{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,26]],"date-time":"2025-10-26T14:52:09Z","timestamp":1761490329665,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,3]],"date-time":"2017-07-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1499040000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"the National Statistical Science Research Project","award":["No. 2016LY76"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No. 2016LY76"]}]},{"name":"the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation","award":["No.2015M572061"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No.2015M572061"]}]},{"name":"the General Program of Shandong Natural Science Foundation","award":["No. ZR2015FM014"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No. ZR2015FM014"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Assessing model performance is a continuous challenge for modelers of land use change. Comparing land use models with two neutral models, including the random constraint match model (RCM) and growing cluster model (GrC) that consider the initial land use patterns using a variety of evaluation metrics, provides a new way to evaluate the accuracy of land use models. However, using only two neutral models is not robust enough for reference maps. A modified neutral model that combines a density-based point pattern analysis and a null neutral model algorithm is introduced. In this case, the modified neutral model generates twenty different spatial pattern results using a random algorithm and mid-point displacement algorithm, respectively. The random algorithm-based modified neutral model (Random_MNM) results decrease regularly with the fragmentation degree from 0 to 1, while the mid-point displacement algorithm-based modified neutral model (MPD_MNM) results decrease in a fluctuating manner with the fragmentation degree. Using the modified neutral model results as benchmarks, a new proposed land use model, the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model, for Jilin Province of China from 2003 to 2013 is assessed using the Kappa statistic and Kappain-out statistic for simulation accuracy. The results show that the DLS model output presents higher Kappa and Kappain-out values than all the twenty neutral model results. The map comparison results indicate that the DLS model could simulate land use change more accurately compared to the Random_MNM and MPD_MNM. However, the amount and spatial allocation of land transitions for the DLS model are lower than the actual land use change. Improving the accuracy of the land use transition allocations in the DLS model requires further investigation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi6070199","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,3]],"date-time":"2017-07-03T10:27:31Z","timestamp":1499077651000},"page":"199","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Modified Neutral Models as Benchmarks to Evaluate the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) Model Performance"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Yingchang","family":"Xiu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China"}]},{"given":"Wenbao","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Remote Sensing Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China"}]},{"given":"Wenjing","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Remote Sensing Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Turner, B.L., Skole, D.L., Sanderson, S., Fischer, G., Fresco, L.O., and Leemans, R. (1995). Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Science\/Research Plan, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. IGBP, 1995 (IGBP Report 35)."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Young, B., Noone, K., and Steffen, W. (2005). Science Plan and Implementation Strategy, IGBP Secretariat, Global Land Project (GLP). IGBP Report No. 53\/IHDP Report No. 19."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1007\/s10708-004-4946-y","article-title":"Land use change modelling: Current practice and research priorities","volume":"61","author":"Verburg","year":"2004","journal-title":"GeoJournal"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.442","article-title":"How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process","volume":"27","author":"Ghaffarzadegan","year":"2011","journal-title":"Syst. Dynam. Rev."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"899","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2012.01.007","article-title":"Challenges for land system science","volume":"29","author":"Rounsevell","year":"2012","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"604","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2010.11.009","article-title":"Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries","volume":"28","author":"Reidsma","year":"2011","journal-title":"Land Use Policy."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Walsh, S.J., and Crews-Meyer, K.A. (2002). Spatial Explicit Land Use Change Scenarios for Policy Purposes: Some Applications of the CLUE Framework. Linking People, Place, and Policy, Springer US.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4615-0985-1"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.011","article-title":"A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata","volume":"233","author":"Yang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1167","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-009-9355-7","article-title":"Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: Exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model","volume":"24","author":"Verburg","year":"2009","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"88","article-title":"The SLEUTH land use change model: A review","volume":"1","author":"Chaudhuri","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"314","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8306.9302004","article-title":"Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: A review","volume":"93","author":"Parker","year":"2003","journal-title":"Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2004.02.008","article-title":"Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change","volume":"72","author":"Evans","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_13","first-page":"2123","article-title":"Simulation of land system dynamics: A review","volume":"28","author":"Deng","year":"2009","journal-title":"Chin. J. Eco-Agric."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.4018\/IJAEIS.2016040101","article-title":"A review of methodological integration in land-use change models","volume":"7","author":"Dang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Agric. Environ. Inf. Syst."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Deng, X. (2011). Modeling the Dynamics and Consequences of Land System Change, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-15447-8"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1747","DOI":"10.1360\/02yd0310","article-title":"Farming and forestry land use changes in China and their driving forces from 1900 to 1980","volume":"48","author":"Ge","year":"2005","journal-title":"Sci. China Ser. D (Earth Sci China)"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-010-0495-0","article-title":"Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China","volume":"20","author":"Deng","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"1673","article-title":"Research on ecological effects of urban land policy based on DLS model: A case study on Shenzhen City","volume":"69","author":"Wu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acta Geogr. Sin."},{"key":"ref_19","first-page":"271","article-title":"Quantitive modeling changes in area of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios","volume":"31","author":"Jiang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Trans. Chin. Soc. Agric. Eng."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-8809(01)00187-6","article-title":"Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA","volume":"85","author":"Pontius","year":"2001","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1080\/13658810410001713399","article-title":"Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use","volume":"19","author":"Brown","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(03)00176-5","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of spatial simulation models","volume":"167","author":"Couto","year":"2003","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1177\/001316446002000104","article-title":"A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales","volume":"20","author":"Cohen","year":"1960","journal-title":"Educ. Psychol. Meas."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1016\/S0034-4257(01)00295-4","article-title":"Status of land cover classification accuracy assessment","volume":"80","author":"Foody","year":"2002","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1109\/TGRS.2004.837325","article-title":"Results and implications of a study of fifteen years of satellite image classification experiments","volume":"43","author":"Wilkinson","year":"2005","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2003.09.008","article-title":"Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence","volume":"101","author":"Pontius","year":"2004","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.050","article-title":"Assessing land-use statistics to model land cover change in a mountainous landscape in the European Alps","volume":"212","author":"Rutherford","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2008.02.003","article-title":"An indicator of forest dynamics using a shifting landscape mosaic","volume":"9","author":"Riitters","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1080\/13658810410001713434","article-title":"Comparison of the structure and accuracy of two land change models","volume":"19","author":"Pontius","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1007\/s00168-007-0138-2","article-title":"Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change","volume":"42","author":"Pontius","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann. Reg. Sci."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"452","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cosust.2013.07.012","article-title":"Opportunities to improve impact, integration, and evaluation of land change models","volume":"5","author":"Brown","year":"2013","journal-title":"Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"284","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2008.04.002","article-title":"Neutral models of landscape change as benchmarks in the assessment of model performance","volume":"86","author":"Lajoie","year":"2008","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.2307\/3546007","article-title":"The use and misuse of neutral landscape models in ecology","volume":"79","author":"With","year":"1997","journal-title":"Oikos"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-006-9011-4","article-title":"Neutral models for testing landscape hypotheses","volume":"22","author":"Gardner","year":"2007","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"3241","article-title":"Neutral landscape models in landscape ecology: Application and development","volume":"31","author":"Wu","year":"2012","journal-title":"Chin. J. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02275262","article-title":"Neutral models for the analysis of broad-scale landscape pattern","volume":"1","author":"Gardner","year":"1987","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.008","article-title":"Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)","volume":"303","author":"Wu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1086\/285332","article-title":"The Coexistence of Species in Fractal Landscapes","volume":"139","author":"Palmer","year":"1992","journal-title":"Am. Nat."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02418941","article-title":"Relationships between landcover proportion and indices of landscape spatial pattern","volume":"7","author":"Gustafson","year":"1992","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"661","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1008107902848","article-title":"Landscape patterns simulation with a modified random clusters method","volume":"15","author":"Saura","year":"2000","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.12308","article-title":"Nlmpy: A python software package for the creation of neutral landscape models within a general numerical framework","volume":"6","author":"Etherington","year":"2015","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_42","first-page":"28","article-title":"Simulation analysis of mid-point displacement neutral landscape model to different theme landscape","volume":"40","author":"Xiu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Geo. Spat. Inf."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)","volume":"43","author":"Allouche","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/6\/7\/199\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T18:41:15Z","timestamp":1760208075000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/6\/7\/199"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,3]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,7]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi6070199"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi6070199","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2220-9964"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,3]]}}}