{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,3]],"date-time":"2026-05-03T06:57:17Z","timestamp":1777791437581,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,17]],"date-time":"2023-01-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1673913600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Central Non-profit Research Institution of Chinese Academy of Forestry","award":["CAFYBB2020ZE005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CAFYBB2020ZE005"]}]},{"name":"Central Non-profit Research Institution of Chinese Academy of Forestry","award":["CAFYBB2020ZE005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CAFYBB2020ZE005"]}]},{"name":"Central Non-profit Research Institution of Chinese Academy of Forestry","award":["CAFYBB2020GD001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CAFYBB2020GD001"]}]},{"name":"Central Non-profit Research 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Xinjiang","award":["2021B03002-3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021B03002-3"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Maintaining the integrity and stability of oasis ecosystems is an important topic in the field of ecological research. Assessment of ecosystem services and their changes can provide important support for the sustainable development of oases. This study took the Dunhuang oasis in the hyper-arid area as the research object and used 1990, 2010, and 2020 Landsat series satellite images to complete the land use interpretation by random forest classification. Then we estimated the ecosystem services value (ESV) by using benefit transfer method, and predicted the trend of ecosystem service value changes under three scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method and the patch generation land use simulation model (AHP-PLUS model). The results showed that the vegetation areas of the Dunhuang Oasis first decreased and then increased during 1990\u20132020. The decrease was largely due to the expansion of built-up land and farmland, and the increase was mainly contributed by the implementation of ecological protection policies. The path of changes in the ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis during 1990\u20132020 was well consistent with that of vegetation areas, with a maximum of 9068.15\u00d7106 yuan (in 1990) and a minimum of 6271.46\u00d7106 yuan (in 2010). Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that urbanization reduced ESV, and the implementation of ecological policies enhanced ESV. The ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis for the year 2030 under the ecological conservation scenario could reach 7631.07\u00d7106 yuan, which is 381.1\u00d7106 yuan higher that under the economic development scenario. The ecological conservation scenario is the optimal option to achieve sustainable development of the Dunhuang Oasis. We suggested that the government should continuously enhance the protection of forests and waterbodies, reasonably restrict production and domestic water consumption, and efficiently increase the proportion of ecological water consumption. In addition, this study improved the evaluation method of oasis ESV based on the proportion of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of grasslands with different coverage, which is important for improving the environment in arid areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15030564","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,18]],"date-time":"2023-01-18T02:31:11Z","timestamp":1674009071000},"page":"564","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Changes in Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values of Dunhuang Oasis from 1990 to 2030"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Fan","family":"Yi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Dunhuang Desert Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Kumtag Desert, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qiankun","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Dunhuang Desert Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Kumtag Desert, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhongjing","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Lab of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China"},{"name":"Breeding Base for State Key Laboratory of Land Degradation and Ecological Restoration in Northwest China, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750102, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yonghua","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Dunhuang Desert Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Kumtag Desert, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Leilei","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Dunhuang Desert Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Kumtag Desert, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bin","family":"Yao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Dunhuang Desert Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Kumtag Desert, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qi","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Dunhuang Desert Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"},{"name":"Observation and Research Station of Kumtag Desert, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Dunhuang 736200, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1121","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1172460","article-title":"Enhancement of biodiversity and ecosystem services by ecological restoration: A meta-analysis","volume":"325","author":"Newton","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1455","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaf2295","article-title":"Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital","volume":"352","author":"Ouyang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoser.2012.07.011","article-title":"The ecosystem services agenda: Bridging the worlds of natural science and economics, conservation and development, and 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