{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,5]],"date-time":"2026-02-05T23:46:46Z","timestamp":1770335206264,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,7]],"date-time":"2022-05-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1651881600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"CUNY-Remote Sensing Earth (CUNY-CREST) Institute"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Despite great advances in remote sensing technologies, accurate satellite information is sometimes challenged in tropical regions where dense vegetation prevents the instruments from retrieving reliable readings. In this work, we introduce a satellite-based landslide rainfall threshold for the country of Colombia by studying 4 years of rainfall measurements from The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) for 346 rainfall-triggered landslide events (the dataset). We isolate the two successive rainy\/dry periods leading to each landslide to create variables that simulate the dynamics of antecedent wetness and dryness. We test the performance of the derived variables (Rainfall Period 1 (PR1), Rainfall Sum 1 (RS1), Rainfall Period 2 (PR2), Rainfall Sum 2 (RS2), and Dry Period (DT)) in a logistic regression that includes three (3) static parameters (Soil Type (ST), Landcover (LC), and Slope angle). Results from the logistic model describe the influence of each variable in landslide occurrence with an accuracy of 73%. Subsequently, we use these dynamic variables to model a landslide threshold that, in the absence of satellite antecedent soil moisture data, helps describe the interactions between the dynamic variables and the slope angle. We name it the Landslide Triggering Factor\u2014LTF. Subsequently, with a training dataset (65%) and one for testing (35%) we evaluate the LTF threshold performance and compare it to the well-known event duration (E-D) threshold. Results demonstrate that The LTF performs better than the E-D threshold for the training and testing datasets at 71% and 81% respectively.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14092239","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,8]],"date-time":"2022-05-08T23:27:25Z","timestamp":1652052445000},"page":"2239","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["A Landslide Numerical Factor Derived from CHIRPS for Shallow Rainfall Triggered Landslides in Colombia"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6116-4912","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cheila Avalon","family":"Cullen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CUNY-Remote Sensing Earth System Institute (CUNY-CREST Institute), The City University of New York, New York, NY 10453, USA"}]},{"given":"Rafea","family":"Al Suhili","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2648-2197","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Edier","family":"Aristizabal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medell\u00edn 050034, Colombia"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Girty, G.H. (2021, July 01). Perilous Earth: Understanding Processes behind Natural Disasters, ver. 1.0 Chapter 8 Landslides. Available online: http:\/\/www.sci.sdsu.edu\/visualgeology\/naturaldisasters\/."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"927","DOI":"10.1130\/G33217.1","article-title":"Global patterns of loss of life from landslides","volume":"40","author":"Petley","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geology"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kim, H.G., Lee, D.K., and Park, C. (2018). Assessing the cost of damage and effect of adaptation to landslides considering climate change. Sustainability, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/su10051628"},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"36","article-title":"Landslides: Investigation and Mitigation","volume":"247","author":"Cruden","year":"1996","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Board Spec. Rep."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sidle, R.C., and Ochiai, H. (2006). Landslides: Processes, Prediction, and Land Use, American Geophysical Union.","DOI":"10.1029\/WM018"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"673","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-9-673-2009","article-title":"Evaluation of a preliminary satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm using global landslide inventories","volume":"9","author":"Kirschbaum","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"621","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-015-1736-4","article-title":"Susceptibility assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical basins and mountainous terrains","volume":"78","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"497","article-title":"SHIA_Landslide: A distributed conceptual and physically based model to forecast the temporal and spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins","volume":"13","author":"Velez","year":"2015","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cullen, C.A., Al-Suhili, R., and Khanbilvardi, R. (2016). Guidance index for shallow landslide hazard analysis. Remote Sens., 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs8100866"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"362","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1090-0241(2004)130:4(362)","article-title":"Stability Analyses of Rainfall Induced Landslides","volume":"130","author":"Collins","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Glade, T., Anderson, M., and Crozier, M. (2004). Landslide Hazard and Risk, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.. Available online: https:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=UFQk0I4EUiwC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false.","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470012659"},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"23","article-title":"The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows","volume":"62","author":"Caine","year":"1980","journal-title":"Geogr. Ann. Ser. A Phys. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.12911\/22998993\/142183","article-title":"Rainfall-Induced Landslide Thresholds Development by Considering Different Rainfall Parameters: A Review","volume":"22","author":"Maturidi","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Ecol. Eng."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1007\/s12303-020-0001-3","article-title":"Estimating rainfall threshold and temporal probability for landslide occurrences in Darjeeling Himalayas","volume":"24","author":"Dikshit","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geosci. J."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1871","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gsf.2017.10.008","article-title":"Early warning system for shallow landslides using rainfall threshold and slope stability analysis","volume":"9","author":"Naidu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Geosci. Front."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2455","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-020-04407-9","article-title":"Estimation of rainfall threshold for the early warning of shallow landslides along National Highway-10 in Darjeeling Himalayas","volume":"105","author":"Mandal","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2257","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-15-2257-2015","article-title":"A dynamic landslide hazard assessment system for Central America and Hispaniola","volume":"15","author":"Kirschbaum","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3267","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-25-3267-2021","article-title":"Satellite rainfall products outperform ground observations for landslide prediction in India","volume":"25","author":"Brunetti","year":"2021","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2017.02.001","article-title":"Statistical approaches for the definition of landslide rainfall thresholds and their uncertainty using rain gauge and satellite data","volume":"285","author":"Rossi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105563","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2021.105563","article-title":"Assessing two methods of defining rainfall intensity and duration thresholds for shallow landslides in data-scarce catchments of the Colombian Andean Mountains","volume":"206","author":"Marin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Catena"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enggeo.2008.03.010","article-title":"Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview","volume":"102","author":"Castellanos","year":"2008","journal-title":"Eng. Geol."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.19053\/01203053.v36.n64.2017.6511","article-title":"El incierto crecimiento econ\u00f3mico colombiano","volume":"36","year":"2017","journal-title":"Apuntes Cenes"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"596","DOI":"10.1111\/disa.12391","article-title":"Spatial and temporal patterns and the socioeconomic impacts of landslides in the tropical and mountainous Colombian Andes","volume":"44","year":"2020","journal-title":"Disasters"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0699(2007)12:1(4)","article-title":"Linking Long-Term Water Balances and Statistical Scaling to Estimate River Flows along the Drainage Network of Colombia","volume":"12","author":"Poveda","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Hydrol. Eng."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2194","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.2232","article-title":"Improved long-term mean annual rainfall fields for Colombia","volume":"31","author":"Poveda","year":"2011","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"NOAA\u2014Physical Science Laboratory (2022, February 25). Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2). NOAA ENSO, Available online: https:\/\/psl.noaa.gov\/enso\/mei\/."},{"key":"ref_27","first-page":"67","article-title":"Diagn\u00f3stico del Ciclo Anual y Efectos del ENSO Sobre la Intensidad M\u00e1xima de Lluvias de Duraci\u00f3n Entre 1 y 24 Horas en los Andes de Colombia","volume":"5","author":"Poveda","year":"2002","journal-title":"Meteorol. Colomb."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"El Espectador (2020, October 19). Avalancha en Mocoa, una de las Peores Tragedias de 2017. Available online: https:\/\/www.elespectador.com\/noticias\/nacional\/avalancha-en-mocoa-una-de-las-peores-tragedias-de-2017\/."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Benfield, A. (2020, July 04). Global Catastrophe Recap. Available online: http:\/\/thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com\/Documents\/20190508-analytics-if-april-global-recap.pdf."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1029\/2005RG000183","article-title":"The shuttle radar topography mission","volume":"45","author":"Farr","year":"2007","journal-title":"Rev. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Buchhorn, M., Bertels, L., Smets, B., De Roo, B., Lesiv, M., Tsendbazar, N.E., Masiliunas, D., and Linlin, L. (2020). Copernicus Global Land Service: Land Cover 100m: Version 3 Globe 2015\u20132019: Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, Zenodo."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Eswaran, H., Reich, P., and Padmanabhan, E. (2016). World soil resources opportunities and challenges. World Soil Resources and Food Security, CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Instituto Geogr\u00e1fico Agust\u00edn Codazzi- Subdirecci\u00f3n de Agrolog\u00eda\u2014Grupo Interno de Trabajo Geom\u00e1tica (2020, August 14). Mapas de Suelos del Territorio Colombiano a Escala 1:100.000, Available online: http:\/\/metadatos.igac.gov.co\/geonetwork\/srv\/spa\/catalog.search#\/metadata\/b857e651-b8d2-4bf2-9e03-41a038c7206a."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7992","DOI":"10.1002\/2013WR014560","article-title":"Evolution of soil wetting patterns preceding a hydrologically induced landslide inferred from electrical resistivity survey and point measurements of volumetric water content and pore water pressure","volume":"49","author":"Lehmann","year":"2013","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"150066","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2015.66","article-title":"The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations\u2014A new environmental record for monitoring extremes","volume":"2","author":"Funk","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9671.2006.01004.x","article-title":"Spatial prediction of landslide hazard using logistic regression and ROC analysis","volume":"10","author":"Gorsevski","year":"2006","journal-title":"Trans. GIS"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1937","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-12-1937-2012","article-title":"Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: Rare event logistic regression with replications","volume":"12","author":"Guns","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.22237\/jmasm\/1209614580","article-title":"On Measuring the Relative Importance of Explanatory Variables in a Logistic Regression","volume":"7","author":"Thomas","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Mod. Appl. Stat. Methods"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2007","DOI":"10.1631\/jzus.2006.A2007","article-title":"GIS-based logistic regression method for landslide susceptibility mapping in regional scale","volume":"7","author":"Zhu","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci. A"},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"1687","article-title":"Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Logistic Regression Analysis and GIS Tools","volume":"19","author":"Akbari","year":"2014","journal-title":"Electron. J. Geotech. Eng."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-012-0380-2","article-title":"A comparison of logistic regression-based models of susceptibility to landslides in western Colorado, USA","volume":"11","author":"Regmi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Lee, S. (2005, January 20\u201324). Cross-verification of spatial logistic regression for landslide susceptibility analysis: A case study of Korea. Proceedings of the 31st International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, ISRSE 2005: Global Monitoring for Sustainability and Security, St. Petersburg, Russia. Available online: http:\/\/www.scopus.com\/inward\/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84879728712&partnerID=tZOtx3y1."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"425","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-013-0391-7","article-title":"Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis, support vector machines, and logistic regression","volume":"11","author":"Kavzoglu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"749","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-013-0728-5","article-title":"Landslide susceptibility mapping by binary logistic regression, analytical hierarchy process, and statistical index models and assessment of their performances","volume":"69","author":"Pourghasemi","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/j.catena.2013.11.014","article-title":"Landslide susceptibility mapping at central Zab basin, Iran: A comparison between analytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio and logistic regression models","volume":"115","author":"Shahabi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Catena"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2004.06.010","article-title":"The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan","volume":"65","author":"Ayalew","year":"2005","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1613\/jair.953","article-title":"SMOTE: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique","volume":"16","author":"Chawla","year":"2002","journal-title":"J. Artif. Intell. Res."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cageo.2013.10.009","article-title":"Landslides triggered by rainfall: A semi-automated procedure to define consistent intensity\u2013duration thresholds","volume":"63","author":"Segoni","year":"2014","journal-title":"Comput. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1285","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-019-01170-2","article-title":"Empirical rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain)","volume":"16","author":"Valenzuela","year":"2019","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-013-0408-2","article-title":"Integrating intensity-duration-based rainfall threshold and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimate towards generating early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in parts of the Garhwal Himalaya, India","volume":"11","author":"Mathew","year":"2014","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1059","DOI":"10.1007\/s000240050017","article-title":"Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical \u2018Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model","volume":"157","author":"Glade","year":"2000","journal-title":"Pure Appl. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"317","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-010-0219-7","article-title":"Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets","volume":"7","author":"Liao","year":"2010","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1002\/esp.1237","article-title":"Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA","volume":"31","author":"Godt","year":"2006","journal-title":"Earth Surf. Processes Landf."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-009-0177-0","article-title":"Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA","volume":"7","author":"Baum","year":"2009","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1007\/s00267-003-0257-1","article-title":"Evaluation of flood and landslide risk to the population of Italy","volume":"36","author":"Guzzetti","year":"2005","journal-title":"Environ. Manag."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/14\/9\/2239\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T23:07:25Z","timestamp":1760137645000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/14\/9\/2239"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,7]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,5]]}},"alternative-id":["rs14092239"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs14092239","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,7]]}}}