{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,26]],"date-time":"2026-01-26T19:49:01Z","timestamp":1769456941747,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"16","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,10]],"date-time":"2021-08-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1628553600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["42001218"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42001218"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Land use change is an important way for human activities to affect ecosystems. Based on the land use demands and policies, the simulation of future land use changes under different scenarios can test the rationality of socio-economic and policy-oriented land use changes. In this study, we set three scenarios of regular growth, ecological protection, and ecotourism development in 2030 for the Beibu Gulf area, China. We simulated the spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of the future landscape pattern using the Scenario Generator Rule Based Module of InVEST. Meanwhile, the ecosystem service value (ESV) was estimated by the improved unit area value equivalent method to reveal the trend of ESVs under different regional development models. The results indicated that the land use changes in the Beibu Gulf during 1999\u20132014 showed significant spatial heterogeneity. The farmland was mainly distributed in Beihai, the forestland was located in Fangchenggang, while the orchard was concentrated on Qinzhou. Due to economic construction and urban expansion, construction land and aquaculture land were gradually growing, while farmland and mud flat continued to decrease. Between 2014 and 2030, the total ESV decreased in the regular growth scenario and gradually increased in the ecological protection scenario and ecotourism development scenario. In addition, by comparing the three scenarios, the ecotourism development scenario is a more reasonable model for Guangxi Beibu Gulf area, which realized the trade-off between tourism development and resource conservation. Therefore, regional planners should not only consider maximizing ESVs when planning for ecosystem services, but also strive to maintain a reasonable structure of ecosystem services. Some suggestions were provided in this paper at the macro level and the local development model level respectively, which offered some references for the rational allocation of land resources, ecological environmental protection and ecotourism development in the coastal area of Beibu Gulf.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13163161","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,10]],"date-time":"2021-08-10T08:57:14Z","timestamp":1628585834000},"page":"3161","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":39,"title":["Land Use Scenario Simulation and Ecosystem Service Management for Different Regional Development Models of the Beibu Gulf Area, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Dengyue","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China"}]},{"given":"Mingzhu","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Arts and Communication, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6222-215X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chunbo","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China"},{"name":"College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences\/Hubei Engineering Technology Research Center for Forestry Information, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China"}]},{"given":"Yuan","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Arts and Communication, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China"}]},{"given":"Zitao","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yuan, K., Li, F., Yang, H., and Wang, Y. (2019). The Influence of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Shangzhou District. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph16081321"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"388","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2019.01.002","article-title":"Land use\/cover change in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China: Reconciling the land use conflicts between development and protection","volume":"175","author":"Huang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Catena"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106004","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2019.106004","article-title":"Assessing and predicting changes in ecosystem service values based on land use\/cover change in the Bohai Rim coastal zone","volume":"111","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoser.2017.06.010","article-title":"Dynamic changes in the value of China\u2019s ecosystem services","volume":"26","author":"Xie","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecosyst. Serv."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100963","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoser.2019.100963","article-title":"Effects of land use and land cover change on ecosystem services in the Koshi River Basin, Eastern Nepal","volume":"38","author":"Rimal","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecosyst. Serv."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106507","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2020.106507","article-title":"Effect of land-use change and optimization on the ecosystem service values of Jiangsu province, China","volume":"117","author":"Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liao, Q., Wang, Z., and Huang, C. (2020). Green Infrastructure Offset the Negative Ecological Effects of Urbanization and Storing Water in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17218077"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5111","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-012-2929-x","article-title":"Land use pattern, socio-economic development, and assessment of their impacts on ecosystem service value: Study on natural wetlands distribution area (NWDA) in Fuzhou city, southeastern China","volume":"185","author":"Cai","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Monit. Assess."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105493","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2020.105493","article-title":"Ecosystem service value decreases more rapidly under the dual pressures of land use change and ecological vulnerability: A case study in Zhujiajian Island","volume":"201","author":"Xie","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dai, X., Johnson, B.A., Luo, P., Yang, K., Dong, L., Wang, Q., Liu, C., Li, N., Lu, H., and Ma, L. (2021). Estimation of Urban Ecosystem Services Value: A Case Study of Chengdu, Southwestern China. Remote Sens., 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13020207"},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"3248","article-title":"Evolution and driving force analysis of ecosystem service values in Guangxi Beibu Gulf coastal areas, China","volume":"38","author":"Luo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1038\/387253a0","article-title":"The value of the world\u2019s ecosystem services and natural capital","volume":"387","author":"Costanza","year":"1997","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138452","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138452","article-title":"Spatial differences of ecosystem services and their driving factors: A comparation analysis among three urban agglomerations in China\u2019s Yangtze River Economic Belt","volume":"725","author":"Luo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"7379","article-title":"Spatial characteristics analysis of ecological system service value in QianJiang City of Hubei Province","volume":"31","author":"Xu","year":"2011","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_15","first-page":"1740","article-title":"The value of ecosystem services in China","volume":"37","author":"Xie","year":"2015","journal-title":"Resour. Sci."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"475","article-title":"Spatial Heterogeneity Change of Guangzhou Ecosystem Services Value","volume":"38","author":"Hu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Trop. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"176","article-title":"Dynamic simulation of multi-scenario land use change based on CLUMondo model: A case study of coastal cities in Guangxi","volume":"32","author":"Guo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Remote. Sens. Land Resour."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lao, J., Wang, C., Wang, J., Pan, F., Xi, X., and Liang, L. (2020). Land Use Simulation of Guangzhou Based on Nighttime Light Data and Planning Policies. Remote Sens., 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12101675"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1401","DOI":"10.1007\/s11434-008-0169-9","article-title":"Scenario simulation and forecast of land use\/cover in northern China","volume":"53","author":"Li","year":"2008","journal-title":"Chin. Sci. Bull."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Zhang, H., and Zhang, B. (2005). Review on Land Use and Land Cover Change Models. J. Nat. Resour., 422\u2013431. Available online: https:\/\/kns.cnki.net\/kcms\/detail\/detail.aspx?FileName=ZRZX200503016&DbName=CJFQ2005."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2017.09.019","article-title":"A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects","volume":"168","author":"Liu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_22","first-page":"176","article-title":"Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change Along China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Coupling FLUS Model with SD Model","volume":"32","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Geo-Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"461","article-title":"LUCC simulation based on the cellular automata simulation: A case study of Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone","volume":"70","author":"Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Acta Geogr. Sin."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"64006","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab1827","article-title":"Optimizing wetland restoration to improve water quality at a regional scale","volume":"14","author":"Singh","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yang, X., Ji, G., Wang, C., Zuo, J., Yang, H., Xu, J., and Chen, R. (2019). Modeling nitrogen and phosphorus export with Invest model in Bosten Lake basin of Northwest China. PLoS ONE, 14.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0220299"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101081","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoser.2020.101081","article-title":"Impacts of rural tourism-driven land use change on ecosystems services provision in Erhai Lake Basin, China","volume":"42","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecosyst. Serv."},{"key":"ref_27","first-page":"151","article-title":"The Service Value and Driving Mechanism of Coastal Wetland Ecosystem in Beibu Gulf of Guangxi","volume":"36","author":"Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."},{"key":"ref_28","first-page":"2977","article-title":"Risk assessment of coastal ecosystem in Beibu Gulf, Guangxi of South China","volume":"22","author":"Chen","year":"2011","journal-title":"Chin. J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"615911","DOI":"10.3389\/fgene.2021.615911","article-title":"Ocean Currents Drove Genetic Structure of Seven Dominant Mangrove Species Along the Coastlines of Southern China","volume":"12","author":"Geng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front. Genet."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Richards, J.A. (1999). Remote Sensing Digital Image Analysis, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-03978-6"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Canty, M.J. (2014). Image Analysis, Classification and Change Detection in Remote Sensing: With Algorithms for ENVI\/IDL and Python, CRC Press.","DOI":"10.1201\/b17074"},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"281","article-title":"Dynamic Simulation and Eco-environmental Benefits Evaluation of Land Use Pattern in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone\u2014A Case Study of Qinzhou City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region","volume":"35","author":"He","year":"2015","journal-title":"Bull. Soil Water Conserv."},{"key":"ref_33","first-page":"107","article-title":"Spatio-temporal characteristics and scenario analysis of land-use change in the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim coastal area, China","volume":"40","author":"Su","year":"2016","journal-title":"Mar. Sci."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2040","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envpol.2018.06.082","article-title":"Coastal landscape planning for improving the value of ecosystem services in coastal areas: Using system dynamics model","volume":"242","author":"You","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ. Pollut."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2012.07.018","article-title":"Land use change and its effects on the value of ecosystem services along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico","volume":"82","author":"Lithgow","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9377","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-45804-w","article-title":"High-throughput sequencing and analysis of microbial communities in the mangrove swamps along the coast of Beibu Gulf in Guangxi, China","volume":"9","author":"Gong","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126588","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2021.126588","article-title":"Factors of ecosystem service values in a fast-developing region in China: Insights from the joint impacts of human activities and natural conditions","volume":"297","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"135153","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.135153","article-title":"Assessing ecological risks caused by human activities in rapid urbanization coastal areas: Towards an integrated approach to determining key areas of terrestrial-oceanic ecosystems preservation and restoration","volume":"708","author":"Zhai","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_39","first-page":"1320","article-title":"Simulation of land cover and biodiversity in Nanliu river basin in Beibu Gulf","volume":"40","author":"Tian","year":"2020","journal-title":"China Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"200","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geosus.2020.08.001","article-title":"Effects of climate, land use and land cover changes on soil loss in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China","volume":"1","author":"Huang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geogr. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoser.2016.11.010","article-title":"The impact of land use\/land cover change on ecosystem services in the central highlands of Ethiopia","volume":"23","author":"Tolessa","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecosyst. Serv."},{"key":"ref_42","first-page":"3441","article-title":"Ecological restoration zoning of territorial space based on the pattern simulation of eco-security scenario: A case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area","volume":"41","author":"Ma","year":"2021","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_43","first-page":"1062","article-title":"China\u2019s urbanization SD modelling and simulation based on land use","volume":"36","author":"Cao","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104267","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2019.104267","article-title":"Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in a poverty-stricken county of China and implications for poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies","volume":"91","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"368","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2014.06.018","article-title":"Modeling the effects of tourism and land regulation on land-use change in tourist regions: A case study of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin, China","volume":"41","author":"Mao","year":"2014","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"689182","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2021.689182","article-title":"What Are the Impacts of a Coastal Zone Protection Policy on Farmers\u2019 Livelihood Capital? Empirical Analysis From the Perspective of Farmer Participation","volume":"8","author":"Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front. Mar. Sci."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1007\/s11769-020-1095-2","article-title":"Spatial-temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Land Development Intensity in the Western China from 2000 to 2015","volume":"30","author":"Huang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Chin. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141778","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.141778","article-title":"Analysis of driving forces on wetland ecosystem services value change: A case in Northeast China","volume":"751","author":"Song","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hasan, S., Shi, W., and Zhu, X. (2020). Impact of land use land cover changes on ecosystem service value\u2014A case study of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao in South China. PLoS ONE, 15.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0231259"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"277","DOI":"10.11594\/jtls.07.03.14","article-title":"Mangrove Conservation in East Java: The Ecotourism Development Perspectives","volume":"7","author":"Luchman","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Trop. Life Sci."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2012.04.020","article-title":"Uncertainty in ecosystem services valuation and implications for assessing land use tradeoffs: An agricultural case study in the Minnesota River Basin","volume":"79","author":"Johnson","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cageo.2012.05.022","article-title":"Uncertainty in ecosystem mapping by remote sensing","volume":"50","author":"Rocchini","year":"2013","journal-title":"Comput. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1249","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-012-9791-7","article-title":"Are landscape ecologists addressing uncertainty in their remote sensing data?","volume":"27","author":"Lechner","year":"2012","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/13\/16\/3161\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T06:43:27Z","timestamp":1760165007000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/13\/16\/3161"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,10]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"16","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8]]}},"alternative-id":["rs13163161"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs13163161","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,10]]}}}