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Various assumptions and policies influence land use structure and are a key factor in decisions made by policymakers. Meanwhile, the spatial autocorrelation effect between land use types has rarely been considered in existing land use spatial simulation models, and the simulation accuracy needs to be further improved. Thus, in this study, the driving mechanisms of LUC are analyzed. The quantity demand and spatial distribution of land use are predicted under natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and sustainability development (SD) scenarios in Zhengzhou based on the coupled Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) model and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) considering Spatial Autocorrelation (PLUS-SA). We conclude the following. (1) The land use type in Zhengzhou was mainly cultivated land, and 83.85% of the land for urban expansion was cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. The reduction in forest from 2010 to 2020 was less than that from 2000 to 2010 due to the implementation of the policy in which farmland is transformed back into forests. (2) The accuracy of PLUS-SA was better than that of the traditional PLUS and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models, and its Kappa coefficient, overall accuracy, and FOM were 0.91, 0.95, and 0.29, respectively. (3) Natural factors (temperature, precipitation, and DEM) contributed significantly to the expansion of cultivated land, and the increase in forest, grass, and construction land was greatly affected by socioeconomic factors (population, GDP, and proximity to town). (4) The land use structure will be more in line with the current requirements for sustainable urban development in the SD scenario, and the economic and ecological benefits will increase by 0.75 \u00d7 104 billion CNY and 1.71 billion CNY, respectively, in 2035 compared with those in 2020. The PLUS-SA model we proposed had higher simulation accuracy in Zhengzhou Compared with the traditional PLUS and FLUS models, and our research framework can provide a basis for decision-makers to formulate sustainable land use development policies to achieve high-quality and sustainable urban development.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15153762","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,31]],"date-time":"2023-07-31T01:48:50Z","timestamp":1690768130000},"page":"3762","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":35,"title":["Coupled MOP and PLUS-SA Model Research on Land Use Scenario Simulations in Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, Central China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Pengfei","family":"Guo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6679-9543","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Haiying","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Institute of Urban Big Data, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China"}]},{"given":"Fen","family":"Qin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Institute of Urban Big Data, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China"}]},{"given":"Changhong","family":"Miao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China"},{"name":"Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China"}]},{"given":"Fangfang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Resources and Environment\/Collaborative Innovation Center of Urban-Rural Coordinated Development, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2017.05.040","article-title":"Ecological and environmental effects of land use change in rapid urbanization: The case of Hangzhou, China","volume":"81","author":"Du","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecol. 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