{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T02:04:09Z","timestamp":1760148249795,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,14]],"date-time":"2023-04-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1681430400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100006769","name":"Russian Science Foundation (RSF)","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["22-11-20024"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22-11-20024"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100006769","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Information"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The existing approaches to supporting the tasks of managing the urban areas development are aimed at choosing an alternative from a set of ready-made solutions. Little attention is paid to the procedure for the formation and analysis of acceptable options for the use of territories. The study's purpose is to understand how various factors affect the efficiency of using the city\u2019s territory. In addition, we are trying to use this understanding to assess the possible consequences of the implementation of management decisions on the territory transformation. We use the method of structuring knowledge about the study area, taking into account the influence of the external environment. This method implements the significant factors list formation and assessment of their impact on development. Fuzzy cognitive modeling was used to build scenarios for identifying contradictions in achieving sustainable development goals. The scenario modeling results are necessary for the formation of the alternative. Alternatives are evaluated on the basis of fuzzy multi-criteria optimization. The integration of methods makes it possible to increase the objectivity of the analysis of strategies for urban areas development. The Belman-Zadeh method is used to analyze the selected options based on criteria that determine the feasibility and effectiveness of each project.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/info14040241","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,14]],"date-time":"2023-04-14T04:54:24Z","timestamp":1681448064000},"page":"241","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Application of Scenario Forecasting Methods and Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Modeling in Substantiation of Urban Area Development Strategies"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7214-9432","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Natalia","family":"Sadovnikova","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Digital Technologies for Urban Studies, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Volgograd State Technical University, 1 Akademicheskaya Str., 400074 Volgograd, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2276-5146","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Oksana","family":"Savina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Digital Technologies for Urban Studies, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Volgograd State Technical University, 1 Akademicheskaya Str., 400074 Volgograd, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8834-5748","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Danila","family":"Parygin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Digital Technologies for Urban Studies, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Volgograd State Technical University, 1 Akademicheskaya Str., 400074 Volgograd, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0810-8177","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexey","family":"Churakov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Building Structures, Foundations and Reliability of Constructions, Volgograd State Technical University, 1 Akademicheskaya Str., 400074 Volgograd, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0044-670X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexey","family":"Shuklin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Digital Technologies for Urban Studies, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Volgograd State Technical University, 1 Akademicheskaya Str., 400074 Volgograd, Russia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zelenskiy, I., Parygin, D., Savina, O., Finogeev, A., and Gurtyakov, A. (2022). Effective Implementation of Integrated Area Development Based on Consumer Attractiveness Assessment. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su142316239"},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Mason, R. (2005). Economics and Historic Preservation: A Guide and Review of the Literature, The Brookings Institution."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Rypkema, D.R., and Cheong, C. (2011). Measuring Economic Impacts of Historic Preservation, Advisory Council on Historic Preservation."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Polidi, T.D. (2017). Economics of Urban Redevelopment: Foreign Experience, Foundation \u201cInstitute of Urban Economics\u201d. (In Russian)."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Del Giudice, V., De Paola, P., Bevilacqua, P., Pino, A., and Del Giudice, F.P. (2020). Abandoned Industrial Areas with Critical Environmental Pollution: Evaluation Model and Stigma Effect. Sustainability, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/su12135267"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Della Spina, L. (2021). Cultural Heritage: A Hybrid Framework for Ranking Adaptive Reuse Strategies. Buildings, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/buildings11030132"},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"(2022, December 27). How to Value Real Estate Investment Property. Available online: https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/mortgages-real-estate\/11\/valuing-real-estate.asp."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Stas, N. (2007). The Economics of Adaptive Reuse of Old Buildings: A Financial Feasibility Study & Analysis, UWSpace."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106278","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2022.106278","article-title":"An analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in Italian cities: Performance measurements and policy implications","volume":"120","author":"Gastaldi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105110","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2020.105110","article-title":"Agent-Based Modeling for Urban Development Planning based on Human Needs. Conceptual Basis and Model Formulation","volume":"101","author":"Olaya","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"581","DOI":"10.1016\/j.healthpol.2019.03.001","article-title":"Achieving the SDGs: Evaluating indicators to be used to benchmark and monitor progress towards creating healthy and sustainable cities","volume":"124","author":"Lowe","year":"2020","journal-title":"Health Policy"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119574","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2019.119574","article-title":"Insights on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals scope: Are they aligned with a \u2018strong\u2019 sustainable development?","volume":"252","author":"Giannetti","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_13","unstructured":"Huang, B. (2018). Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems, Elsevier."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"918546","DOI":"10.3389\/frsus.2022.918546","article-title":"Restructuring urban planning to facilitate sustainable consumption","volume":"3","author":"Samson","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"440","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2017.12.038","article-title":"Fostering sustainable urban renewal at the neighborhood scale with a spatial decision support system","volume":"38","author":"Laprise","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.3390\/smartcities6010022","article-title":"The Evaluation in the Urban Projects Planning: A Logical-Deductive Model for the Definition of \u201cWarning Areas\u201d in the Esquilino District in the City of Rome (Italy)","volume":"6","author":"Morano","year":"2023","journal-title":"Smart Cities"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Xu, K., Shen, G.Q., Liu, G., and Martek, I. (2019). Demolition of Existing Buildings in Urban Renewal Projects: A Decision Support System in the China Context. Sustainability, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/su11020491"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kara, C., and Iranmanesh, A. (2023). Modelling and Assessing Sustainable Urban Regeneration for Historic Urban Quarters via Analytical Hierarchy Process. Land, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/land12010072"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105570","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105570","article-title":"Evaluating the sustainability of urban renewal projects based on a model of hybrid multiple-attribute decision-making","volume":"108","author":"Lin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, Z., Chen, X., Huang, N., Yang, Y., Wang, L., and Wang, Y. (2022). Spatial Identification and Redevelopment Evaluation of Brownfields in the Perspective of Urban Complex Ecosystems: A Case of Wuhu City, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 19.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19010478"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pazzini, M., Corticelli, R., Lantieri, C., and Mazzoli, C. (2023). Multi-Criteria Analysis and Decision-Making Approach for the Urban Regeneration: The Application to the Rimini Canal Port (Italy). Sustainability, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/su15010772"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2014.06.011","article-title":"Analysis of the Potentials of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Methods to Conduct Sustainability Assessment","volume":"46","author":"Cinelli","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Parygin, D., Sadovnikova, N., Gamidullaeva, L., Finogeev, A., and Rashevskiy, N. (2022). Tools and Technologies for Sustainable Territorial Development in the Context of a Quadruple Innovation Helix. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su14159086"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105479","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105479","article-title":"Collaborative decision-making for urban regeneration: A literature review and bibliometric analysis","volume":"107","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103028","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2021.103028","article-title":"Decision making in urban development: The application of a hybrid evaluation method for a critical area in the city of Turin (Italy)","volume":"72","author":"Bottero","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Szulkin, M., Munshi-South, J., and Charmantier, A. (2020). Urban Evolutionary Biology, Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198836841.001.0001"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wilson, J.P. (2021). The Geographic Information Science & Technology Body of Knowledge, UCGIS. [1st ed.].","DOI":"10.22224\/gistbok\/2021.1.1"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2302","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-15788-7","article-title":"Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways","volume":"11","author":"Gao","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Weith, T., Barkmann, T., Gaasch, N., Rogga, S., Strau\u00df, C., and Zscheischler, J. (2021). Sustainable Land Management in a European Context, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-50841-8"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"92","DOI":"10.1016\/j.procs.2015.09.159","article-title":"Analyzing Stakeholders Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping","volume":"61","author":"Hester","year":"2015","journal-title":"Procedia Comput. Sci."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1134\/S0005117920010129","article-title":"On Situation Control Problem Settings with Multiple Stakeholders Using Cognitive Maps","volume":"81","author":"Avdeeva","year":"2020","journal-title":"Autom. Remote Control"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Barbrook-Johnson, P., and Penn, A.S. (2022). Systems Mapping, Palgrave Macmillan.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-031-01919-7"},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Sadovnikova, N., Parygin, D., Gnedkova, E., Kravets, A., Kizim, A., and Ukustov, S. (2013, January 24\u201326). Scenario forecasting of sustainable urban development based on cognitive model. Proceedings of the IADIS International Conference, Section I, Prague, Czech Republic."},{"key":"ref_34","unstructured":"Sadovnikova, N., Parygin, D., Gnedkova, E., Sanzhapov, B., and Gidkova, N. (2013). The Sustainable City VIII, Proceedings of the Eight International Conference on Urban Regeneration and Sustainability, Section 3, Putrajaya, Malaysia, 3\u20135 December 2013, WIT Press."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gray, S.A., Gray, S., Cox, L.J., and Henly-Shepard, S. (2013, January 7\u201310). Mental Modeler: A Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping Modeling Tool for Adaptive Environmental Management. Proceedings of the 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Wailea, HI, USA.","DOI":"10.1109\/HICSS.2013.399"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Papageorgiou, E. (2014). Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Applied Sciences and Engineering, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-39739-4"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.5751\/ES-03802-160146","article-title":"Mental Models: An Interdisciplinary Synthesis of Theory and Methods","volume":"16","author":"Jones","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Papageorgiou, E.I., Papageorgiou, K., Dikopoulou, Z., and Mouhrir, A. (2018, January 24\u201328). A web-based tool for Fuzzy Cognitive Map Modeling. Proceedings of the 9th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Fort Collins, CO, USA."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46136","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2019.2908622","article-title":"Identifying the Components and Interrelationships of Smart Cities in Indonesia: Supporting Policymaking via Fuzzy Cognitive Systems","volume":"7","author":"Firmansyah","year":"2019","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2014.10.004","article-title":"The use of participatory modeling to promote social learning and facilitate community disaster planning","volume":"45","author":"Gray","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Policy"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.17.4.B141","article-title":"Decision making in a fuzzy environment","volume":"17","author":"Bellman","year":"1970","journal-title":"Manag. Sci."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahraman, C., Tolga, A.C., Cevik Onar, S., Cebi, S., Oztaysi, B., and Sari, I.U. (2022). Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-031-09176-6"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lirkov, I., and Margenov, S. (2022). Large-Scale Scientific Computing, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-97549-4"},{"key":"ref_44","unstructured":"Kulba, V.V., Kononov, D.A., Kosyachenko, S.A., and Shubin, A.N. (2004). Methods for the Formation of Scenarios for the Development of Socio-Economic Systems, SINTEG. (In Russian)."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"338","DOI":"10.1016\/S0019-9958(65)90241-X","article-title":"Fuzzy sets","volume":"8","author":"Zadeh","year":"1965","journal-title":"Inf. Control"},{"key":"ref_46","first-page":"499","article-title":"Fuzzy Multicriteria Analysis of Variants with the Use of Paired Comparisons","volume":"40","author":"Rotshtein","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Comput. Syst. Sci. Int."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rashevskiy, N., Sadovnikova, N., Ereshchenko, T., Parygin, D., and Ignatyev, A. (2023). Atmospheric Ecology Modeling for the Sustainable Development of the Urban Environment. Energies, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/en16041766"},{"key":"ref_48","unstructured":"(2023, January 15). Mental Modeler. Available online: https:\/\/www.mentalmodeler.com\/."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Poczeta, K., Papageorgiou, E.I., and Gerogiannis, V.C. (2020). Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Optimization for Decision Making and Prediction. Mathematics, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/math8112059"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhang, J., Hou, Y., Dong, Y., Wang, C., and Chen, W. (2022). Land Use Change Simulation in Rapid Urbanizing Regions: A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Areas. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 19.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19148785"},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, W.-M., and Peng, H.-H. (2020). A Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Evaluation Framework for Urban Sustainable Development. Mathematics, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/math8030330"},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1305","DOI":"10.1016\/j.promfg.2020.10.182","article-title":"Multi-Criteria Decision Making using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps\u2014Preliminary Results","volume":"51","author":"Ketipi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Procedia Manuf."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Petukhova, A.V., Kovalenko, A.V., and Ovsyannikova, A.V. (2022). Algorithm for Optimization of Inverse Problem Modeling in Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. Mathematics, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/math10193452"}],"container-title":["Information"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2078-2489\/14\/4\/241\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T19:15:48Z","timestamp":1760123748000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2078-2489\/14\/4\/241"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,14]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,4]]}},"alternative-id":["info14040241"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/info14040241","relation":{},"ISSN":["2078-2489"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2078-2489"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,14]]}}}