{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,29]],"date-time":"2026-06-29T19:57:55Z","timestamp":1782763075589,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":99,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,24]],"date-time":"2020-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1582502400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"the National Key Research and Development Program of China","award":["2016YFC1402003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2016YFC1402003"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["41890854;41901354"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["41890854;41901354"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Land use and land cover change (LULCC) has directly played an important role in the observed climate change. In this paper, we considered Dujiangyan City and its environs (DCEN) to study the future scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 based on the 2018 simulation results from 2007 and 2018 LULC maps. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of future LULCC, including the future potential landscape risk (FPLR) area of the 2008 great (8.0 Mw) earthquake of south-west China. The Cellular automata\u2013Markov chain (CA-Markov) model and multicriteria based analytical hierarchy process (MC-AHP) approach have been considered using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The analysis shows future LULC scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 along with the FPLR pattern. Based on the results of the future LULCC and FPLR scenarios, we have provided suggestions for the development in the close proximity of the fault lines for the future strong magnitude earthquakes. Our results suggest a better and safe planning approach in the Belt and Road Corridor (BRC) of China to control future Silk-Road Disaster, which will also be useful to urban planners for urban development in a safe and sustainable manner.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi9020134","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,25]],"date-time":"2020-02-25T04:21:26Z","timestamp":1582604486000},"page":"134","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":131,"title":["Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling and Future Potential Landscape Risk Assessment Using Markov-CA Model and Analytical Hierarchy Process"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7598-0969","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Biswajit","family":"Nath","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6776-2910","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhihua","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resource and Environmental Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Yuquan Road 19, Shijingshan, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yong","family":"Ge","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resource and Environmental Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Yuquan Road 19, Shijingshan, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3443-9030","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kamrul","family":"Islam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Systems Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6649-7767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ramesh","family":"P. Singh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, One University Drive, Orange, CA 92866, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5959-9351","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zheng","family":"Niu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Resource and Environmental Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Yuquan Road 19, Shijingshan, Beijing 100049, China"},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), P.O. Box-9718, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Cutler, J. (2010). Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. 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