{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T01:44:09Z","timestamp":1760060649543,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,7]],"date-time":"2025-09-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757203200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"The Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program","award":["No. 2022xjkk0600"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No. 2022xjkk0600"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Geological Disasters (Geo-disasters) are common in the Ili River Basin, with extreme precipitation being a major triggering factor. As the frequency and intensity of these events increase, the associated risks also rise. This study proposes a hazard assessment framework that integrates extreme precipitation recurrence periods with Geo-disaster susceptibility. Furthermore, based on a comprehensive risk assessment model encompassing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster mitigation capacity, the study evaluates Geo-disaster risk in the Ili River Basin under extreme precipitation conditions. Hazard levels are assessed by integrating geo-disaster susceptibility with recurrence periods of extreme precipitation, resulting in hazard and risk maps under various conditions. The susceptibility indicator system is refined using K-means clustering, the certainty factor (CF) model, and Pearson correlation to reduce redundancy. Key findings include: (a) Geo-disasters are influenced by a combination of factors. High-susceptibility areas are typically found in moderately sloped terrain (8.5\u201317.64\u00b0) at elevations between 1412 m and 2234 m, especially on east- and southeast-facing slopes. Lithology, soil, hydrology, fault proximity, and the topographic wetness index (TWI) are the primary influences, while high NDVI values reduce susceptibility. (b) The hazard pattern varies with the recurrence period of extreme precipitation. Shorter periods lead to broader high-hazard zones, while longer periods concentrate hazards, particularly in Yining City. (c) Exposure is higher in the east, vulnerability aligns with transportation networks, and disaster mitigation capacity is stronger in the north, particularly in Yining. (d) Low-risk areas are found in valleys and flat terrains, while medium to high-risk zones concentrate in southeastern Zhaosu, Tekes, and Gongliu counties. Some economically active regions require special attention due to their high exposure and vulnerability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi14090346","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,8]],"date-time":"2025-09-08T10:29:07Z","timestamp":1757327347000},"page":"346","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Geological Disaster Risk Assessment Under Extreme Precipitation Conditions in the Ili River Basin"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-9032-476X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xinxu","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Emergency Technology and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jinghui","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Emergency Technology and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhiyong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Integrated Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, Department of Emergency Management of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xushan","family":"Yuan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Emergency Technology and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yanmin","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Emergency Technology and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zixuan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Emergency Technology and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2161","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-18-2161-2018","article-title":"Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016","volume":"18","author":"Froude","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. 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