{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,3]],"date-time":"2026-02-03T19:09:32Z","timestamp":1770145772381,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,1]],"date-time":"2018-10-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1538352000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Utilizing reanalysis and high sensitivity W-band radar observations from CloudSat, this study assesses simulated high-latitude (55\u201382.5\u00b0) precipitation and its future changes under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario. A subset of models was selected based on the smallest discrepancy relative to CloudSat and ERA-I reanalysis using a combined ranking for bias and spatial root mean square error (RMSE). After accounting for uncertainties introduced by internal variability due to CloudSat\u2019s limited four year day-night observation period, RMSE provides greater discrimination between the models than a typical mean state bias criterion. Over 1976\u20132005 to 2071\u20132100, colder months experience larger fractional modelled precipitation increases than warmer months, and the observation-constrained models generally report a larger response than the full ensemble. For everywhere except the Southern Hemisphere (SH55, for 55\u201382.5\u00b0S) ocean, the selected models show greater warming than the model ensemble while their hydrological sensitivity (fractional precipitation change with temperature) is indistinguishable from the full ensemble relationship. This indicates that local thermodynamic effects explain much of the net high-latitude precipitation change. For the SH ocean, the models that perform best in the present climate show near-median warming but greater precipitation increase, implying a detectable contribution from processes other than local thermodynamic changes. A Taylor diagram analysis of the full CMIP5 ensemble finds that the Northern Hemisphere (NH55) and SH55 land areas follow a \u201cwet get wetter\u201d paradigm. The SH55 land areas show stable spatial correlations between the simulated present and future climate, indicative of small changes in the spatial pattern, but this is not true of NH55 land. This shows changes in the spatial pattern of precipitation changes through time as well as the differences in precipitation between wet and dry regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs10101583","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,2]],"date-time":"2018-10-02T08:23:50Z","timestamp":1538468630000},"page":"1583","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Observed High-Latitude Precipitation Amount and Pattern and CMIP5 Model Projections"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Ali","family":"Behrangi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, 1133 E. James E Rogers Way, Harshbarger, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Richardson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, MS 233-300, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA"},{"name":"Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"655","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-005-0018-3","article-title":"Polar amplification of surface warming on an aquaplanet in \u201cghost forcing\u201d experiments without sea ice feedbacks","volume":"24","author":"Alexeev","year":"2005","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2071","article-title":"Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models","volume":"7","author":"Pithan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Min, S.K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., and Agnew, T. (2008). Human influence on arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35.","DOI":"10.1029\/2008GL035725"},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Stocker, T.F. (2013). Observations: Cryosphere. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2171","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1077445","article-title":"Increasing river discharge to the arctic ocean","volume":"298","author":"Peterson","year":"2002","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Boening, C., Lebsock, M., Landerer, F., and Stephens, G. (2012). Snowfall-driven mass change on the east antarctic ice sheet. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39.","DOI":"10.1029\/2012GL053316"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1019","DOI":"10.3189\/2015JoG15J071","article-title":"Mass gains of the antarctic ice sheet exceed losses","volume":"61","author":"Zwally","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Glaciol."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stephens, G.L., L\u2019Ecuyer, T., Forbes, R., Gettelmen, A., Golaz, J.-C., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Suzuki, K., Gabriel, P., and Haynes, J. (2010). Dreary state of precipitation in global models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 115.","DOI":"10.1029\/2010JD014532"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-11-052.1","article-title":"Estimating climatological bias errors for the global precipitation climatology project (gpcp)","volume":"51","author":"Adler","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1175\/JAM2331.1","article-title":"Rainfall climate regimes: The relationship of regional trmm rainfall biases to the environment","volume":"45","author":"Berg","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lebsock, M.D., and L\u2019Ecuyer, T.S. (2011). The retrieval of warm rain from cloudsat. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 116.","DOI":"10.1029\/2011JD016076"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4468","DOI":"10.1002\/2015JD024546","article-title":"Status of high-latitude precipitation estimates from observations and reanalyses","volume":"121","author":"Behrangi","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Adler, R., Sapiano, M., Huffman, G., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D., Chiu, L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., and Nelkin, E. (2018). The global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly analysis (new version 2.3) and a review of 2017 global precipitation. Atmosphere, 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos9040138"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Huffman, G.J., Adler, R.F., Bolvin, D.T., and Gu, G. (2009). Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP version 2.1. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36.","DOI":"10.1029\/2009GL040000"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1007\/s00704-013-0860-x","article-title":"GPCC\u2019s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle","volume":"115","author":"Schneider","year":"2013","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1631","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-83-11-1631","article-title":"NCEP-DOE AMIP-ii reanalysis (r-2)","volume":"83","author":"Kanamitsu","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.828","article-title":"The era-interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system","volume":"137","author":"Dee","year":"2011","journal-title":"Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3624","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-11-00015.1","article-title":"Merra: NASA\u2019s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications","volume":"24","author":"Rienecker","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5721","DOI":"10.1175\/2011JCLI4175.1","article-title":"Global energy and water budgets in merra","volume":"24","author":"Bosilovich","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4168","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00259.1","article-title":"Evaluation of temperature and precipitation trends and long-term persistence in CMIP5 twentieth-century climate simulations","volume":"26","author":"Kumar","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1091","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-015-2634-x","article-title":"Long-term changes\/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979\u20132012)","volume":"46","author":"Gu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2161","DOI":"10.1002\/2015JD023406","article-title":"Disruptions in precipitation cycles: Attribution to anthropogenic forcing","volume":"121","author":"Tapiador","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15770","article-title":"An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification","volume":"528","author":"DeAngelis","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-016-3071-1","article-title":"Evaluation of current and projected antarctic precipitation in cmip5 models","volume":"48","author":"Palerme","year":"2017","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3317","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0480.1","article-title":"Reproducibility of summer precipitation over northern Eurasia in CMIP5 multiclimate models","volume":"29","author":"Hirota","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Behrangi, A., Lebsock, M., Wong, S., and Lambrigtsen, B. (2012). On the quantification of oceanic rainfall using spaceborne sensors. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 117.","DOI":"10.1029\/2012JD017979"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4893","DOI":"10.1002\/2013WR014566","article-title":"What does cloudsat reveal about global land precipitation detection by other spaceborne sensors?","volume":"50","author":"Behrangi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3957","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00679.1","article-title":"An update on the oceanic precipitation rate and its zonal distribution in light of advanced observations from space","volume":"27","author":"Behrangi","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"1279","article-title":"How much snow falls on the antarctic ice sheet?","volume":"8","author":"Palerme","year":"2014","journal-title":"Cryosphere Discuss."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Haynes, J.M., L\u2019Ecuyer, T.S., Stephens, G.L., Miller, S.D., Mitrescu, C., Wood, N.B., and Tanelli, S. (2009). Rainfall retrieval over the ocean with spaceborne w-band radar. J. Geophys. Res., 114.","DOI":"10.1029\/2008JD009973"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8941","DOI":"10.1002\/2013JD021303","article-title":"Estimating snow microphysical properties using collocated multisensor observations","volume":"119","author":"Wood","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5009","DOI":"10.5194\/amt-8-5009-2015","article-title":"Intercomparison of snowfall estimates derived from the cloudsat cloud profiling radar and the ground-based weather radar network over Sweden","volume":"8","author":"Norin","year":"2015","journal-title":"Atmos. Meas. Tech."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.2528\/PIER14030405","article-title":"Snowfall detectability of nasa\u2019s cloudsat: The first cross-investigation of its 2c-snow-profile product and national multi-sensor mosaic qpe (nmq) snowfall data","volume":"148","author":"Cao","year":"2014","journal-title":"Prog. Electromagn. Res."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3560","DOI":"10.1109\/TGRS.2008.2002030","article-title":"Cloudsat\u2019s cloud profiling radar after two years in orbit: Performance, calibration, and processing","volume":"46","author":"Tanelli","year":"2008","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10858","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1707633114","article-title":"Katabatic winds diminish precipitation contribution to the antarctic ice mass balance","volume":"114","author":"Grazioli","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3649","DOI":"10.1002\/grl.50706","article-title":"Airborne-radar and ice-core observations of annual snow accumulation over thwaites glacier, west antarctica confirm the spatiotemporal variability of global and regional atmospheric models","volume":"40","author":"Medley","year":"2013","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4189","DOI":"10.1175\/2011JCLI4074.1","article-title":"An assessment of precipitation changes over antarctica and the Southern Ocean since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses","volume":"24","author":"Bromwich","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"485","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-11-00094.1","article-title":"An overview of cmip5 and the experiment design","volume":"93","author":"Taylor","year":"2012","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08823","article-title":"The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment","volume":"463","author":"Moss","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1463","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1991","article-title":"Atmospheric moisture content associated with surface air temperatures over northern eurasia","volume":"30","author":"Ye","year":"2010","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Berg, P., Haerter, J.O., Thejll, P., Piani, C., Hagemann, S., and Christensen, J.H. (2009). Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 114.","DOI":"10.1029\/2009JD012008"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2941","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL059830","article-title":"Impact of increased water vapor on precipitation efficiency over northern Eurasia","volume":"41","author":"Ye","year":"2014","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cohen, J.L., Furtado, J.C., Barlow, M., Alexeev, V.A., and Cherry, J.E. (2012). Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39.","DOI":"10.1029\/2011GL050582"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4651","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JCLI3655.1","article-title":"Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming","volume":"23","author":"Seager","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL062589","article-title":"The hydrological sensitivity to global warming and solar geoengineering derived from thermodynamic constraints","volume":"42","author":"Kleidon","year":"2015","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3921","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-17-0631.1","article-title":"Evaluating emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity","volume":"31","author":"Caldwell","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5686","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3990.1","article-title":"Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming","volume":"19","author":"Held","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1773","DOI":"10.1126\/science.275.5307.1773","article-title":"Direct radiometric observations of the water vapor greenhouse effect over the equatorial Pacific Ocean","volume":"275","author":"Valero","year":"1997","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5469","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0234.1","article-title":"The super greenhouse effect in a changing climate","volume":"29","author":"Stephens","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"348","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2574","article-title":"Consistent evidence of increasing antarctic accumulation with warming","volume":"5","author":"Frieler","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4518","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00544.1","article-title":"Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks","volume":"26","author":"Armour","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9877","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL070907","article-title":"Dependence of global radiative feedbacks on evolving patterns of surface heat fluxes","volume":"43","author":"Rugenstein","year":"2016","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hand, R., Keenlyside, N.S., Omrani, N.-E., Bader, J., and Greatbatch, R.J. (2018). The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector. Clim. Dyn.","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-018-4151-1"},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1466","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-14-0211.1","article-title":"A parameterization of the probability of snow-rain transition","volume":"16","author":"Sims","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Behrangi, A., Yin, X., Rajagopal, S., Stampoulis, D., and Ye, H. (2018). On distinguishing snowfall from rainfall using near-surface atmospheric information: Comparative analysis, uncertainties, and hydrologic importance. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3240"},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1311","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-12-00227.1","article-title":"The earthcare satellite: The next step forward in global measurements of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation","volume":"96","author":"Illingworth","year":"2015","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/10\/10\/1583\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T15:23:38Z","timestamp":1760196218000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/10\/10\/1583"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,1]]},"references-count":56,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,10]]}},"alternative-id":["rs10101583"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs10101583","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,1]]}}}