{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]],"date-time":"2025-10-13T15:04:48Z","timestamp":1760367888059,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,14]],"date-time":"2022-04-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1649894400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100018970","name":"Telkom University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100018970","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"ISEE International Joint Research Program","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The occurrence of post-sunset equatorial spread-F (ESF) could have detrimental effects on trans-ionospheric radio wave propagation used in modern communications systems. This problem calls for a simple but robust model that accurately predicts the occurrence of post-sunset ESF. Logistic regression was implemented to model the daily occurrence of post-sunset ESF as a function of the evening upward plasma drift (v). The use of logistic regression is formalized by y^=1\/[1+exp(\u2212z)], where y^ represents the probability of post-sunset ESF occurrence, and z is a linear function containing v. The value of v is derived from the vertical motion of the bottom side of the F-region in the evening equatorial ionosphere, which is observed by the ionosondes in Southeast Asia. Data points (938) of v and post-sunset ESF occurrence were collected in the equinox seasons from 2003 to 2016. The training set used 70% of the dataset to derive z and y^ and the remaining 30% was used to test the performance of y^. The expression z=\u22122.25+0.14v was obtained from the training set, and y^\u22650.5 (v \u2265 ~16.1 m\/s) and y^&lt;0.5 (v &lt; ~16.1 m\/s) represented the occurrence and non-occurrence of ESF, respectively, with an accuracy of ~0.8 and a true skill score (TSS) of ~0.6. Similarly, in the testing set, y^ shows an accuracy of ~0.8 and a TSS of ~0.6. Further analysis suggested that the performance of the z-function can be reliable in the daily F10.7 levels ranging from 60 to 140 solar flux units. The z-function implemented in the logistic regression (y^) found in this study is a novel technique to predict the post-sunset ESF occurrence. The performance consistency between the training set and the testing set concludes that the z-function and the y^ values of the proposed model could be a simple and robust mathematical model for daily nowcasting the occurrence or non-occurrence of post-sunset ESFs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14081896","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,19]],"date-time":"2022-04-19T02:39:31Z","timestamp":1650335971000},"page":"1896","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Modeling Post-Sunset Equatorial Spread-F Occurrence as a Function of Evening Upward Plasma Drift Using Logistic Regression, Deduced from Ionosondes in Southeast Asia"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9532-497X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Prayitno","family":"Abadi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung 40173, Indonesia"},{"name":"School of Electrical Engineering, Telkom University, Kab. Bandung 40257, Indonesia"}]},{"given":"Umar Ali","family":"Ahmad","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electrical Engineering, Telkom University, Kab. Bandung 40257, Indonesia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3098-3859","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuichi","family":"Otsuka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan"}]},{"given":"Punyawi","family":"Jamjareegulgarn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Space Technology Department Center, King Mongkut\u2019s Institute Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL), Prince of Chumphon Campus, Chumphon 86160, Thailand"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7077-4464","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dyah Rahayu","family":"Martiningrum","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung 40173, Indonesia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7902-8190","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Agri","family":"Faturahman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Center for Space, Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung 40173, Indonesia"}]},{"given":"Septi","family":"Perwitasari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), Tokyo 184-8795, Japan"}]},{"given":"Randy Erfa","family":"Saputra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electrical Engineering, Telkom University, Kab. Bandung 40257, Indonesia"}]},{"given":"Reza Rendian","family":"Septiawan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electrical Engineering, Telkom University, Kab. Bandung 40257, Indonesia"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"249","article-title":"Scattering of radio waves by the F region of the ionosphere","volume":"43","author":"Booker","year":"1938","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1766","DOI":"10.1029\/2003GL017301","article-title":"The first coordinated ground- and space-based optical observations of equatorial plasma bubbles","volume":"30","author":"Kelley","year":"2003","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. 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