{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,15]],"date-time":"2026-04-15T02:20:06Z","timestamp":1776219606656,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,17]],"date-time":"2022-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668643200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000921","name":"Short-Term Scientific Mission (STSM) of the COST Action","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CA18135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CA18135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000921","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000921","name":"Short-Term Scientific Mission (STSM) of the COST Action","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["C265157"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["C265157"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000921","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)","award":["CA18135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CA18135"]}]},{"name":"COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)","award":["C265157"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["C265157"]}]},{"name":"Integrated Future Wildfire Hot Spot Mapping for Austria (Austria Fire Futures)","award":["CA18135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CA18135"]}]},{"name":"Integrated Future Wildfire Hot Spot Mapping for Austria (Austria Fire Futures)","award":["C265157"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["C265157"]}]},{"name":"Climate and Energy Fund and carried out within the framework of the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP)","award":["CA18135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CA18135"]}]},{"name":"Climate and Energy Fund and carried out within the framework of the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP)","award":["C265157"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["C265157"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Extreme forest fires have been a historic concern in the forests of Canada, the Russian Federation, and the USA, and are now an increasing threat in boreal Europe, where recent fire events in 2014 and 2018 drew attention to Sweden. Our study objective was to understand the vulnerability of Swedish forests to fire by spatially analyzing historical burned areas, and to link fire events with weather, landscape, and fire-related socioeconomic factors. We developed an extensive database of 1 \u00d7 1 km2 homogenous grids, where monthly burned areas were derived from the MODIS FireCCI51 dataset. The database consists of various socio-economic, topographic-, forest-, and weather-related remote sensing products. To include new factors in the IIASA\u2019s FLAM model, we developed a random forest model to assess the spatial probabilities of burned areas. Due to Sweden\u2019s geographical diversity, fire dynamics vary between six biogeographical zones. Therefore, the model was applied to each zone separately. As an outcome, we obtained probabilities of burned areas in the forests across Sweden and observed burned areas were well captured by the model. The result accuracy differs with respect to zone; the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.875 and 0.94 for zones with few fires, but above 0.95 for zones with a higher number of fire events. Feature importance analysis and their variability across Sweden provide valuable information to understand the reasons behind forest fires. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code, population and road densities, slope and aspect, and forest stand volume were found to be among the key fire-related factors in Sweden. Our modeling approach can be extended to hotspot mapping in other boreal regions and thus is highly policy-relevant. Visualization of our results is available in the Google Earth Engine Application.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14225826","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,18]],"date-time":"2022-11-18T04:08:40Z","timestamp":1668744520000},"page":"5826","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Regional Variability and Driving Forces behind Forest Fires in Sweden"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Reinis","family":"Cimdins","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, 80101 Joensuu, Finland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0940-9366","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrey","family":"Krasovskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agriculture Forestry and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3832-6236","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Florian","family":"Kraxner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agriculture Forestry and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1163886","article-title":"Fire in the Earth system","volume":"324","author":"Bowman","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1696","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2015.0345","article-title":"Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: Perceptions versus realities in a changing world","volume":"371","author":"Doerr","year":"2016","journal-title":"Philos. 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