{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]],"date-time":"2026-07-21T04:52:12Z","timestamp":1784609532661,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":106,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]],"date-time":"2022-07-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1657065600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Lazio Region government","award":["A0375-2020-36588"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["A0375-2020-36588"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Lightning is an important threat to life and properties and its forecast is important for several applications. In this paper, we show the performance of the \u201cdynamic lightning scheme\u201d for next-day total strokes forecast. The predictions were compared against strokes recorded by a ground observational network for a forecast period spanning one year. Specifically, a total of 162 case studies were selected between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021, characterized by at least 3000 observed strokes over Italy. The events span a broad range of lightning intensity from about 3000 to 600,000 strokes in one day: 69 cases occurred in summer, 46 in fall, 18 in winter, and 29 in spring. The meteorological driver was the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 4.1) and we focused on the next-day forecast. Strokes were simulated by adding three extra variables to WRF, namely, the potential energies for positive and negative cloud to ground flashes and intracloud strokes. Each potential energy is advected by WRF, it is built by the electrification processes occurring into the cloud, and it is dissipated by lightning. Observed strokes were remapped onto the WRF model grid with a 3 km horizontal resolution for comparison with the strokes forecast. Results are discussed for the whole year and for different seasons. Moreover, statistics are presented for the land and the sea. In general, the results of this study show that lightning forecast with the dynamic lightning scheme and WRF model was successful for Italy; nevertheless, a careful inspection of forecast performance is necessary for tuning the scheme. This tuning is dependent on the season. A numerical experiment changing the microphysics scheme used in WRF shows the sensitivity of the results according to the choice of the microphysics scheme.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14143244","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]],"date-time":"2022-07-06T21:15:52Z","timestamp":1657142152000},"page":"3244","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["A Year-Long Total Lightning Forecast over Italy with a Dynamic Lightning Scheme and WRF"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7890-9394","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefano","family":"Federico","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Research Council of Italy\u2014Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5461-9728","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rosa Claudia","family":"Torcasio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Research Council of Italy\u2014Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2468-3577","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martina","family":"Lagasio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CIMA Research Foundation, Via A. Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Barry H.","family":"Lynn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Givat Ram, Jerusalem 91904, Israel"},{"name":"Weather It Is, Ltd., Efrat 91344, Israel"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Silvia","family":"Puca","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Protection Department, via Vitorchiano 4, 00189 Rome, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3808-365X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefano","family":"Dietrich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Research Council of Italy\u2014Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"American Meteorological Society (1924). Lightning explodes dynamite. Mon. Weakly Rev., 52, 313.","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1924)52<313b:LED>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"American Meteorological Society (1924). Loss of forty-seven head of cattle by a single lightning bolt. Mon. Weakly Rev., 52, 452.","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1924)52<452a:LOFHOC>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"608","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(1996)009<0608:FOLCIT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Fluctuations of lightning casualties in the United States: 1959\u20131990","volume":"9","author":"Lopez","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1995)010<0114:LCAPDI>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Lightning casualties and property damage in Colorado from 1950 to 1991 based on Storm Data","volume":"10","author":"Lopez","year":"1995","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"786","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(2002)041<0786:TFSLCF>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"The 2000 fire season: Lightning-caused fires","volume":"41","author":"Rorig","year":"2002","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1344","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(1996)035<1344:ILCPDI>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Insured lightning-caused property damage in three western states","volume":"35","author":"Holle","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"627","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2004)019<0627:ASUPAF>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"A small updraft producing a fatal lightning flash","volume":"19","author":"Hodanish","year":"2004","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1563","DOI":"10.1175\/JAM2287.1","article-title":"Deaths, injuries, and damages from lightning in the United States in the 1890s in comparison with the 1990s","volume":"44","author":"Holle","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1501","DOI":"10.1175\/2009BAMS2765.1","article-title":"A reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality","volume":"90","author":"Ashley","year":"2009","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14471462","DOI":"10.1175\/2010WAF2222393.1","article-title":"Using the 21 June 2008 California lightning outbreak to improve dry lightning forecast procedures","volume":"25","author":"Wallmann","year":"2010","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2543","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JAMC2237.1","article-title":"Preliminary development and evaluation of lightning jump algorithms for the real-time detection of severe weather","volume":"48","author":"Schultz","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-14-0072.1","article-title":"Variability of CONUS lightning in 2003\u20132012 and associated impacts","volume":"54","author":"Koshak","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_13","unstructured":"(2022, June 03). Epicentro\u2014Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0. Available online: www.epicentro.iss.it\/fulmini\/epidemiologia."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"847","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-12-00039.1","article-title":"Cold-season thunderstorms in Finland and their effect on aviation safety","volume":"94","author":"Saltikoff","year":"2013","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"499","DOI":"10.2514\/3.45335","article-title":"Lightning strikes to a NASA airplane penetrating thunderstorms at low altitudes","volume":"23","author":"Mazur","year":"1986","journal-title":"J. Aircr."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"Sweers, G., Birch, B., and Gokcen, J. (2022, June 03). Lightning Strikes: Protection, Inspection, and Repair. Aero. Available online: https:\/\/www.boeing.com\/commercial\/aeromagazine\/articles\/2012_q4\/4\/."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"18","article-title":"When lightning strikes","volume":"5","author":"Rash","year":"2010","journal-title":"AeroSaf. World"},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Parodi, A., Mazzarella, V., Milelli, M., Lagasio, M., Realini, E., Federico, S., Torcasio, R.C., Kerschbaum, M., Llasat, M.C., and Rigo, T. (2022, June 03). A Nowcasting Model for Severe Weather Events at Airport Spatial Scale: The Case Study of Milano Malpensa. SIDs (SESAR Innovation Days). Available online: https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/profile\/Riccardo-Biondi-2\/project\/SINOPTICA-H2020\/attachment\/61d353a4b3729f0f619eaa4f\/AS:1108251361972224@1641239123907\/download\/SID_SINOPTICA_paper_final_revision.pdf?context=ProjectUpdatesLog."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2320","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1986)114<2320:CTGLAI>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in mesoscale convective complexes","volume":"114","author":"Goodman","year":"1986","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1991)006<0003:CLTSLS>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Correlating lightning to severe local storms in the northeastern United States","volume":"6","author":"Kane","year":"1991","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1175\/1525-7541(2000)001<0005:CRAFIT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Catastrophic rainfall and flooding in Texas","volume":"1","author":"Smith","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1747","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2004)132<1747:DRALNO>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Doppler radar and lightning network observations of a severe outbreak of tropical cyclone tornadoes","volume":"132","author":"McCaul","year":"2004","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2566","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR3201.1","article-title":"Cloud-to-ground lightning flash parameters associated with heavy rainfall alarms in the Denver, Colorado, Urban Drainage and Flood Control District ALERT Network","volume":"134","author":"Underwood","year":"2006","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JTECHA1286.1","article-title":"A total lightning trending algorithm to identify severe thunderstorms","volume":"27","author":"Gatlin","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3186","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-12-00287.1","article-title":"Documenting storm severity in the mid-Atlantic region using lightning and radar information","volume":"141","author":"Rudlosky","year":"2013","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-14-00064.1","article-title":"Exploring lightning jump characteristics","volume":"30","author":"Chronis","year":"2015","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"ACL 4-1","DOI":"10.1029\/2002JD002347","article-title":"Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector","volume":"108","author":"Christian","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Holle, R.L., Said, R.K., and Brooks, W.A. (2018, January 12\u201315). Monthly GLD360 lightning percentages by continent. Proceedings of the 7th International Lightning Meteorology Conference, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2609","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-11-00299.1","article-title":"Application of a lightning data assimilation technique in the WRF-ARW Model at cloud-resolving scales for the tornado outbreak of 24 May 2011","volume":"140","author":"Fierro","year":"2012","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Torcasio, R.C., Federico, S., Comellas Prat, A., Panegrossi, G., D\u2019Adderio, L.P., and Dietrich, S. (2021). Impact of lightning data assimilation on the short-term precipitation forecast over the Central Mediterranean Sea. Remote Sens., 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13040682"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"405","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-13-00028.1","article-title":"An evaluation of the efficacy of using observed lightning to improve convective lightning forecasts","volume":"30","author":"Lynn","year":"2015","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2877","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-18-0403.1","article-title":"Assimilation of radar radial velocity, reflectivity, and pseudo\u2013water vapor for convective-scale NWP in a variational framework","volume":"147","author":"Lai","year":"2019","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2003)018<0562:NSIAGU>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Nowcasting storm initiation and growth using GOES-8 and WSR-88D data","volume":"18","author":"Roberts","year":"2003","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2004)019<0131:SFDPCS>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective storm nowcasting","volume":"19","author":"Wilson","year":"2004","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JAMC2496.1","article-title":"Nowcasting convective storm initiation using satellite-based box-averaged cloud-top cooling and cloud-type trends","volume":"50","author":"Sieglaff","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1039","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-14-0129.1","article-title":"Probabilistic 0\u20131-h convective initiation nowcasts that combine geostationary satellite observations and numerical weather prediction model data","volume":"54","author":"Mecikalski","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"461","DOI":"10.1175\/JTECH-D-14-00184.1","article-title":"Kalman filtering\u2013based probabilistic nowcasting of object-oriented tracked convective storms","volume":"32","author":"Rossi","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"La Fata, A., Amato, F., Bernardi, M., D\u2019Andrea, M., Procopio, R., and Fiori, E. (2022). Horizontal grid spacing comparison among Random Forest algorithms to nowcast Cloud-to-Ground lightning occurrence. Stoch Environ. Res. Risk Assess.","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-1138938\/v1"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2269","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1994)075<2269:IOAWHB>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Identification of aviation weather hazards based on the integration of radar and lightning data","volume":"75","author":"Stern","year":"1994","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"MacGorman, D.R., and Rust, W.D. (1998). The Electrical Nature of Storms, Oxford University Press."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"706","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2004)019<0706:NTACOK>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Nowcasting thunderstorm anvil clouds over Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station","volume":"19","author":"Short","year":"2004","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.3390\/s8010157","article-title":"Lightning sensors for observing, tracking and nowcasting severe weather","volume":"8","author":"Price","year":"2008","journal-title":"Sensors"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1123","DOI":"10.1175\/2007JAMC1656.1","article-title":"The operational mesogammascale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto Nowcast system","volume":"47","author":"Saxen","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2010.08.010","article-title":"Nowcasting thunderstorms in the Mediterranean region using lightning data","volume":"100","author":"Kohn","year":"2011","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3093","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-10-05031.1","article-title":"Modeling the flash rate of thunderstorms. Part I: Framework","volume":"139","author":"Dahl","year":"2011","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1818","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1994)122<1818:DRSODT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Doppler radar signatures of developing thunderstorms and their potential to indicate the onset of cloud-to-ground lightning","volume":"122","author":"Hondl","year":"1994","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"640","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1999)014<0640:TCOCTG>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Thunderstorm characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida: A study of lightning initiation signatures as indicated by the WSR-88D","volume":"14","author":"Gremillion","year":"1999","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12351248","DOI":"10.1175\/2010WAF2222387.1","article-title":"Investigating the potential of using radar echo reflectivity to nowcast cloud-to-ground lightning initiation over southern Ontario","volume":"25","author":"Yang","year":"2010","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1175\/2010WAF2222431.1","article-title":"Radar nowcasting of cloud-to-ground lightning over Houston, Texas","volume":"26","author":"Mosier","year":"2011","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-11-00035.1","article-title":"Radar nowcasting of total lightning over the Kennedy Space Center","volume":"27","author":"Seroka","year":"2012","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1931","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-11-0246.1","article-title":"An enhanced geostationary satellite\u2013based convective initiation algorithm for 0\u20132-h nowcasting with object tracking","volume":"51","author":"Walker","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-16-0031.1","article-title":"The Usefulness and Economic Value of Total Lightning Forecasts Made with a Dynamic Lightning Scheme Coupled with Lightning Data Assimilation","volume":"32","author":"Lynn","year":"2017","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14983","DOI":"10.1029\/96JD00941","article-title":"A one-dimensional lightning parameterization","volume":"101","author":"Solomon","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.1080\/02286203.2005.11442325","article-title":"An explicit microphysics thunderstorm model","volume":"25","author":"Solomon","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Model. Simul."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4075","DOI":"10.1029\/2000JD000244","article-title":"Simulated three-dimensional branched lighting in a numerical thunderstorm model","volume":"107","author":"Mansell","year":"2002","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D12101","DOI":"10.1029\/2004JD005287","article-title":"Charge structure and lightning sensitivity in a simulated multicell thunderstorm","volume":"110","author":"Mansell","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"459","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(2001)040<0459:ALPFNC>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"A lightning parameterization for numerical cloud models","volume":"40","author":"MacGorman","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Appl. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2004.11.021","article-title":"Description and first results of an explicit electrical scheme in a 3D cloud resolving model","volume":"76","author":"Barthe","year":"2005","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"ref_59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D24202","DOI":"10.1029\/2010JD014405","article-title":"Estimation of total lightning from various storm parameters: A cloud- resolving model study","volume":"115","author":"Barthe","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2390","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-12-00278.1","article-title":"The implementation of an explicit charging and discharge lightning scheme within the WRF-ARW Model: Benchmark simulations of a continental squall line, a tropical cyclone, and a winter storm","volume":"141","author":"Fierro","year":"2013","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_61","unstructured":"Skamarock, W.C. (2008). A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR\/TN-4751STR, CiteSeerX."},{"key":"ref_62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9919","DOI":"10.1029\/92JD00719","article-title":"A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions","volume":"97","author":"Price","year":"1992","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"709","DOI":"10.1175\/2008WAF2222152.1","article-title":"Forecasting lightning threat using cloud-resolving model simulations","volume":"24","author":"McCaul","year":"2009","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D09104","DOI":"10.1029\/2008JD010370","article-title":"A fifth-power relationship for lightning activity from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite observations","volume":"114","author":"Yoshida","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"D04205","DOI":"10.1029\/2008JD010868","article-title":"Predicting the potential for lightning activity in Mediterranean storms based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamic and microphysical fields","volume":"115","author":"Yair","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"429","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-6-429-2013","article-title":"Evaluating a lightning parameterization based on cloud-top height for mesoscale numerical model simulations","volume":"6","author":"Wong","year":"2013","journal-title":"Geosci. Model Dev."},{"key":"ref_67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4238","DOI":"10.1002\/2016JD026115","article-title":"Lightning Potential Index performances in multimicrophysical cloud-resolving simulations of a back-building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 event","volume":"122","author":"Lagasio","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_68","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1545","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-19-0101.1","article-title":"Sensitivities of the WRF lightning forecasting algorithm to parameterized microphysics and boundary layer schemes","volume":"35","author":"McCaul","year":"2020","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_69","unstructured":"Bright, D.R., Wandishin, M.S., Jewell, R.E., and Weiss, S.J. (2022, June 03). A Physically Based Parameter for Lightning Prediction and Its Calibration in Ensemble Forecasts. Available online: http:\/\/ams.confex.com\/ams\/pdfpapers\/84173.pdf."},{"key":"ref_70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1993)121<0021:AAOTCI>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"An analysis of the conditional instability of the tropical atmosphere","volume":"121","author":"Williams","year":"1993","journal-title":"Mon. Weather Rev."},{"key":"ref_71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12623","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL080267","article-title":"CAPE times P explains lightning over land but not the land-ocean contrast","volume":"45","author":"Romps","year":"2018","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1470","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-11-00144.1","article-title":"Predicting cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning in weather forecast models","volume":"27","author":"Lynn","year":"2012","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_73","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13151","DOI":"10.1029\/JD094iD11p13151","article-title":"The tripole structure of thunderstorms","volume":"94","author":"Williams","year":"1989","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1777","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1994)122<1777:HDOEAM>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Horizontal distribution of electrical and meteorological conditions across the stratiform region of a mesoscale convective system","volume":"122","author":"Stolzenburg","year":"1994","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2933","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-14-2933-2014","article-title":"Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: Implementation and preliminary results","volume":"14","author":"Federico","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3112","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-10-05032.1","article-title":"Modeling the flash rate of thunderstorms. Part II: Implementation","volume":"139","author":"Dahl","year":"2011","journal-title":"Mon. Weather Rev."},{"key":"ref_77","unstructured":"Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D.O., Liu, Z., Berner, J., Wang, W., Powers, J.G., Duda, M.G., and Barker, D.M. (2019). A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 4. No. NCAR\/TN-556+STR, NCAR Technical Note, National Center for Atmospheric Research."},{"key":"ref_78","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5095","DOI":"10.1175\/2008MWR2387.1","article-title":"Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization","volume":"136","author":"Thompson","year":"2008","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_79","unstructured":"Janjic, Z.L. (2022, June 03). Nonsingular Implementation of the Mellor\u2013Yamada Level 2.5 Scheme in the NCEP Meso Model; NCEP Office Note 437, Available online: http:\/\/www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov\/officenotes\/newernotes\/on437.pdf."},{"key":"ref_80","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1000531001463","article-title":"Impact of atmospheric surface-layer parameterizations in the new land-surface scheme of the NCEP mesoscale Eta model","volume":"85","author":"Chen","year":"1997","journal-title":"Bound.-Layer Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_81","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3077","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model","volume":"46","author":"Dudhia","year":"1989","journal-title":"J. Atmos. Sci."},{"key":"ref_82","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16663","DOI":"10.1029\/97JD00237","article-title":"Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave","volume":"102","author":"Mlawer","year":"1997","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.5194\/adgeo-23-11-2010","article-title":"Prediction of lightning flash density with the WRF model","volume":"23","author":"Lynn","year":"2010","journal-title":"Adv. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_84","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1598","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1978)106<1598:EPOOTC>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Electrical properties of oceanic tropical clouds at Ponape, Micronesia","volume":"106","author":"Takahashi","year":"1978","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_85","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1007\/s11214-008-9345-0","article-title":"Charge separation mechanisms in clouds","volume":"137","author":"Saunders","year":"2008","journal-title":"Space Sci. Rev."},{"key":"ref_86","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"L11108","DOI":"10.1029\/2004GL019821","article-title":"Lightning detection with 3D-discrimination of intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges","volume":"31","author":"Betz","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_87","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2008.06.012","article-title":"LINET\u2014An international lightning detection network in Europe","volume":"91","author":"Betz","year":"2009","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"ref_88","unstructured":"Petracca, M. (2016). Studio dell\u2019Attivit\u00e0 Elettrica Nelle Nubi Temporalesche ed Utilizzo dei Dati di Fulminazione per la Meteorologia Operativa. [Ph.D. Thesis, University of Ferrara]."},{"key":"ref_89","first-page":"129","article-title":"The WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6)","volume":"42","author":"Hong","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Korean Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_90","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1175\/2007MWR2123.1","article-title":"Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events","volume":"136","author":"Roberts","year":"2008","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_91","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106025","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2022.106025","article-title":"Lightning Potential Index and its spatial and temporal characteristics in COSMO NWP model","volume":"268","year":"2022","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"ref_92","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"714","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-10-05046.1","article-title":"Probabilistic forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on the identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts","volume":"26","author":"Sobash","year":"2011","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_93","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1002\/met.25","article-title":"Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: A review and proposed framework","volume":"15","author":"Ebert","year":"2008","journal-title":"Meteorol. Appl."},{"key":"ref_94","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"931","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF2007106.1","article-title":"Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP","volume":"23","author":"Kain","year":"2008","journal-title":"Weather Forecast."},{"key":"ref_95","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kalnay, E. (2002). Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511802270"},{"key":"ref_96","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.5194\/asr-14-187-2017","article-title":"Impact of the assimilation of lightning data on the precipitation forecast at different forecast ranges","volume":"14","author":"Federico","year":"2017","journal-title":"Adv. Sci. Res."},{"key":"ref_97","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2018.03.009","article-title":"WRF simulations for a heavy rainfall event in southern Italy Verification and sensitivity tests","volume":"20","author":"Avolio","year":"2018","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"ref_98","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1141","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM630.1","article-title":"The impact of different physical parameterizations and their interactions on cold season QPF in the American River Basin","volume":"8","author":"Jankov","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_99","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lagasio, M., Parodi, A., Pulvirenti, L., Meroni, A.N., Boni, G., Pierdicca, N., Marzano, F.S., Luini, L., Venuti, G., and Realini, E. (2019). A synergistic use of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model and high-resolution earth observation products to improve precipitation forecast. Remote Sens., 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs11202387"},{"key":"ref_100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1839","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-19-1839-2019","article-title":"The impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the very short-term rainfall forecasts of RAMS@ISAC: Application to two case studies in Italy","volume":"19","author":"Federico","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_101","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4373","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-16-0053.1","article-title":"Assimilation of flash extent data in the variational framework at convection-allowing scales: Proof of-concept and evaluation for the short-term forecast of the 24 May 2011 tornado outbreak","volume":"144","author":"Fierro","year":"2016","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2887","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.49712556006","article-title":"Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system","volume":"125","author":"Buizza","year":"1999","journal-title":"Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3515","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcp.2007.02.014","article-title":"Ensemble forecasting","volume":"227","author":"Leutbecher","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Comput. Phys."},{"key":"ref_104","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3297","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1997)125<3297:EFANAT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method","volume":"125","author":"Toth","year":"1997","journal-title":"Mon. Weakly Rev."},{"key":"ref_105","unstructured":"Wilks, D.S. (2019). Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Elsevier Science."},{"key":"ref_106","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7183","DOI":"10.1029\/2000JD900719","article-title":"Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram","volume":"106","author":"Taylor","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/14\/14\/3244\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T23:43:17Z","timestamp":1760139797000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/14\/14\/3244"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]]},"references-count":106,"journal-issue":{"issue":"14","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7]]}},"alternative-id":["rs14143244"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs14143244","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,6]]}}}