{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,24]],"date-time":"2026-01-24T23:48:32Z","timestamp":1769298512051,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,21]],"date-time":"2019-01-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1548028800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002848","name":"Comisi\u00f3n Nacional de Investigaci\u00f3n Cient\u00edfica y Tecnol\u00f3gica","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PAI N\u00b082140001 (convocatoria 2014)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PAI N\u00b082140001 (convocatoria 2014)"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002848","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002850","name":"Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient\u00edfico y Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["N\u00b01160370"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["N\u00b01160370"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002850","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002850","name":"Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient\u00edfico y Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["N\u00b011150835"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["N\u00b011150835"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002850","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002850","name":"Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cient\u00edfico y Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Iniciaci\u00f3n N\u00b011171046"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Iniciaci\u00f3n N\u00b011171046"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002850","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Folivorous insects cause some of the most ecologically and economically important disturbances in forests worldwide. For this reason, several approaches have been developed to exploit the temporal richness of available satellite time series data to detect and quantify insect forest defoliation. Current approaches rely on parametric functions to describe the natural annual phenological cycle of the forest, from which anomalies are calculated and used to assess defoliation. Quantification of the natural variability of the annual phenological baseline is limited in parametric approaches, which is critical to evaluating whether an observed anomaly is \u201ctrue\u201d defoliation or only part of the natural forest variability. We present here a fully self-calibrated, non-parametric approach to reconstruct the annual phenological baseline along with its confidence intervals using the historical frequency of a vegetation index (VI) density, accounting for the natural forest phenological variability. This baseline is used to calculate per pixel (1) a VI anomaly per date and (2) an anomaly probability flag indicating its probability of being a \u201ctrue\u201d anomaly. Our method can be self-calibrated when applied to deciduous forests, where the winter VI values are used as the leafless reference to calculate the VI loss (%). We tested our approach with dense time series from the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to detect and map a massive outbreak of the native Ormiscodes amphimone caterpillars which occurred in 2015\u20132016 in Chilean Patagonia. By applying the anomaly probability band, we filtered out all pixels with a probability &lt;0.9 of being \u201ctrue\u201d defoliation. Our method enabled a robust spatiotemporal assessment of the O. amphimone outbreak, showing severe defoliation (60\u201380% and &gt;80%) over an area of 15,387 ha of Nothofagus pumilio forests in only 40 days (322 ha\/day in average) with a total of 17,850 ha by the end of the summer. Our approach is useful for the further study of the apparent increasing frequency of insect outbreaks due to warming trends in Patagonian forests; its generality means it can be applied in deciduous broad-leaved forests elsewhere.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs11020204","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,22]],"date-time":"2019-01-22T03:08:22Z","timestamp":1548126502000},"page":"204","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"title":["A Self-Calibrated Non-Parametric Time Series Analysis Approach for Assessing Insect Defoliation of Broad-Leaved Deciduous Nothofagus pumilio Forests"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6782-3579","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roberto","family":"Ch\u00e1vez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Geograf\u00eda, Lab. Geo-Informaci\u00f3n y Percepci\u00f3n Remota, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Valpara\u00edso, Valpara\u00edso 2362807, Chile"}]},{"given":"Ronald","family":"Rocco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Geograf\u00eda, Lab. Geo-Informaci\u00f3n y Percepci\u00f3n Remota, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Valpara\u00edso, Valpara\u00edso 2362807, Chile"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8928-3198","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"\u00c1lvaro","family":"Guti\u00e9rrez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8820808, Chile"}]},{"given":"Marcelo","family":"D\u00f6rner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Corporaci\u00f3n Nacional Forestal (CONAF), Ays\u00e9n 8330407, Chile"}]},{"given":"Sergio","family":"Estay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia 5110566, Chile"},{"name":"Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile, Santiago 8331150, Chile"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"723","DOI":"10.1641\/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Climate change and forest disturbances","volume":"51","author":"Dale","year":"2001","journal-title":"Bioscience"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"445","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01182854","article-title":"Effects of climate change on insect defoliator population processes in Canada\u2019s boreal forest: Some plausible scenarios","volume":"82","author":"Fleming","year":"1995","journal-title":"Water. 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