{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,4]],"date-time":"2026-03-04T03:17:56Z","timestamp":1772594276531,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":87,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,26]],"date-time":"2021-05-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1621987200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"ArcticNet Inc.","award":["Project #20"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Project #20"]}]},{"name":"Canadian Foundation for Innovation","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]},{"name":"Parks Canada","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]},{"name":"Nunatsiavut Government","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]},{"name":"Queen's University","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]},{"name":"University of Waterloo","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Northern protected areas guard against habitat and species loss but are themselves highly vulnerable to environmental change due to their fixed spatial boundaries. In the low Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park (TMNP) of Canada, widespread greening has recently occurred alongside warming temperatures and regional declines in caribou. Little is known, however, about how biophysical controls mediate plant responses to climate warming, and available observational data are limited in temporal and spatial scope. In this study, we investigated the drivers of land cover change for the 9700 km2 extent of the park using satellite remote sensing and geostatistical modelling. Random forest classification was used to hindcast and simulate land cover change for four different land cover types from 1985 to 2019 with topographic and surface reflectance imagery (Landsat archive). The resulting land cover maps, in addition to topographic and biotic variables, were then used to predict where future shrub expansion is likely to occur using a binomial regression framework. Land cover hindcasts showed a 235% increase in shrub and a 105% increase in wet vegetation cover from 1985\/89 to 2015\/19. Shrub cover was highly persistent and displaced wet vegetation in southern, low-elevation areas, whereas wet vegetation expanded to formerly dry, mid-elevations. The predictive model identified both biotic (initial cover class, number of surrounding shrub neighbors), and topographic variables (elevation, latitude, and distance to the coast) as strong predictors of future shrub expansion. A further 51% increase in shrub cover is expected by 2039\/43 relative to 2014 reference data. Establishing long-term monitoring plots within TMNP in areas where rapid vegetation change is predicted to occur will help to validate remote sensing observations and will improve our understanding of the consequences of change for biotic and abiotic components of the tundra ecosystem, including important cultural keystone species.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13112085","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,26]],"date-time":"2021-05-26T21:56:44Z","timestamp":1622066204000},"page":"2085","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Rapid Ecosystem Change at the Southern Limit of the Canadian Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Emma L.","family":"Davis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada"}]},{"given":"Andrew J.","family":"Trant","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada"}]},{"given":"Robert G.","family":"Way","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Northern Environmental Geoscience Laboratory, Department of Geography and Planning, Queen\u2019s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada"}]},{"given":"Luise","family":"Hermanutz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, Memorial University, St. John\u2019s, NL A1B 3X9, Canada"}]},{"given":"Darroch","family":"Whitaker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Western Newfoundland and Labrador Field Unit, Parks Canada, Rocky Harbour, NL A0K 4N0, Canada"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"65","article-title":"Plant performance in a warmer world: General responses of plants from cold, northern biomes and the importance of winter and spring events","volume":"182","author":"Aerts","year":"2006","journal-title":"Plant Ecol."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Chapin, F.S., Jefferies, R.L., Reynolds, J.F., Shaver, G.R., Svoboda, J., and Chu, E.W. 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