{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,18]],"date-time":"2026-04-18T03:11:08Z","timestamp":1776481868461,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":75,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]],"date-time":"2021-07-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1625616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Natural Environment Research Council\u2019s ONE Planet Doctoral Training Partnership","award":["NE\/S007512\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/S007512\/1"]}]},{"name":"Horizon 2020 European Research Council","award":["725848"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["725848"]}]},{"name":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies","award":["NA19NES4320002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA19NES4320002"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Increasingly intense marine heatwaves threaten the persistence of many marine ecosystems. Heat stress-mediated episodes of mass coral bleaching have led to catastrophic coral mortality globally. Remotely monitoring and forecasting such biotic responses to heat stress is key for effective marine ecosystem management. The Degree Heating Week (DHW) metric, designed to monitor coral bleaching risk, reflects the duration and intensity of heat stress events and is computed by accumulating SST anomalies (HotSpot) relative to a stress threshold over a 12-week moving window. Despite significant improvements in the underlying SST datasets, corresponding revisions of the HotSpot threshold and accumulation window are still lacking. Here, we fine-tune the operational DHW algorithm to optimise coral bleaching predictions using the 5 km satellite-based SSTs (CoralTemp v3.1) and a global coral bleaching dataset (37,871 observations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). After developing 234 test DHW algorithms with different combinations of the HotSpot threshold and accumulation window, we compared their bleaching prediction ability using spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical models and sensitivity\u2013specificity analyses. Peak DHW performance was reached using HotSpot thresholds less than or equal to the maximum of monthly means SST climatology (MMM) and accumulation windows of 4\u20138 weeks. This new configuration correctly predicted up to an additional 310 bleaching observations globally compared to the operational DHW algorithm, an improved hit rate of 7.9%. Given the detrimental impacts of marine heatwaves across ecosystems, heat stress algorithms could also be fine-tuned for other biological systems, improving scientific accuracy, and enabling ecosystem governance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13142677","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]],"date-time":"2021-07-07T12:31:25Z","timestamp":1625661085000},"page":"2677","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":34,"title":["Fine-Tuning Heat Stress Algorithms to Optimise Global Predictions of Mass Coral Bleaching"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3712-6144","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Liam","family":"Lachs","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Natural & Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK"}]},{"given":"John C","family":"Bythell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Natural & Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0392-639X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Holly K","family":"East","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK"}]},{"given":"Alasdair J","family":"Edwards","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Natural & Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK"}]},{"given":"Peter J","family":"Mumby","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia"},{"name":"Palau International Coral Reef Center, Koror 96940, Palau"}]},{"given":"William J","family":"Skirving","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA"},{"name":"ReefSense Pty, Ltd., P.O. Box 343, Aitkenvale BC, QLD 4814, Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2426-7805","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Blake L","family":"Spady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA"},{"name":"ReefSense Pty, Ltd., P.O. Box 343, Aitkenvale BC, QLD 4814, Australia"}]},{"given":"James R.","family":"Guest","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Natural & Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1324","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-03732-9","article-title":"Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century","volume":"9","author":"Oliver","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. 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