{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T21:35:16Z","timestamp":1772314516397,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,27]],"date-time":"2020-06-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1593216000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["N\/A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["N\/A"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJGI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Asian Emerald Ash Borer beetle (EAB, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) can cause damage to all species of Ash trees (Fraxinus), and rampant, unchecked infestations of this insect can cause significant damage to forests. It is thus critical to assess and model the spread of the EAB in a manner that allows authorities to anticipate likely areas of future tree infestation. In this study, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), combining the features of the commonly used generalized linear model (GLM) and a random effects model, was developed to predict future EAB spread patterns in Southern Ontario, Canada. The GLMM was designed to deal with autocorrelation in the data. Two random effects were established based on the geographic information provided with the EAB data, and a method based on statistical inference was proposed to identify the most significant factors associated with the distribution of the EAB. The results of the model showed that 95% of the testing data were correctly classified. The predictive performance of the GLMM was substantially enhanced in comparison with that obtained by the GLM. The influence of climatic factors, such as wind speed and anthropogenic activities, had the most significant influence on the spread of the EAB.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijgi9070414","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,29]],"date-time":"2020-06-29T03:40:07Z","timestamp":1593402007000},"page":"414","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A Generalized Linear Mixed Model Approach to Assess Emerald Ash Borer Diffusion"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5240-9041","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuan","family":"Zhong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Baoxin","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"G. Brent","family":"Hall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Esri Canada, 900-12 Concorde Pl, Toronto 4700, ON M3C 3R8, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Farah","family":"Hoque","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8057-5100","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xin","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"de Groot, P., Biggs, W.D., Lyons, D.B., Scarr, T., Czerwinski, E., Evans, H.J., Ingram, W., and Marchant, K. (2006). A Visual Guide to Detecting Emerald Ash Borer Damage."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Parsons, G.L. (2008). Emerald Ash Borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae): A Guide to Identification and Comparison to Similar Species, Department of Entomology, Michigan State University."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Marchant, K.R. (2020, June 26). City of Missisauga Emerald Ash Borer Management Plan. Available online: http:\/\/www7.mississauga.ca\/documents\/parks\/forestry\/2014\/Management_Plan_Final_22Jan12.pdf."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2006.03.003","article-title":"Modeling the spread of the emerald ash borer","volume":"197","author":"BenDor","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Hallett, R., Pontius, J., Martin, M., and Plourde, L. (2007, January 23\u201324). The practical utility of hyperspectral remote sensing for early detection of emerald ash borer. Proceedings of the Emerald Ash Borer Research and Development Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, USA."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McCullagh, P. (1989). Generalized Linear Models, Routledge.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3242-6"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(02)00204-1","article-title":"Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: Setting the scene","volume":"157","author":"Guisan","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"154","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.007","article-title":"Spatial residual analysis of six modeling techniques","volume":"186","author":"Zhang","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101037","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoinf.2019.101037","article-title":"Use of geospatial methods to characterize dispersion of the Emerald Ash Borer in Southern Ontario, Canada","volume":"55","author":"Hoque","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Inform."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1080\/00949659308811554","article-title":"Generalized linear mixed models a pseudo-likelihood approach","volume":"48","author":"Wolfinger","year":"1993","journal-title":"J. Stat. Comput. Simul."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pinheiro, J.C., and Bates, D.M. (2000). Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-Plus, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4419-0318-1"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McCulloch, C., and Neuhaus, J. (2005). Generalized linear mixed models. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, John Wiley and Sons Ltd.","DOI":"10.1002\/0470011815.b2a10021"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"144","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2008.01270.x","article-title":"Hierarchical models facilitate spatial analysis of large data sets: A case study on invasive plant species in the northeastern United States","volume":"12","author":"Latimer","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zuur, A.F., Ieno, E.N., Walker, N.J., Saveliev, A.A., and Smith, G.M. (2009). Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-87458-6"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2008.10.008","article-title":"Generalized linear mixed models: A practical guide for ecology and evolution","volume":"24","author":"Bolker","year":"2009","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"498","DOI":"10.1007\/s13253-017-0304-7","article-title":"Generalized Linear Latent Variable Models for Multivariate Count and Biomass Data in Ecology","volume":"22","author":"Niku","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Agric. Biol. Environ. Stat."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"701","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2007.01060.x","article-title":"Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion","volume":"10","author":"Broennimann","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"884","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12194","article-title":"Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk","volume":"20","author":"Kelly","year":"2014","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gallardo, B., Zieritz, A., and Aldridge, D.C. (2015). The importance of the human footprint in shaping the global distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine invaders. PLoS ONE, 10.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0125801"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"353369","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-009-9434-9","article-title":"Modeling the invasive emerald ash borer risk of spread using a spatially explicit cellular model","volume":"25","author":"Prasad","year":"2010","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2131","DOI":"10.1890\/09-1340.1","article-title":"Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data","volume":"20","author":"Fink","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time","volume":"40","author":"Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Appleton, E., Kimoto, T., Holmes, J., and Turgeon, J.J. (2017). Surveillance Guidelines for Emerald Ash Borer."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"(2005). Ontario Wind Resource Information, 2005, Electronic Resource: Vector."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Settur, B., Rajan, K.S., and Ramachandra, T.V. (2013). Land surface temperature responses to land use land cover dynamics. Geoinform. Geostat. Overv."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Hulley, G., and Hook, S. (2017). MOD21A2 MODIS\/Terra Land Surface Temperature\/3-Band Emissivity 8-Day L3 Global 1km SIN Grid V006 [Data set]. NASA EOSDIS Land Process. DAAC."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (2013). Provincial Digital Elevation Model Technical Specifications v3.0."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1331","DOI":"10.1139\/X09-057","article-title":"Attraction of the emerald ash borer to ash trees stressed by girdling, herbicide treatment, or wounding","volume":"39","author":"McCullough","year":"2009","journal-title":"Can. J. For. Res."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foreco.2012.08.049","article-title":"White ash (Fraxinus americana) decline and mortality: The role of site nutrition and stress history","volume":"286","author":"Royo","year":"2012","journal-title":"For. Ecol. Manag."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"609","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2007.0906-7590.05171.x","article-title":"Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: A review","volume":"30","author":"Dormann","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Tasneem, F. (2019). Use of Geospatial Methods to Characterize Dispersion of the Emerald Ash Borer in Southern Ontario, Canada. [Master\u2019s Thesis, Graduate Program in Earth and Space Science, York University]."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"766","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2015.09.007","article-title":"So Many Variables: Joint Modeling in Community Ecology","volume":"30","author":"Warton","year":"2015","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."}],"container-title":["ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/9\/7\/414\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T09:43:46Z","timestamp":1760175826000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2220-9964\/9\/7\/414"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,27]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7]]}},"alternative-id":["ijgi9070414"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijgi9070414","relation":{},"ISSN":["2220-9964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2220-9964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,27]]}}}