{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,14]],"date-time":"2026-04-14T02:23:49Z","timestamp":1776133429169,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":77,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,28]],"date-time":"2021-12-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640649600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U1903208"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U1903208"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013050","name":"Guangdong Foundation for Program of Science and Technology Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2020B1111530001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020B1111530001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013050","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013050","name":"Guangdong Foundation for Program of Science and Technology Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2019QN01L682"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2019QN01L682"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013050","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Quantification of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological parameters is of high importance and remains a challenge in arid areas. This study applied a modified distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to the Yarkant River basin, China to assess hydrological changes under future climate change scenarios. Climate change was assessed based on six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370), and several bias correction methods, whereas hydrological regime changes were assessed over two timeframes, referred to as the near future (2021\u20132049) and the far future (2071\u20132099). Results demonstrate that the DM (distribution mapping) and LOCI (local intensity scaling) bias correction methods most closely fit the projections of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The climate projections predicted a rise in temperature of 1.72\u20131.79 \u00b0C under the three SSP scenarios for the near future, and 3.76\u20136.22 \u00b0C under the three SSPs for the far future. Precipitation increased by 10.79\u201312% in the near future, and by 14.82\u201329.07% during the far future. It is very likely that streamflow will increase during both the near future (10.62\u201319.2%) and far future (36.69\u201370.4%) under all three scenarios. The increase in direct flow will be greater than baseflow. Summer and winter streamflow will increase the most, while the increase in streamflow was projected to reach a maximum during June and July over the near future. Over the far future, runoff reached a peak in May and June. The timing of peak streamflow will change from August to July in comparison to historical records. Both high- and low-flow magnitudes during March, April, and May (MAM) as well as June, July, and August (JJA) will increase by varying degrees, whereas the frequency of low flows will decrease during both MAM and JJA. High flow frequency in JJA was projected to decrease. Overall, our results reveal that the hydrological regime of the Yarkant River is likely to change and will be characterized by larger seasonal uncertainty and more frequent extreme events due to significant warming over the two periods. These changes should be seriously considered during policy development.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14010115","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,28]],"date-time":"2021-12-28T06:55:03Z","timestamp":1640674503000},"page":"115","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":54,"title":["Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Yanyun","family":"Xiang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Administration, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China"},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China"}]},{"given":"Yi","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China"}]},{"given":"Yaning","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China"}]},{"given":"Qifei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geographical Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030000, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2877","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-20-2877-2016","article-title":"Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use","volume":"20","author":"Adam","year":"2016","journal-title":"Hydrol. 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