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To address the low accuracy and poor stability of model predictions of wheat FHB, a prediction method of wheat FHB that couples a logistic regression mechanism-based model and k-nearest neighbours (KNN) model is proposed in this paper. First, we selected predictive factors, including remote sensing-based and meteorological factors. Then, we quantitatively expressed the factor weights of the disease occurrence and development mechanisms in the disease prediction model by using a logistic model. Subsequently, we integrated the obtained factor weights into the predictive factors and input the predictive factors with weights into the KNN model to predict the incidence of wheat FHB. Finally, the accuracy and generalizability of the models were evaluated. Wheat fields in Changfeng, Dingyuan, Fengyuan, and Feidong counties, Anhui Province, where wheat FHB often occurs, were used as the study area. The incidences of wheat FHB on 29 April and 10 May 2021 were predicted. Compared with a model that did not consider disease mechanism, the accuracy of our model increased by approximately 13%. The overall accuracies of the models for the two dates were 0.88 and 0.92, and the F1 index was 0.86 and 0.94, respectively. The results show that the predictions made with the logistic-KNN model had higher accuracy and better stability than those made with the KNN model, thus achieving remote sensing-based high-precision prediction of wheat FHB.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14122732","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,12]],"date-time":"2022-06-12T23:55:24Z","timestamp":1655078124000},"page":"2732","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Combining Disease Mechanism and Machine Learning to Predict Wheat Fusarium Head Blight"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Lu","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingying","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingxin","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4587-2489","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Linyi","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xing","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenjiang","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China"},{"name":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Earth Observation of Hainan Province, Hainan Research Institute, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sanya 572029, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cropro.2016.10.002","article-title":"Fusarium head blight of wheat: Pathogenesis and control strategies","volume":"91","author":"Dweba","year":"2017","journal-title":"Crop Prot."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cj.2017.09.006","article-title":"A journey to understand wheat Fusarium head blight resistance in the Chinese wheat landrace Wangshuibai","volume":"6","author":"Jia","year":"2018","journal-title":"Crop J."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cropro.2015.02.025","article-title":"Management of Fusarium head blight of wheat and barley","volume":"73","author":"Wegulo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Crop Prot."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"251","article-title":"Breeding for the resistance to Fusarium head blight of wheat in China. 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