{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,10]],"date-time":"2026-02-10T16:47:08Z","timestamp":1770742028767,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,12]],"date-time":"2022-11-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668211200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Nature Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["32060344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["32060344"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Nature Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["S20210209Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["S20210209Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Postgraduate Research Innovation Project","award":["32060344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["32060344"]}]},{"name":"Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Postgraduate Research Innovation Project","award":["S20210209Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["S20210209Z"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Fire prevention policies during different periods may lead to changes in the drivers of forest fires. Here, we use historical fire data and apply the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in the boreal forests of China from 1981 to 2020 (40 years). We divided the fire data into four periods using the old and new Chinese Forest Fire Regulations as a dividing line. Our objectives here were: to explore the influence of key historical events on the drivers of forest fires in northern China, establish a probability model of forest fire occurrence, and draw a probability map of forest fire occurrence and a fire risk zone map, so as to interpret the differences in the drivers of forest fires and fire risk changes over different periods. The results show that: (1) The model results from 1981 to 2020 (all years) did not improve between 2009 and 2020 (the most recent period), indicating the importance of choosing the appropriate modeling time series length and incorporating key historical events in future forest fire modeling; (2) Climate factors are a dominant factor affecting the occurrence of forest fires during different periods. In contrast with previous research, we found that here, it is particularly important to pay attention to the relevant indicators of the autumn fire prevention period (average surface temperature, sunshine hours) in the year before the fire occurrence. In addition, the altitude and the location of watchtowers were considered to have a significant effect on the occurrence of forest fires in the study area. (3) The medium and high fire risk areas in our three chosen time periods (1981\u201314 March 1988; 15 March 1988\u20132008; 2009\u20132020) have changed significantly. Fire risks were higher in the east and southeast areas of the study area in all periods. The northern primeval forest area had fewer medium-risk areas before the new and old regulations were formulated, but the medium-risk areas increased significantly after the old regulations were revised. Our study will help understand the drivers and fire risk distribution of forest fires in the boreal forests of China under the influence of history and will help decision-makers optimize fire management strategies to reduce potential fire risks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14225724","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]],"date-time":"2022-11-14T04:24:10Z","timestamp":1668399850000},"page":"5724","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["Effects of Forest Fire Prevention Policies on Probability and Drivers of Forest Fires in the Boreal Forests of China during Different Periods"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3725-4656","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qing","family":"Zhou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China"},{"name":"Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station of Daxing\u2019an Mountains, Genhe 022350, China"}]},{"given":"Heng","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China"},{"name":"Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station of Daxing\u2019an Mountains, Genhe 022350, China"}]},{"given":"Zhiwei","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (2000). 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