{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]],"date-time":"2026-06-15T14:25:22Z","timestamp":1781533522717,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,9]],"date-time":"2026-06-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780963200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["72272046"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72272046"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["71802065"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["71802065"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["72272046"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72272046"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01h0zpd94","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["71802065"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["71802065"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01h0zpd94","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Province Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["26QNYC015ZD"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["26QNYC015ZD"]}]},{"name":"Key Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning in Hangzhou","award":["25JD013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["25JD013"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JTAER"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study addresses supply uncertainty in the transportation and production of agricultural products within e-commerce-driven supply chains by developing a stochastic supply chain framework. By embedding an endogenous trust-based punishment mechanism, we characterize the strategic interplay between relational governance and operational decisions. In the single-period setting, higher retailer trust leads to larger order quantities while reducing the supplier\u2019s optimal supply effort. This occurs because increased trust lowers the minimum delivery commitment ratio, allowing the retailer to voluntarily share more supply risk in exchange for lower-cost products. This creates a mutually beneficial risk-sharing arrangement between the retailer and supplier. When extending the framework to a dual-channel setting with a reliable backup option, the retailer consistently leverages trust and risk-sharing to lower sourcing costs. Concurrently, fluctuations in trust prompt the retailer to strategically shift order allocations between channels based on the primary supplier\u2019s maximum effort capacity. Multi-period analysis shows a positive relationship between trust and the supplier\u2019s expected profit, with optimal maximum supply effort stabilizing under repeated cooperation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that dual-channel decentralized decision-making achieves bullwhip effect mitigation quantitatively comparable to the centralized benchmark, while also alleviating moral hazard issues and benefiting retailers. These results indicate that the proposed mechanism effectively curbs opportunistic behavior and promotes sustainable, mutually advantageous supply chain collaboration.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jtaer21060182","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,9]],"date-time":"2026-06-09T09:46:54Z","timestamp":1780998414000},"page":"182","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Mitigating Supply Uncertainty in Agricultural Supply Chains: A Trust-Based Punishment Mechanism to Reduce the Bullwhip Effect"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4343-4621","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiao","family":"Fu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhejiang Informatization Development Institute, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-4745-4659","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hao","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1072","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2019.03.041","article-title":"Contract design in agriculture supply chains with random yield","volume":"277","author":"Anderson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Eur. 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