{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,15]],"date-time":"2026-04-15T20:32:56Z","timestamp":1776285176510,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,20]],"date-time":"2023-02-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1676851200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Modeling of land use and land cover (LULC) is a very important tool, particularly in the agricultural field: it allows us to know the potential changes in land area in the future and to consider developments in order to prevent probable risks. The idea is to give a representation of probable future situations based on certain assumptions. The objective of this study is to make future predictions in land use and land cover in the watershed \u201c9 April 1947\u201d, and in the years 2028, 2038 and 2050. Then, the maps obtained with the climate predictions will be integrated into an agro-hydrological model to know the water yield, the sediment yield and the water balance of the studied area by 2050.The future land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios were created using a CA-Markov forecasting model. The results of the simulation of the LULC changes were considered satisfactory, as shown by the values obtained from the kappa indices for agreement (\u03bastandard) = 0.73, kappa for lack of information (\u03bano) = 0.76, and kappa for location at grid cell level (\u03balocation) = 0.80. Future scenarios modeled in LULC indicate a decrease in agricultural areas and wetlands, both of which can be seen as a warning of crop loss. There is, on the other hand, an increase in forest areas that could be an advantage for the biodiversity of the fauna and flora in the \u201c9 April 1947\u201d watershed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15041162","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,21]],"date-time":"2023-02-21T01:39:28Z","timestamp":1676943568000},"page":"1162","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":86,"title":["Future Scenarios of Land Use\/Land Cover (LULC) Based on a CA-Markov Simulation Model: Case of a Mediterranean Watershed in Morocco"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3702-2495","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohamed","family":"Beroho","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Georisk & Georesources (G2R) Research Team, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Tangier (FST), Abdelmalek Essaadi University (UAE), Tangier 90000, Morocco"},{"name":"Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Scientific Division, National Institute for Agricultural Research of Rabat (INRA), P.O. Box 415, Rabat 10000, Morocco"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6088-5785","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hamza","family":"Briak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Excellence for Soil and Fertilizer Research in Africa (CESFRA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), 660 Lot, Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8583-632X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"El Khalil","family":"Cherif","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Systems and Robotics, Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), Centre for Management of Maritime Infrastructure (CGN), Borgo Grotta Gigante 42\/C, Sgonico, 34010 Trieste, Italy"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7203-6294","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Imane","family":"Boulahfa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georisk & Georesources (G2R) Research Team, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Tangier (FST), Abdelmalek Essaadi University (UAE), Tangier 90000, Morocco"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4351-0142","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abdessalam","family":"Ouallali","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Process Engineering and Environment Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Mohammedia, Hassan II University of Casablanca, PB 146 Road to Rabat, Mohammadia 20650, Morocco"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0311-193X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rachid","family":"Mrabet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Scientific Division, National Institute for Agricultural Research of Rabat (INRA), P.O. Box 415, Rabat 10000, Morocco"}]},{"given":"Fassil","family":"Kebede","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center of Excellence for Soil and Fertilizer Research in Africa (CESFRA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), 660 Lot, Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3991-1269","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandre","family":"Bernardino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Systems and Robotics, Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Khadija","family":"Aboumaria","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georisk & Georesources (G2R) Research Team, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Tangier (FST), Abdelmalek Essaadi University (UAE), Tangier 90000, Morocco"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lambin, E.F., and Geist, H. (2006). 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