{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,15]],"date-time":"2026-05-15T15:19:01Z","timestamp":1778858341902,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,11]],"date-time":"2017-04-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1491868800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG) to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d, \u201cliberalisation\u201d and a \u201clowered agriculture production\u201d. The \u201cbusiness-as-usual\u201d scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12.3% in 2009 decreasing by 3.3% in 2050. Losses expected under a \u201cbusiness-as-usual\u201d scenario in agriculture, are mostly due to the conversion to shrubland and forest. Further losses in extensive agriculture are expected under the \u201cliberalisation\u201d scenario, decreasing by 10.3 % in 2050. Along with a marked increase in the closed and open forest area, increasing from 27.1% in 2009 to 42.3% by 2050. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the \u201clowered agricultural production\u201d scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi6040115","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,11]],"date-time":"2017-04-11T11:41:42Z","timestamp":1491910902000},"page":"115","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"6","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8260-0530","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana","family":"Gago-Silva","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"enviroSPACE Lab., Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, UNI VOGT, 66 Bd Carl Vogt, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4696-5313","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicolas","family":"Ray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"enviroSPACE Lab., Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, UNI VOGT, 66 Bd Carl Vogt, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8279-8567","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anthony","family":"Lehmann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"enviroSPACE Lab., Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, UNI VOGT, 66 Bd Carl Vogt, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland"},{"name":"Forel Institute, University of Geneva, UNI VOGT, 66 Bd Carl Vogt, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3465","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1100480108","article-title":"Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity","volume":"108","author":"Lambin","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2014.02.008","article-title":"Future land-use change scenarios for the Black Sea catchment","volume":"46","author":"Mancosu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Policy"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2005.11.024","article-title":"Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes","volume":"114","author":"Verburg","year":"2006","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-8809(01)00199-2","article-title":"Predicting land-use change","volume":"85","author":"Veldkamp","year":"2001","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1167","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-009-9355-7","article-title":"Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: Exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the dyna-clue model","volume":"24","author":"Verburg","year":"2009","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2010.07.019","article-title":"Potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change on soil erosion in the Eastern ARC Mountains of Kenya","volume":"123","author":"Maeda","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"155","article-title":"Effects of land-cover change on soil erosion in the saxon Switzerland National Park region","volume":"140","author":"Wolf","year":"2009","journal-title":"Erde"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(02)00059-5","article-title":"Dinamica\u2014A stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian Colonization Frontier","volume":"154","author":"Cerqueira","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2010.10.007","article-title":"Evaluating choices in multi-process landscape evolution models","volume":"125","author":"Temme","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N.W., D\u00f6ll, P., Kabat, P., Jim\u00e9nez, B., Miller, K.A., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I.A. (2007). Freshwater Resources and Their Management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-011-0236-7","article-title":"Land-cover changes and recent hydrological evolution in the Duero Basin (Spain)","volume":"12","year":"2012","journal-title":"Reg. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2015.06.021","article-title":"An independent and combined effect analysis of land use and climate change in the upper Rhone River Watershed, Switzerland","volume":"63","author":"Rahman","year":"2015","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"773","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-007-9077-7","article-title":"Spatial sensitivity of species habitat patterns to scenarios of land use change (Switzerland)","volume":"22","author":"Bolliger","year":"2007","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0021-8901.2004.00893.x","article-title":"Consequences of pastoral abandonment for the structure and diversity of the Alpine avifauna","volume":"41","author":"Laiolo","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jnc.2007.04.002","article-title":"Mountain grassland biodiversity: Impact of site conditions versus management type","volume":"16","author":"Kampmann","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Nat. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1007\/s10021-008-9207-3","article-title":"Linking forest fire regimes and climate\u2014A historical analysis in a dry inner Alpine Valley","volume":"12","author":"Zumbrunnen","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecosystems"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2006.04.003","article-title":"Driving forces and rates of landscape change as a promising combination for landscape change research\u2014An application on the northern fringe of the Swiss Alps","volume":"24","author":"Schneeberger","year":"2007","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"163","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-009-9417-x","article-title":"Monitoring and modelling landscape dynamics","volume":"25","author":"Houet","year":"2010","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"857","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-004-0245-8","article-title":"Driving forces of landscape change\u2014Current and new directions","volume":"19","author":"Hersperger","year":"2004","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1068\/b307","article-title":"Determinants of land-use change patterns in The Netherlands","volume":"31","author":"Verburg","year":"2004","journal-title":"Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1016\/S0198-9715(02)00042-X","article-title":"Stochastic cellular automata modeling of urban land use dynamics: Empirical development and estimation","volume":"27","author":"Batty","year":"2003","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-8809(01)00200-6","article-title":"Theory, data, methods: Developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change","volume":"85","author":"Irwin","year":"2001","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Soares-Filho, B.S., Rodrigues, H., and Costa, W. (2016, April 28). Modeling Environmental Dynamics with Dinamica Ego. Available online: http:\/\/www.csr.ufmg.br\/dinamica\/tutorial\/Dinamica_EGO_guidebook.pdf."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.027","article-title":"The hydrologic impact of land cover changes and hydropower stations in the Alpine Rhine Basin","volume":"187","author":"Verbunt","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Walz, A. (2006). Land Use Modelling for an Integrated Approach to Regional Development in the Swiss Alps. [Ph.D. Thesis, University of Zurich]."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2014.12.009","article-title":"Future landscapes of Switzerland: Risk areas for urbanisation and land abandonment","volume":"57","author":"Price","year":"2015","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.050","article-title":"Assessing land-use statistics to model land cover change in a mountainous landscape in the European Alps","volume":"212","author":"Rutherford","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"567","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1008168209725","article-title":"A case study of forest change in the Swiss Lowlands","volume":"14","author":"Burgi","year":"1999","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2009.10.002","article-title":"Modeling susceptibility to landslides using the weight of evidence approach: Western Colorado, USA","volume":"115","author":"Regmi","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01867441","article-title":"Land suitability model for the evaluation of land-use change","volume":"3","author":"Roberts","year":"1979","journal-title":"Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2006.05.001","article-title":"Agricultural land abandonment and natural forest re-growth in the Swiss mountains: A spatially explicit economic analysis","volume":"118","author":"Gellrich","year":"2007","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jopp, F., Reuter, H., Breckling, B., and M\u00fcller, F. (2011). What are the general conditions under which ecological models can be applied?. Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-05029-9"},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"VanDerWal, J., Falconi, L., Januchowski, S., Shoo, L., and Storlie, C. (2016, April 28). Sdmtools: Species Distribution Modelling Tools: Tools for Processing Data Associated with Species Distribution Modelling Exercises. Available online: http:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/package=SDMTools."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"414","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2007.01281.x","article-title":"Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes","volume":"44","author":"Rutherford","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"Soares-Filho, B.S., Rodrigues, H., Costa, W., Ferreira, B., Machado, R., and Figueira, D. (2013). Dinamica Ego, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"(2015, September 01). Meteoswiss. Available online: www.meteoswiss.ch."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Nippel, T., and Klingl, T. (1998). Swiss Land Use in the European Context. Integration of Swiss Land Use Statistics with Corine Land Cover, Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO)."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1545","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2005.00699.x","article-title":"Weight of evidence: A review of concept and methods","volume":"25","author":"Weed","year":"2005","journal-title":"Risk Anal."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1080\/01490410701295962","article-title":"Multiscale terrain analysis of multibeam bathymetry data for habitat mapping on the continental slope","volume":"30","author":"Wilson","year":"2007","journal-title":"Mar. Geodesy"},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"(2015, September 01). Federal office for agriculture. Available online: http:\/\/www.blw.admin.ch\/index.html?lang=en."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Mas, J.-F., Kolb, M., Houet, T., Paegelow, M., and Olmedo, M.C. (2010, January 8). Una comparaci\u00f3n de diferentes enfoques de modelaci\u00f3n de cambios de cobertura\/uso del suelo. Proceedings of the XIV Simposio Internacional SELPER 2010, Guanajuato, Mexico."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1804","DOI":"10.1080\/13658816.2013.770517","article-title":"Evaluating drivers of land-use change and transition potential models in a complex landscape in Southern Mexico","volume":"27","author":"Kolb","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2013.09.010","article-title":"Inductive pattern-based land use\/cover change models: A comparison of four software packages","volume":"51","author":"Mas","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ. Model. Softw."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jopp, F., Reuter, H., Breckling, B., Lange, C., and Weigmann, G. (2011). How valid are model results? Assumptions, validity range and documentation. Modelling Complex Ecological Dynamics, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-05029-9_23"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1080\/13658810210157822","article-title":"Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps","volume":"17","year":"2003","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3800(89)90001-X","article-title":"Model goodness of fit\u2014A multiple resolution procedure","volume":"47","author":"Costanza","year":"1989","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"Organe consultatif sur les Changements Climatiques (OcCC) (2007). Expected Impacts on Environment, Society And Economy, OcCC."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2011.09.011","article-title":"Comparing two approaches to land use\/cover change modeling and their implications for the assessment of biodiversity loss in a deciduous tropical forest","volume":"29","author":"Mas","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Model. Softw."},{"key":"ref_49","first-page":"435","article-title":"Dynamic modeling of forest conversion: Simulation of past and future scenarios of rural activities expansion in the fringes of the Xingu National Park, Brazilian Amazon","volume":"13","author":"Maeda","year":"2011","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foreco.2012.06.029","article-title":"Avoided deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: Simulating the effect of the Juma Sustainable Development Reserve","volume":"282","author":"Yanai","year":"2012","journal-title":"For. Ecol. Manag."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"779","DOI":"10.1007\/s13280-013-0463-x","article-title":"Evaluating the impact of distance measures on deforestation simulations in the fluvial landscapes of Amazonia","volume":"43","author":"Salonen","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ambio"},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1024458411589","article-title":"Climatic change in mountain regions: A review of possible impacts","volume":"59","author":"Beniston","year":"2003","journal-title":"Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_53","unstructured":"Parry, O.F.C., Palutikof, P.J., and van der Hanson, L.A.C.E. (2007). Freshwater resources and their management. Contribution of working group ii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"477","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cosust.2013.06.001","article-title":"Beyond \u2018land sparing versus land sharing\u2019: Environmental heterogeneity, globalization and the balance between agricultural production and nature conservation","volume":"5","author":"Grau","year":"2013","journal-title":"Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pereira, H.M., and Navarro, L.M. (2015). Towards a european policy for rewilding. Rewilding European Landscapes, Springer International Publishing.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-12039-3"},{"key":"ref_56","first-page":"321","article-title":"Dynamic simulation of land-use change trajectories with the clue-s model","volume":"Volume 90","author":"Koomen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Modelling Land-Use Change"},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-010-9889-3","article-title":"Effects of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heavy snowfall events in the pyrenees","volume":"105","author":"Goyette","year":"2011","journal-title":"Clim. Chang."}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/6\/4\/115\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T18:32:22Z","timestamp":1760207542000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/6\/4\/115"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,11]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi6040115"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi6040115","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2220-9964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,11]]}}}