{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,28]],"date-time":"2026-04-28T00:55:16Z","timestamp":1777337716234,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":88,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"20","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,13]],"date-time":"2020-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1602547200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000781","name":"European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["755617"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["755617"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000781","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Changes in land cover (LC) can alter the basin hydrology by affecting the evaporation, infiltration, and surface and subsurface flow processes, and ultimately affect river water quantity and quality. This study aimed to monitor and predict the LC composition of a major, transboundary basin contributing to the Caspian Sea, the Aras River Basin (ARB). To this end, four LC maps of ARB corresponding to the years 1984, 2000, 2010, and 2017 were generated using Landsat satellite imagery from Armenia and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The LC gains and losses, net changes, exchanges, and the spatial trend of changes over 33 years (1984\u20132017) were investigated. The most important drivers of these changes and the most accurate LC transformation scenarios were identified, and a land change modeler (LCM) was applied to predict the LC change for the years 2027 and 2037. Validation results showed that LCM, with a Kappa index higher than 81%, is appropriate for predicting LC changes in the study area. The LC changes observed in the past indicate significant anthropogenic impacts on the basin, mainly by constructing new reservoir dams and expanding agriculture and urban areas, which are the major water-consuming sectors. Results show that over the past 33 years, agricultural areas have grown by more than 57% from 1984 to 2017 in the study area. Results also indicate that the given similar anthropogenic activities will keep on continuing in the ARB, and agricultural areas will increase by 2% from 2017 to 2027, and by another 1% from 2027 to 2037. Results of this study can support transboundary decision-making processes to analyze potential adverse impacts following past policies with neighboring countries that share the same water resources.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12203329","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,14]],"date-time":"2020-10-14T21:24:39Z","timestamp":1602710679000},"page":"3329","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Transboundary Basins Need More Attention: Anthropogenic Impacts on Land Cover Changes in Aras River Basin, Monitoring and Prediction"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Sajad","family":"Khoshnoodmotlagh","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan 49138-15739, Iran"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6313-2081","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jochem","family":"Verrelst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Parc Cient\u00edfic, Universitat de Val\u00e8ncia, 46980 Paterna, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alireza","family":"Daneshi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan 49138-15739, Iran"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8924-7143","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohsen","family":"Mirzaei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environment, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran 14115-111, Iran"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5108-1993","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hossein","family":"Azadi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium"},{"name":"Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, 20144 Hamburg, Germany"},{"name":"Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 16500 Prague, Czech Republic"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mohammad","family":"Haghighi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of RS and GIS, Islamic Azad University, Tehran 14778-93855, Iran"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Masoud","family":"Hatamimanesh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environment, Malayer University, Malayer 65719-95863, Iran"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Safar","family":"Marofi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Water Science Engineering Department, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan 65178-38695, Iran"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chemosphere.2018.03.172","article-title":"Chemosphere Relationship between urbanisation and pollutant emissions in transboundary river basins under the strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative","volume":"203","author":"Yu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Chemosphere"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111429","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2019.111429","article-title":"Remote Sensing of Environment Analysis of equivalent black carbon multi-year data at an oil pre-treatment plant: Integration with satellite data to identify black carbon transboundary sources","volume":"235","author":"Castagna","year":"2019","journal-title":"Remote Sens. 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