{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,28]],"date-time":"2026-04-28T18:43:17Z","timestamp":1777401797263,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,5]],"date-time":"2019-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1559692800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>South Korea has witnessed a remarkable decline in birth rates in the last few decades. Although there has been a large volume of literature exploring the determinants of low fertility in South Korea, studies on spatial variations in fertility are scarce. This study compares the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to investigate the potential role of the spatially heterogeneous response of the total fertility rate (TFR) to sociodemographic factors. The study finds that the relationships between sociodemographic factors and TFRs in South Korea vary across 252 sub-administrative areas in terms of both magnitude and direction. This study therefore demonstrates the value of using spatial analysis for providing evidence-based local-population policy options in pursuit of a fertility rebound in South Korea.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi8060262","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,6]],"date-time":"2019-06-06T03:38:01Z","timestamp":1559792281000},"page":"262","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Spatial Variations in Fertility of South Korea: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3713-4558","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Myunggu","family":"Jung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}]},{"given":"Woorim","family":"Ko","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea"}]},{"given":"Yeohee","family":"Choi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Social Welfare, Graduate School of Social Welfare, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea"}]},{"given":"Youngtae","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Statistics-Korea (2018). Provisional Result of 2018 Vital Stataststics, Statistics-Korea.","DOI":"10.1787\/int_trade-v2018-1-21-en"},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"2","article-title":"Theoretical explanations of rapid fertility decline in Korea","volume":"3","author":"Kim","year":"2005","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Popul."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1080\/17441730.2013.797293","article-title":"Education fever and the East Asian fertility puzzle: A case study of low fertility in South Korea","volume":"9","author":"Anderson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Asian Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1080\/17441730.2014.943941","article-title":"Female labour force participation and fertility in South Korea","volume":"10","author":"Kim","year":"2014","journal-title":"Asian Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2017.36.18","article-title":"Domestic division of labour and fertility preference in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan","volume":"36","author":"Kan","year":"2017","journal-title":"Demogr. Res."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"KIHASA (2016). A Study of Fertility Changes in Korea: Based on National Fertility and Family Health Survey (1974\u20132012), Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs."},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"1","article-title":"Female education and its impact on fertility","volume":"228","author":"Kim","year":"2016","journal-title":"IZA World Labor"},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Seo, M., Yang, M., and Kang, K. (2016). Micro & Macro Approach on Relationship between Child Care Policy and Fertility, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"Lee, S., Choi, H., and Jung, H.E. (2010). Evaluation on Effectiveness of Policies in Response to Low Fertility, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"75","article-title":"The effects of economic resources on marriage-delaying","volume":"33","author":"Yoo","year":"2010","journal-title":"Korea J. Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.so.20.080194.001223","article-title":"Why fertility changes","volume":"20","author":"Hirschman","year":"1994","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Sociol."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"57","article-title":"Low fertility and policy responses in Korea","volume":"7","author":"Lee","year":"2009","journal-title":"Jpn. J. Popul."},{"key":"ref_13","unstructured":"Jun, B., and Lee, J. (2014). The Tradeoff between Fertility and Education: Evidence from the Korean Development Path, FZID Discussion Paper."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Kwon, T., Kim, T., Kim, D.-S., and Eun, K.-S. (1997). Unerstanding Fertility Transition in Korea, Ilsinsa."},{"key":"ref_15","first-page":"60","article-title":"Social structural Determinants of Regional Variations in Fertility","volume":"131","author":"Lee","year":"2016","journal-title":"Adv. Sci. Technol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1007\/s10680-008-9163-9","article-title":"High Fertility in City Suburbs: Compositional or Contextual Effects?","volume":"25","author":"Kulu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Eur. J. Popul."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1007\/s11111-007-0037-6","article-title":"Population density is a key factor in declining human fertility","volume":"28","author":"Lutz","year":"2006","journal-title":"Popul. Environ."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472031000142516","article-title":"Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view","volume":"41","author":"Cleland","year":"1987","journal-title":"Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"639","DOI":"10.2307\/2137804","article-title":"Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions","volume":"22","author":"Bongaarts","year":"1996","journal-title":"Popul. Dev. Rev."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Casterline, J.B., and Population, National Research Council (US) Committee on Population (2001). Diffusion processes and fertility transition: Introduction. Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives, National Academies Press (US)."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"234","DOI":"10.2307\/143141","article-title":"A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region","volume":"46","author":"Tobler","year":"1970","journal-title":"Econ. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kwon, T.-H. (1981). The Historical Background to Korea\u2019s Demographic Transition, Harvard University Press.","DOI":"10.1163\/9781684172269_003"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1463","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2014.30.53","article-title":"Educational differentials in cohort fertility during the fertility transition in South Korea","volume":"30","author":"Yoo","year":"2014","journal-title":"Demogr. Res."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"387","DOI":"10.1007\/s11113-012-9232-y","article-title":"Cohort effects or period effects? Fertility decline in South Korea in the twentieth century","volume":"31","author":"Kye","year":"2012","journal-title":"Popul. Res. Policy Rev."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1007\/s10680-005-3581-8","article-title":"Migration and fertility: Competing hypotheses re-examined","volume":"21","author":"Kulu","year":"2005","journal-title":"Eur. J. Popul.\/Rev. europ\u00e9enne de D\u00e9mographie"},{"key":"ref_26","first-page":"123","article-title":"Family formation and urbanization","volume":"44","author":"Courgeau","year":"1989","journal-title":"Popul. Engl. Sel."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"281","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.1996.tb00936.x","article-title":"Geographically weighted regression: A method for exploring spatial nonstationarity","volume":"28","author":"Brunsdon","year":"1996","journal-title":"Geogr. Anal."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Myrdal, A. (1968). Nation and Family; the Swedish Experiment in Democratic Family and Population Policy, MIT Press."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1023\/B:POPU.0000020877.96401.b3","article-title":"The changing institutional context of low fertility","volume":"22","author":"Rindfuss","year":"2003","journal-title":"Popul. Res. Policy Rev."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"393","article-title":"Fertility, Employment, and Child-Care Costs\u2014A Dynamic Analysis","volume":"52","author":"Blau","year":"1986","journal-title":"Popul. Index"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"523","DOI":"10.2307\/2061850","article-title":"The Perceived Impact of Child-Care Costs on Womens Labor Supply and Fertility","volume":"29","author":"Mason","year":"1992","journal-title":"Demography"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"725","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2010.00355.x","article-title":"Child-Care Availability and Fertility in Norway","volume":"36","author":"Rindfuss","year":"2010","journal-title":"Popul. Dev. Rev."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jjie.2016.11.003","article-title":"Childcare availability and fertility: Evidence from municipalities in Japan","volume":"43","author":"Fukai","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Jpn. Int. Econ."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1080\/0032472032000137835","article-title":"Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences","volume":"57","author":"Bongaarts","year":"2003","journal-title":"Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.2307\/1972729","article-title":"Mass Education as a Determinant of the Timing of Fertility Decline","volume":"6","author":"Caldwell","year":"1980","journal-title":"Popul. Dev. Rev."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1080\/17441730903351503","article-title":"The contribution of education to South Korea\u2019s fertility decline to \u2018lowest-low\u2019 level","volume":"5","author":"Choe","year":"2009","journal-title":"Asian Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Statistics-Korea (2017). Analysis of Birth, Death, Marriage and Divorce by Educational Level: 2000\u20132015, Statistics Korea."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.4054\/DemRes.2018.38.13","article-title":"Educational differences in period fertility: The case of South Korea, 1996\u20132010","volume":"38","author":"Lee","year":"2018","journal-title":"Demogr. Res."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"Malthus, T.R. (1878). An Essay on the Principle of Population: Or, a View of its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness, with an Inquiry into Our Prospects Respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils Which It Occasions, Reeves and Turner."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Murray, J. (2011). The Law of Population: A Treatise, in Six Books; in Disproof of the Superfecundity of Human Beings, and Developing of the Real Principle of Their Increase, Nabu Press."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Morita, T., and Yamamoto, K. (2014). Economic Geography, Endogenous Fertility, and Agglomeration, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fujita, M., and Thisse, J.-F. (2013). Economics of Agglomeration: Cities, Industrial Location, and Globalization, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139051552"},{"key":"ref_43","unstructured":"Becker, G.S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, Columbia University Press."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Richardson, H.W. (1995). Economies and diseconomies of agglomeration. Urban Agglomeration and Economic Growth, Springer Science & Business Media.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-79397-4_6"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"372","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jue.2006.08.002","article-title":"Economic geography, fertility and migration","volume":"61","author":"Sato","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Urban Econ."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1111\/imig.12350","article-title":"Marriage Migration Policy in South Korea: Social Investment beyond the Nation State","volume":"56","author":"Kim","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int. Migr."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.3138\/jcfs.47.2.267","article-title":"Adapting to Marriage Markets: International Marriage Migration from Vietnam to South Korea","volume":"47","author":"Lee","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Comp. Fam. Stud."},{"key":"ref_48","unstructured":"Kim, H.-S., Kim, K., and Jun, K.-H. (2012). Mate Selection Pattern and Fertility Differentials among Married Immigrants in Korea. Cross-Border Marriage: Global Trends and Diversity, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1080\/17441730.2018.1426188","article-title":"Fertility differentials between Korean and international marriage couples in South Korea","volume":"14","author":"Kim","year":"2018","journal-title":"Asian Popul. Stud."},{"key":"ref_50","first-page":"1","article-title":"Fertility and the Proportion of Newlyweds in Different Municipalities","volume":"32","author":"Lee","year":"2018","journal-title":"KIHASA Res. Brief"},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"609","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2007.0906-7590.05171.x","article-title":"Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: A review","volume":"30","author":"Dormann","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1659","DOI":"10.2307\/1939924","article-title":"Spatial autocorrelation: Trouble or new paradigm?","volume":"74","author":"Legendre","year":"1993","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_53","first-page":"187","article-title":"The saddlepoint approximation of Moran\u2019s I\u2019s and local Moran\u2019s I\u2019s reference distributions and their numerical evaluation","volume":"34","author":"Tiefelsdorf","year":"2002","journal-title":"Geogr. Anal."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Harris, R. (2016). Quantitative Geography, Sage Publication Ltd.","DOI":"10.4135\/9781473920446"},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x","article-title":"Local indicators of spatial association\u2014LISA","volume":"27","author":"Anselin","year":"1995","journal-title":"Geogr. Anal."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2018.10.083","article-title":"Examining the spatial variations of determinants of energy-related CO2 emissions in China at the city level using Geographically Weighted Regression Model","volume":"235","author":"Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1007\/s10109-016-0239-5","article-title":"Geographically weighted regression and multicollinearity: Dispelling the myth","volume":"18","author":"Fotheringham","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Syst."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1191\/030913297676693207","article-title":"Trends in quantitative methods I: Stressing the local","volume":"21","author":"Fotheringham","year":"1997","journal-title":"Prog. Hum. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_59","unstructured":"Neter, J., Kutner, M.H., Nachtsheim, C.J., and Wasserman, W. (1996). Applied Linear Statistical Models, McGraw-Hill & Irwin."},{"key":"ref_60","unstructured":"Chasco Yrigoyen, C., Garc\u00eda, I., and Vic\u00e9ns, J. (2007). Modeling Spatial Variations in Household Disposable Income with Geographically Weighted Regression, University Library of Munich."},{"key":"ref_61","first-page":"1","article-title":"Fertility among immigrant women: New data a new approach","volume":"400","author":"Toulemon","year":"2004","journal-title":"Popul. Soc."}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/8\/6\/262\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T12:56:26Z","timestamp":1760187386000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/8\/6\/262"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,5]]},"references-count":61,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi8060262"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi8060262","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2220-9964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,5]]}}}