{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T02:46:56Z","timestamp":1784170016255,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":95,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,5]],"date-time":"2022-02-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1644019200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Key R&amp;D Program of China","award":["2021YFE0194800"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021YFE0194800"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42171323, 41801338"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42171323, 41801338"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Alliance of International Science Organizations","award":["ANSO-CR-KP-2021-06"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ANSO-CR-KP-2021-06"]}]},{"name":"Dragon 5 proposal: Application of Sino-Eu Optical Data into Agronomic Models to Predict Crop Performance and to Monitor and Forecast Crop Pests and Diseases","award":["57457"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["57457"]}]},{"name":"External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences","award":["183611KYSB20200080"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["183611KYSB20200080"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Desert locust plagues can easily cause a regional food crisis and thus affect social stability. Preventive control of the disaster highlights the early detection of hopper gregarization before they form devastating swarms. However, the response of hopper band emergence to environmental fluctuation exhibits a time lag. To realize the dynamic forecast of band occurrence with optimal temporal predictors, we proposed an SVM-based model with a temporal sliding window technique by coupling multisource time-series imagery with historical locust ground survey observations from between 2000\u20132020. The sliding window method was based on a lagging variable importance ranking used to analyze the temporal organization of environmental indicators in band-forming sequences and eventually facilitate the early prediction of band emergence. Statistical results show that hopper bands are more likely to occur within 41\u201364 days after increased rainfall; soil moisture dynamics increasing by approximately 0.05 m\u00b3\/m\u00b3 then decreasing may enhance the chance of observing bands after 73\u201380 days. While sparse vegetation areas with NDVI increasing from 0.18 to 0.25 tend to witness bands after 17\u201340 days. The forecast model combining the optimal time lags of these dynamic indicators with other static indicators allows for a 16-day extended outlook of band presence in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Monthly predictions from February to December 2020 display an overall accuracy of 77.46%, with an average ROC-AUC of 0.767 and a mean F-score close to 0.772. The multivariate forecast framework based on the lagging effect can realize the early warning of band presence in different spatiotemporal scenarios, supporting early decisions and response strategies for desert locust preventive management.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14030747","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,6]],"date-time":"2022-02-06T20:38:40Z","timestamp":1644179920000},"page":"747","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["Dynamic Forecast of Desert Locust Presence Using Machine Learning with a Multivariate Time Lag Sliding Window Technique"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1979-1637","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ruiqi","family":"Sun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1710-8301","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wenjiang","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2865-5020","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yingying","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3276-1130","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Longlong","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5466-8637","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Biyao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5577-8632","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Huiqin","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yun","family":"Geng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3493-0401","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chao","family":"Ruan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naichen","family":"Xing","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"China Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural Resources, Beijing 100083, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xidong","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xueling","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"1270","article-title":"Review of locust remote sensing monitoring and early warning (Chinese)","volume":"24","author":"Huang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. 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