{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T09:59:16Z","timestamp":1775642356511,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,1]],"date-time":"2016-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1459468800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001655","name":"German Academic Exchange Service","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001655","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>It is generally acknowledged that the urban environment presents different types of risk factors, but how the structural effects of areas influence the risk levels in neighboring areas has been less widely investigated. This research assesses the local effects of burglary contributory factors on burglary over small areas in a large metropolitan region. A comparative framework is developed for analyzing the effects of geographic dependence on burglary rates, and for assessing how such dependence conditions the community context and the urban land use. A local indicators spatial autocorrelation analysis assesses burglaries over five years (2011\u20132015) to identify risk clusters. Thereafter, effects of different variables (e.g., unemployment, building density) on burglary frequency are estimated in a series of regression models while controlling for changes in the risk levels of nearby surrounding areas. Results uncover strong evidence that the configuration of the surroundings influences risk. After controlling for area-based interaction, patterns are identified that contrast with the previous literature, such as lower burglary frequency in areas with higher tenancy in social housing units. Together the findings demonstrate that the spatial arrangement of areas is as crucial as contextual crime factors, particularly when assessing the risk for small areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi5040047","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,1]],"date-time":"2016-04-01T10:31:20Z","timestamp":1459506680000},"page":"47","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Modeling Spatial Interactions between Areas to Assess the Burglary Risk"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"5","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6822-4954","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lucy","family":"Mburu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"GIScience Research Group, Institute of Geography, Heidelberg University, Berliner Street 48, Heidelberg D-69120, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mohamed","family":"Bakillah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"GIScience Research Group, Institute of Geography, Heidelberg University, Berliner Street 48, Heidelberg D-69120, Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"981","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-9125.2003.tb01011.x","article-title":"Effects of attractiveness, opportunity and accessibility to burglars on residential burglary rates of urban neighborhoods","volume":"41","author":"Bernasco","year":"2003","journal-title":"Criminology"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hirschfield, A., Birkin, M., Brunsdon, C., Malleson, N, and Newton, A. (2013). How places influence crime: The impact of surrounding areas on neighbourhood burglary rates in a British city. Urban Stud.","DOI":"10.1177\/0042098013492232"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9574.00235","article-title":"Analysing neighbourhood influence in criminology","volume":"57","author":"Elffers","year":"2003","journal-title":"Stat. Neerlandica"},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Anselin, L., and Raymond, F. (2012). New Directions in Spatial Econometrics, Springer."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-013-9208-z","article-title":"Risky facilities: Crime radiators or crime absorbers? A comparison of internal and external levels of theft","volume":"30","author":"Bowers","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Quant. Criminol."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mburu, L., and Helbich, M. (2016). Crime risk estimation with a commuter-harmonized ambient population. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr.","DOI":"10.1080\/24694452.2016.1163252"},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"Brantingham, P.J., and Brantingham, P.L. (1981). Environmental Criminology, Sage Publications."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Eck, J.E., and Weisburd, D.L. (2015). Crime and Place: Crime Prevention Studies, Willow Tree Press, Inc."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ceccato, V., and Newton, A. (2015). Safety and Security in Transit Environments, Palgrave Macmillan.","DOI":"10.1057\/9781137457653"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1177\/0011128713478130","article-title":"Home nodes, criminogenic places, and parolee failure: Testing an environmental model of offender risk","volume":"62","author":"Miller","year":"2013","journal-title":"Crime Delinq."},{"key":"ref_11","unstructured":"Wright, R.T., and Decker, S.H. (1996). Burglars on the Job: Streetlife and Residential Break-Ins, Northeastern University Press."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"236","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2009.10.005","article-title":"Crime reduction through simulation: An agent-based model of burglary","volume":"34","author":"Malleson","year":"2010","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"918","DOI":"10.1126\/science.277.5328.918","article-title":"Neighborhoods and violent crime: A multilevel study of collective efficacy","volume":"277","author":"Sampson","year":"1997","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sutherland, A., Brunton-Smith, I., and Jackson, J. (2013). Collective efficacy, deprivation and violence in London. Br. J. Criminol.","DOI":"10.1093\/bjc\/azt050"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"186","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcrimjus.2015.03.002","article-title":"Metropolitan local crime clusters: Structural concentration effects and the systemic model","volume":"43","author":"Johnson","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Crim. Justice"},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"Shaw, C.R., and McKay, H.D. (1969). Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. Criminology Theory, University of Chicago Press."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-9125.1983.tb00262.x","article-title":"Structural density and criminal victimization","volume":"21","author":"Sampson","year":"1983","journal-title":"Criminology"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1080\/13218719709524910","article-title":"An analysis of spatial patterns in serial rape, arson, and burglary: The utility of the circle theory of environmental range for psychological profiling","volume":"4","author":"Kocsis","year":"1997","journal-title":"Psychiatry Psychol. Law"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brantingham, P., Gl\u00e4sser, U., Jackson, P., and Vajihollahi, M. (2009). Modeling Criminal Activity in Urban Landscapes, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-211-09442-6_2"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mawby, R. (2013). Burglary, Routledge.","DOI":"10.4324\/9781843924241"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1093\/bjc\/44.1.55","article-title":"The stability of space-time clusters of burglary","volume":"44","author":"Johnson","year":"2004","journal-title":"Br. J. Criminol."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Vandeviver, C., van Daele, S., and Vander Beken, T. (2014). What makes long crime trips worth undertaking? Balancing costs and benefits in burglars\u2019 journey to crime. Br. J. Criminol.","DOI":"10.1093\/bjc\/azu078"},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Farrell, G., and Pease, K. (1993). Once Bitten, Twice Bitten: Repeat Victimisation and Its Implications for Crime Prevention, Home Office. Paper No. 46."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"615","DOI":"10.1093\/bjc\/43.3.615","article-title":"Infectious burglaries. A test of the near repeat hypothesis","volume":"43","author":"Townsley","year":"2003","journal-title":"Br. J. Criminol."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1177\/0011128710364804","article-title":"Placing the neighborhood accessibility-burglary link in social-structural context","volume":"60","author":"Ward","year":"2010","journal-title":"Crime Delinq."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-008-9047-5","article-title":"Spatio-temporal interaction of urban crime","volume":"24","author":"Grubesic","year":"2008","journal-title":"Quant. Criminol."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1002\/jip.109","article-title":"Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling of single and multiple crime-type series in Baltimore County, MD","volume":"6","author":"Leitner","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Invest. Psychol. Off."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1080\/00330124.2014.886921","article-title":"Evaluating the accuracy and effectiveness of criminal geographic profiling methods: The case of Dandora, Kenya","volume":"67","author":"Mburu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Prof. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Walker, W.C., Sim, S., and Keys-Mathews, L. (2014). Forensic GIS, Springer."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1177\/0022427810365906","article-title":"Commercial density, residential concentration, and crime: Land use patterns and violence in neighborhood context","volume":"47","author":"Browning","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Res. Crime Delinq."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1559\/15230406382213","article-title":"The impact of hurricanes on crime: A spatio-temporal analysis in the city of Houston, Texas","volume":"38","author":"Leitner","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cartogr. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Montoya, L., Junger, M., and Ongena, Y. (2014). The relation between residential property and its surroundings and day-and night-time residential burglary. Environ. Behav.","DOI":"10.1177\/0013916514551047"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-015-9251-z","article-title":"The effect of commuting on city-level crime rates","volume":"31","author":"Stults","year":"2015","journal-title":"Quant. Criminol."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-9125.2011.00238.x","article-title":"Spreading the wealth: The effect of the distribution of income and race\/ethnicity across households and neighborhoods on city crime trajectories","volume":"49","author":"Hipp","year":"2011","journal-title":"Criminology"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"429","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.bjc.a014256","article-title":"Victimization revisited: A case study of non-residential repeat burglary on merseyside","volume":"38","author":"Bowers","year":"1998","journal-title":"Br. J. Criminol."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Cromwell, P.F., Olson, J.N., and Avary, D.W. (1991). Breaking and Entering: An Ethnographic Analysis of Burglary, Sage."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bean, P. (2014). Drugs and Crime, Routledge.","DOI":"10.4324\/9780203077146"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"277","DOI":"10.1177\/0022427813512494","article-title":"Criminogenic facilities and crime across street segments in Philadelphia uncovering evidence about the spatial extent of facility influence","volume":"51","author":"Groff","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Res. Crime Delinq."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pointer, G. The UK\u2019s Major Urban Areas. Focus on People and Migration, Available online: www.statistics.gov.uk\/downloads\/theme_compendia\/fom2005\/03_FOPM_UrbanAreas.pdf.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-75096-2_3"},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Palmer, G. The Poverty Site: U.K Income Inequalities. Available online: http:\/\/www.poverty.org.uk\/09\/index.shtml?."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Office for National Statistics The 2013 ONS Regional Characteristics Analysis for London, Available online: http:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/ons\/rel\/regional-trends."},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Office for National Statistics Statistical Bulletin: Crime in England and Wales: Year Ending June 2015, Available online: http:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/crimeandjustice\/bulletins\/crimeinenglandandwales\/2015-10-15."},{"key":"ref_43","first-page":"22","article-title":"UK indices of multiple deprivation\u2014A way to make comparisons across constituent countries easier","volume":"53","author":"Payne","year":"2012","journal-title":"Health Stat. Q."},{"key":"ref_44","unstructured":"Brown, J. 10 London Boroughs Worth More Than All the Homes in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Available online: http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/uk\/home-news\/10-london-boroughs-worth-more-than-all-the-homes-in-wales-scotland-and-northern-ireland-8478990.html."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2015.08.004","article-title":"A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level","volume":"64","author":"Vandeviver","year":"2015","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2011.03.022","article-title":"Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?","volume":"102","author":"Morse","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Financ. Econ."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.3818\/JRP.14.2.2012.79","article-title":"Examining metal theft in context: An opportunity theory approach","volume":"14","author":"Posick","year":"2012","journal-title":"Justice Res. Policy"},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1102","DOI":"10.1080\/07418825.2012.754921","article-title":"\u201cA plague on both your houses?\u201d: Risks, repeats and reconsiderations of urban residential burglary","volume":"31","author":"Moreto","year":"2014","journal-title":"Justice Q."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcrimjus.2013.01.003","article-title":"Need drugs, will travel?: The distances to crime of illegal drug buyers","volume":"41","author":"Johnson","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Crim. Justice"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Piquero, A., and Weisburd, R. (2010). Handbook of Quantitative Criminology, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-77650-7"},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x","article-title":"Local indicators of spatial association\u2014LISA","volume":"27","author":"Anselin","year":"1995","journal-title":"Geogr. Anal."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fischer, M.M., and Getis, A. (2010). Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-03647-7"},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Singh, A., Pathak, P.K., Chauhan, R.K., and Pan, W. (2011). Infant and child mortality in India in the last two decades: A geospatial analysis. PLoS ONE, 6.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0026856"},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"LeSage, J., and Pace, K.R. (2009). Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, CRC Press.","DOI":"10.1201\/9781420064254"},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1080\/15230406.2014.991426","article-title":"Repeat and near-repeat burglaries and offender involvement in a large Chinese city","volume":"42","author":"Wu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Cartogr. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_56","unstructured":"Openshaw, S. (1984). The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem, Geo Books."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bruinsma, G., and Weisburd, D. (2014). Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-5690-2"}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/5\/4\/47\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T19:21:40Z","timestamp":1760210500000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/5\/4\/47"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,1]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,4]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi5040047"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi5040047","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2220-9964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,1]]}}}