem Services idea at work: Applications on impact assessment and territorial planning","volume":"38","author":"Staiano","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ. Dev."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1080\/01944360801944997","article-title":"Imagining Portland\u2019s urban growth boundary: Planning regulation as cultural icon","volume":"74","author":"Abbott","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Am. Plan. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2012.10.013","article-title":"Urban growth boundaries of the Beijing Metropolitan Area: Comparison of simulation and artwork","volume":"31","author":"Long","year":"2013","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2018.04.016","article-title":"Delineating multi-scenario urban growth boundaries with a CA-based FLUS model and morphological method","volume":"177","author":"Liang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/j.habitatint.2017.09.009","article-title":"A new perspective for urban development boundary delineation based on SLEUTH-InVEST model","volume":"70","author":"Liu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Habitat Int."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2016.11.004","article-title":"Delimiting the urban growth boundaries with a modified ant colony optimization model","volume":"62","author":"Ma","year":"2017","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120361","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.120361","article-title":"The delineation of urban growth boundaries in complex ecological environment areas by using cellular automata and a dual-environmental evaluation","volume":"256","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2013.05.021","article-title":"A conceptual framework and its software implementation to generate spatial decision support systems for land use planning","volume":"35","author":"Estrella","year":"2013","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105013","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2020.105013","article-title":"A spatial land-use planning support system based on game theory","volume":"99","author":"Maleki","year":"2020","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105773","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105773","article-title":"Tracking the history of urban expansion in Guangzhou (China) during 1665\u20132017: Evidence from historical maps and remote sensing images","volume":"112","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"380","article-title":"The simulation and prediction of spatio-temporal urban growth trends using cellular automata models: A review","volume":"52","author":"Aburas","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2019.04.005","article-title":"Improving spatial accuracy of urban growth simulation models using ensemble forecasting approaches","volume":"76","year":"2019","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104168","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2021.104168","article-title":"Simulating urban land growth by incorporating historical information into a cellular automata model","volume":"214","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"402","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2019.04.087","article-title":"Urban growth simulation guided by ecological constraints in Beijing city: Methods and implications for spatial planning","volume":"243","author":"Deng","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102833","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2021.102833","article-title":"Effect of zoning plans on urban land-use change: A multi-scenario simulation for supporting sustainable urban growth","volume":"69","author":"Domingo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105667","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105667","article-title":"Urban expansion simulation under constraint of multiple ecosystem services (MESs) based on cellular automata (CA)-Markov model: Scenario analysis and policy implications","volume":"108","author":"Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_24","first-page":"64","article-title":"Application of Cellular automata and Markov-chain model in geospatial environmental modeling\u2014A review","volume":"5","author":"Ghosh","year":"2017","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Appl. Soc. Environ."},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"100474","article-title":"Scenario simulation studies of urban development using remote sensing and GIS: Review","volume":"22","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Appl. Soc. Environ."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2010.03.001","article-title":"Cellular automata models for the simulation of real-world urban processes: A review and analysis","volume":"96","author":"Miranda","year":"2010","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Kobayashi, A. (2020). Geosimulation and urban modeling. International Encyclopedia of Human Geography, Elsevier. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103444","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2021.103444","article-title":"Firefly algorithm-based cellular automata for reproducing urban growth and predicting future scenarios","volume":"76","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"100461","article-title":"Integrating machine learning with Markov chain and cellular automata models for modelling urban land use change","volume":"21","author":"Okwuashi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Appl. Soc. Environ."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101595","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101595","article-title":"Integrating a Forward Feature Selection algorithm, Random Forest, and Cellular Automata to extrapolate urban growth in the Tehran-Karaj Region of Iran","volume":"87","author":"Minaei","year":"2021","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.010","article-title":"Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models","volume":"229","author":"An","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2019.02.011","article-title":"Simulating the urban growth of a predominantly informal Ghanaian city-region with a cellular automata model: Implications for urban planning and policy","volume":"105","author":"Agyemang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104445","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2019.104445","article-title":"A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogot\u00e1 region","volume":"92","author":"Guzman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"134","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2017.12.001","article-title":"Exploring prospective urban growth trends under different economic outlooks and land-use planning scenarios: The case of Athens","volume":"90","author":"Gounaridis","year":"2018","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102045","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2020.102045","article-title":"Multi-scenario simulation of urban land change in Shanghai by random forest and CA-Markov model","volume":"55","author":"Zhou","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105572","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2019.105572","article-title":"Urban sprawl scenario simulations based on cellular automata and ordered weighted averaging ecological constraints","volume":"107","author":"Liao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102455","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2020.102455","article-title":"Urban expansion simulation towards low-carbon development: A case study of Wuhan, China","volume":"63","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2019.04.004","article-title":"How current and future urban patterns respond to urban planning? An integrated cellular automata modeling approach","volume":"92","author":"Tong","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105288","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105288","article-title":"Territory spatial planning and national governance system in China","volume":"102","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"224","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2008.02.010","article-title":"Containing urban sprawl\u2014Evaluating effectiveness of urban growth boundaries set by the Swiss Land Use Plan","volume":"26","author":"Gennaio","year":"2009","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102548","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2020.102548","article-title":"Forecasting land-use changes in Mashhad Metropolitan area using Cellular Automata and Markov chain model for 2016\u20132030","volume":"64","author":"Rahnama","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101689","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101689","article-title":"Calibration of cellular automata urban growth models from urban genesis onwards\u2014A novel application of Markov chain Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation","volume":"90","author":"Yu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1625","DOI":"10.1111\/tgis.12756","article-title":"Modeling urban regions: Comparing random forest and support vector machines for cellular automata","volume":"25","author":"Andreas","year":"2021","journal-title":"Trans. GIS"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1399","DOI":"10.1080\/13658816.2019.1579333","article-title":"Assessing the performance of 38 machine learning models: The case of land consumption rates in Bavaria, Germany","volume":"33","author":"Hagenauer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101727","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101727","article-title":"An extended patch-based cellular automaton to simulate horizontal and vertical urban growth under the shared socioeconomic pathways","volume":"91","author":"Chen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101402","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101402","article-title":"Patch-based cellular automata model of urban growth simulation: Integrating feedback between quantitative composition and spatial configuration","volume":"79","author":"Yang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"Guangzhou Statistics Bureau (2021). Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook 2021, China Statistics Press."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.habitatint.2017.04.015","article-title":"Construction of a Spatial Planning system at city-level: Case study of \u201cintegration of multi-planning\u201d in Yulin City, China","volume":"65","author":"Zhou","year":"2017","journal-title":"Habitat Int."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"(2022). Guide to the Compilation of Municipal Territorial Space General Planning (Trial), Ministry of Natural Resources."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1007\/s00168-007-0138-2","article-title":"Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change","volume":"42","author":"Pontius","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann. Reg. Sci."}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/11\/10\/511\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:44:48Z","timestamp":1760143488000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/11\/10\/511"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi11100511"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi11100511","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2220-9964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]]}}}