{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T15:32:06Z","timestamp":1772033526282,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,31]],"date-time":"2021-10-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1635638400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["KAKENHI grants (Grant number 19H05668 and 21H04934)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["KAKENHI grants (Grant number 19H05668 and 21H04934)"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II","award":["ArCS II"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ArCS II"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004285","name":"Saint Petersburg State University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75295423"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75295423"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004285","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>With permafrost warming, the observed discharge of the Kolyma River in northeastern Siberia decreased between 1930s and 2000; however, the underlying mechanism is not well understood. To understand the hydrological changes in the Kolyma River, it is important to analyze the long-term hydrometeorological features, along with the changes in the active layer thickness. A coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model was used to analyze the hydrological changes due to permafrost warming during 1979\u20132012, and the simulated results were validated with satellite-based products and in situ observational records. The increase in the active layer thickness by permafrost warming suppressed the summer discharge contrary to the increased summer precipitation. This suggests that the increased terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) contributed to increased evapotranspiration, which likely reduced soil water stress to plants. As soil freeze\u2013thaw processes in permafrost areas serve as factors of climate memory, we identified a two-year lag between precipitation and evapotranspiration via TWSA. The present results will expand our understanding of future Arctic changes and can be applied to Arctic adaptation measures.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13214389","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,1]],"date-time":"2021-11-01T22:24:22Z","timestamp":1635805462000},"page":"4389","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Effect of Permafrost Thawing on Discharge of the Kolyma River, Northeastern Siberia"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8340-5182","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kazuyoshi","family":"Suzuki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25 Showamachi, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8042-2902","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hotaek","family":"Park","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka 237-0061, Japan"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2532-4306","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Olga","family":"Makarieva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"North-Eastern Permafrost Station, Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Room 205, Portovaja St. 16, 685000 Magadan, Russia"},{"name":"Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Petersburg State University, 7-9 Universitetskaya Emb., 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9910-7806","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hironari","family":"Kanamori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan"}]},{"given":"Masahiro","family":"Hori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Sustainable Design, University of Toyama, 3190 Gofuku, Toyama 930-8555, Japan"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9116-2683","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Koji","family":"Matsuo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, Kitasato 1-ban, Tsukuba 305-0816, Japan"}]},{"given":"Shinji","family":"Matsumura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0810, Japan"}]},{"given":"Nataliia","family":"Nesterova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"North-Eastern Permafrost Station, Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Room 205, Portovaja St. 16, 685000 Magadan, Russia"},{"name":"Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Petersburg State University, 7-9 Universitetskaya Emb., 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9080-2717","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tetsuya","family":"Hiyama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2695","article-title":"Acidification of East Siberian Arctic Shelf waters through addition of freshwater and terrestrial carbon","volume":"9","author":"Semiletov","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nat. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"210","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pocean.2006.12.003","article-title":"Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas","volume":"73","author":"Dickson","year":"2007","journal-title":"Prog. Oceanogr."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"eabc4699","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abc4699","article-title":"Increasing riverine heat influx triggers Arctic sea ice decline and oceanic and atmospheric warming","volume":"6","author":"Park","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2005JC003424","article-title":"The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic","volume":"111","author":"Serreze","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Ocean"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2171","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1077445","article-title":"Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean","volume":"298","author":"Peterson","year":"2002","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"045015","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/4\/4\/045015","article-title":"Record Russian river discharge in 2007 and the limits of analysis","volume":"4","author":"Shiklomanov","year":"2009","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2004JD004583","article-title":"Increasing river discharge in the Eurasian Arctic: Consideration of dams, permafrost thaw, and fires as potential agents of change","volume":"109","author":"McClelland","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1175\/2007JHM845.1","article-title":"Streamflow characteristics and changes in Kolyma Basin in Siberia","volume":"9","author":"Majhi","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"355","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.4352","article-title":"Trend and interannual variation in summer precipitation in eastern Siberia in recent decades","volume":"36","author":"Fujinami","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14444","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-71464-2","article-title":"The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle","volume":"10","author":"Bellucci","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1002\/ppp.662","article-title":"Abrupt increases in soil temperatures following increased precipitation in a permafrost region, central Lena River basin, Russia","volume":"21","author":"Iijima","year":"2010","journal-title":"Permafr. Periglac. Process."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"045402","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/7\/4\/045402","article-title":"A longer climate memory carried by soil freeze-thaw processes in Siberia","volume":"7","author":"Matsumura","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1029\/2004GL019766","article-title":"Delayed impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on biosphere productivity in Asia","volume":"31","author":"Wang","year":"2004","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2198","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161.2016.1165890","article-title":"Satellite gravimetry-based analysis of terrestrial water storage and its relationship with run-off from the Lena River in eastern Siberia","volume":"37","author":"Suzuki","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.2166\/nh.2006.0002","article-title":"Influence of snow ablation and frozen ground on spring runoff generation in the Mogot Experimental Watershed, southern mountainous taiga of eastern Siberia","volume":"37","author":"Suzuki","year":"2006","journal-title":"Hydrol. Res."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1981","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-18-0253.1","article-title":"Differences in response of terrestrial water storage components to precipitation over 168 global river basins","volume":"20","author":"Zhang","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D15102","DOI":"10.1029\/2010JD015386","article-title":"The application of a coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE) for modeling of energy, water, and CO2 exchanges over a larch forest in eastern Siberia","volume":"116","author":"Park","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2873","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-014-2356-5","article-title":"Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes","volume":"44","author":"Park","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Brown, J., Ferrians, O.J., Heginbottom, J.A., and Melnikov, E.S. (2002). Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center). Version 2."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Verdin, K.L., and Greenlee, S.K. (1996, January 21\u201326). Development of Continental Scale Digital Elevation Models and Extraction of Hydrographic Features. Proceedings of the Third International Conference\/Workshop on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling, Santa Fe, Mexico."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1175\/1087-3562(2003)007<0001:GPTCAA>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Global percent tree cover at a spatial resolution of 500 m: First results of the MODIS vegetation continuous fields algorithm","volume":"7","author":"Hansen","year":"2003","journal-title":"Earth Interact."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1016\/S0034-4257(02)00078-0","article-title":"Global land cover mapping from MODIS: Algorithms and early results","volume":"83","author":"Friedl","year":"2002","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"997","DOI":"10.1029\/1999GB900046","article-title":"Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992","volume":"13","author":"Ramankutty","year":"1999","journal-title":"Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles"},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Food and Agriculture Organization (1995). Digital Soil Map of the World (CD-ROM), Food and Agriculture Organization."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Global Soil Data Task (2000). Global Soil Data Products CD-ROM (IGBP-DIS), CD-ROM, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Data and Information System, Potsdam, Germany, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3088","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3790.1","article-title":"Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling","volume":"19","author":"Sheffield","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"055002","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aa57a8","article-title":"Intercomparison of global river discharge simulations focusing on dam operation\u2014Multiple models analysis in two case-study river basins, Missouri-Mississippi and Green-Colorado","volume":"12","author":"Masaki","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1329","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-020-02892-2","article-title":"Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds","volume":"163","author":"Krysanova","year":"2020","journal-title":"Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Harris, I.C., and Jones, P.D. (2019, April 01). CRU TS4.02: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 4.02 of High-Resolution Gridded Data of Month-by-Month Variation in Climate (January 1901\u2013December 2017). Centre for Environmental Data Analysis. Available online: http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5285\/b2f81914257c4188b181a4d8b0a46bff."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Willmott, C.J., and Matsuura, K. (2021, July 30). Terrestrial Air Temperature and Precipitation: Monthly and Annual Time Series (1950\u20141999). Available online: http:\/\/climate.geog.udel.edu\/~climate\/html_pages\/README.ghcn_ts2.html."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3370100202","article-title":"Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation","volume":"10","author":"Legates","year":"1990","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00866198","article-title":"Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature","volume":"41","author":"Legates","year":"1990","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"402","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2017.01.023","article-title":"A 38-year (1978\u20132015) Northern Hemisphere daily snow cover extent product derived using consistent objective criteria from satellite-borne optical sensors","volume":"191","author":"Hori","year":"2017","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Suzuki, K., Matsuo, K., Yamazaki, D., Ichii, K., Iijima, Y., Papa, F., Yanagi, Y., and Hiyama, T. (2018). Hydrological variability and changes in the Arctic circumpolar tundra and the three largest pan-Arctic river basins from 2002 to 2016. Remote Sens., 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs10030402"},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"Beaudoing, H., Rodell, M., and NASA\/GSFC\/HSL (2019). GLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Monthly 0.25 \u00d7 0.25 Degree V2.0, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3867","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.13844","article-title":"Accelerated continental-scale snowmelt and ecohydrological impacts in the four largest Siberian river basins in response to spring warming","volume":"34","author":"Suzuki","year":"2020","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_37","first-page":"C43C-1784","article-title":"The Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (ArcticGRO)","volume":"2018","author":"Holmes","year":"2018","journal-title":"AGU Fall Meet. Abstr."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Shiklomanov, A.I., Holmes, R.M., McClelland, J.W., Tank, S.E., and Spencer, R.G.M. (2018, July 13). Arctic Great Rivers Observatory. Discharge Dataset, Version 20180713. Available online: https:\/\/www.arcticrivers.org\/data."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"Hydrometeorological Service of Kolyma Region (2018). Monthly Meteorological Bulletin, Gidrometeoizdat. (In Russian)."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.3103\/S1068373915020016","article-title":"Spatial features and new trends in thermal conditions of soil and depth of its seasonal thawing in the permafrost zone","volume":"40","author":"Sherstyukov","year":"2015","journal-title":"Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Hydrometeorological Service of Yakutia (2018). Monthly Meteorological Bulletin, Gidrometeoizdat. (In Russian)."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2009JD013470","article-title":"Noah land surface model modifications to improve snowpack prediction in the Colorado Rocky Mountains","volume":"115","author":"Barlage","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Atmos."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6043","DOI":"10.3390\/rs5116043","article-title":"Recent changes in terrestrial gross primary productivity in Asia from 1982 to 2011","volume":"5","author":"Ichii","year":"2013","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"286206","DOI":"10.1155\/2015\/286206","article-title":"Estimation of continental-basin-scale sublimation in the Lena River Basin, Siberia","volume":"2015","author":"Suzuki","year":"2015","journal-title":"Adv. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L067606","DOI":"10.1029\/2007GL029262","article-title":"MODIS\/Terra observed seasonal variations of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau","volume":"34","author":"Pu","year":"2007","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1329","DOI":"10.1134\/S1064229315100038","article-title":"Temperature regimes of northern taiga soils in the isolated permafrost zone of Western Siberia","volume":"48","author":"Goncharova","year":"2015","journal-title":"Eurasian Soil Sci."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.2136\/vzj2016.01.0010","article-title":"Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost\u2014A review","volume":"15","author":"Walvoord","year":"2016","journal-title":"Vadose Zone J."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-08240-4","article-title":"Permafrost is warming at a global scale","volume":"10","author":"Biskaborn","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2021EF002104","DOI":"10.1029\/2021EF002104","article-title":"Shifting contribution of climatic constraints on evapotranspiration in the boreal forest","volume":"9","author":"Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future"},{"key":"ref_50","first-page":"210","article-title":"The storage and aging of continental runoff in large reservoir systems of the world","volume":"26","author":"Sharma","year":"1997","journal-title":"Ambio"},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1073","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.1180","article-title":"Characteristics of soil moisture in permafrost observed in East Siberian taiga with stable isotopes of water","volume":"17","author":"Sugimoto","year":"2003","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.5914","article-title":"Seasonal changes in runoff characteristics on a permafrost watershed in the southern mountainous region of eastern Siberia","volume":"20","author":"Yamazaki","year":"2006","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3665","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.1369","article-title":"Connectivity and storage functions of channel fens and flat bogs in northern basins","volume":"17","author":"Quinton","year":"2003","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2008GL033857","article-title":"Variations of surface water extent and water storage in large river basins: A comparison of different global data sources","volume":"35","author":"Papa","year":"2008","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2014.12.041","article-title":"Characterization of snowmelt flux and groundwater storage in an alpine headwater basin","volume":"521","author":"Hood","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polar.2016.04.003","article-title":"Limits of pastoral adaptation to permafrost regions caused by climate change among the Sakha people in the middle basin of Lena River","volume":"10","author":"Takakura","year":"2016","journal-title":"Polar Sci."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1088\/1755-1315\/211\/1\/012062","article-title":"Atmospheric droughts in Southern Siberia in the late 20th and early 21st centuries","volume":"211","author":"Voropay","year":"2018","journal-title":"IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1440-1703.2002.00506.x","article-title":"Importance of permafrost as a source of water for plants in east Siberian taiga","volume":"17","author":"Sugimoto","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecol. Res."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/13\/21\/4389\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T07:23:49Z","timestamp":1760167429000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/13\/21\/4389"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,31]]},"references-count":58,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]}},"alternative-id":["rs13214389"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs13214389","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,31]]}}}