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This study uses Nanning, a Chinese landscape garden city, as an example. Based on spatial granularity and extent perspectives, using 30 m land use data, the optimal scale for an ecological risk assessment (ERA) and prediction is confirmed. This study also explores the patterns of spatial and temporal changes in ecological risk in Nanning on the optimal scale. At the same time, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model is used to predict Nanning\u2019s ecological risk in 2036 under two scenarios and to propose ecological conservation recommendations in light of the study results. The study results show that: a spatial granularity of 120 m and a spatial extent of 7 km are the best scales for ERA and prediction in Nanning. Although the spatial distribution of ecological risk levels is obviously different, the overall ecological risk is relatively low, and under the scenario of ecological protection in 2036, the area of high ecological risk in Nanning is small. The results can provide theoretical support for ERA and the prediction of landscape cities and ecological civilization construction.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15051304","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,27]],"date-time":"2023-02-27T02:04:11Z","timestamp":1677463451000},"page":"1304","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Ecological Risk Assessment and Prediction Based on Scale Optimization\u2014A Case Study of Nanning, a Landscape Garden City in China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9464-3442","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jianjun","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"},{"name":"Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Yanping","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Zihao","family":"Feng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Renjie","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8295-0496","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guoqing","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"},{"name":"Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Haotian","family":"You","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"},{"name":"Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]},{"given":"Xiaowen","family":"Han","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics and Geoinformation, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"},{"name":"Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"9","article-title":"Dynamics of global forest area: Results from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015","volume":"352","author":"Keenan","year":"2015","journal-title":"For. 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