{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]],"date-time":"2026-06-15T17:25:58Z","timestamp":1781544358939,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,11]],"date-time":"2021-02-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1613001600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100018635","name":"Thousand Young Talents Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Y771071001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Y771071001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100018635","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata\u2013Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 in 1990 to 46,613 km2 in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km2 of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km2 in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13040647","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,12]],"date-time":"2021-02-12T16:12:10Z","timestamp":1613146330000},"page":"647","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":59,"title":["Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8586-1795","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fan","family":"Sun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yi","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"},{"name":"School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yaning","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yupeng","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qifei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jingxiu","family":"Qin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patient Mindje","family":"Kayumba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"7410","article-title":"The concept and mode of ecosystem sustainable management in arid desert areas in northwest China","volume":"39","author":"Chen","year":"2019","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. 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