{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T13:25:34Z","timestamp":1773840334400,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,7]],"date-time":"2023-08-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1691366400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["42230712"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42230712"]}]},{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["51574037"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51574037"]}]},{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["2022JM-143"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022JM-143"]}]},{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["300102262104"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["300102262104"]}]},{"name":"Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province","award":["42230712"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42230712"]}]},{"name":"Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province","award":["51574037"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51574037"]}]},{"name":"Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province","award":["2022JM-143"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022JM-143"]}]},{"name":"Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province","award":["300102262104"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["300102262104"]}]},{"name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD","award":["42230712"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42230712"]}]},{"name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD","award":["51574037"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["51574037"]}]},{"name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD","award":["2022JM-143"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022JM-143"]}]},{"name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, CHD","award":["300102262104"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["300102262104"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Qinghai\u2013Tibet Plateau is the highest and largest permafrost area in the middle and low latitudes of China. In this region, permafrost thaw settlement is the main form of expressway subgrade disaster. Therefore, the quantitative analysis and regionalization study of permafrost thaw settlement deformation are of great significance for expressway construction and maintenance in the Qinghai\u2013Tibet region. This paper establishes a thaw settlement prediction model using the thaw settlement coefficient and thaw depth. The thaw depth was predicted by the mean annual ground temperatures and active-layer thicknesses using the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network model, and the thaw settlement coefficient was determined according to the type of ice content. Further, the distribution characteristics of thaw settlement risk of the permafrost subgrade in the study region were mapped and analyzed. The results showed that the thaw settlement risk was able to be divided into four risk levels, namely significant risk, high risk, medium risk and low risk levels, with the areas of these four risk levels covering 3868.67 km2, 1594.21 km2, 2456.10 km2 and 558.78 km2, respectively, of the total study region. The significant risk level had the highest proportion among all the risk levels and was mainly distributed across the Chumar River Basin, Beiluhe River Basin and Gaerqu River Basin regions. Moreover, ice content was found to be the main factor affecting thaw settlement, with thaw settlement found to increase as the ice content increased.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15153913","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]],"date-time":"2023-08-08T12:38:59Z","timestamp":1691498339000},"page":"3913","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Risk Zoning of Permafrost Thaw Settlement in the Qinghai\u2013Tibet Engineering Corridor"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9559-730X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhiyun","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Jianbing","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-Altitude Regions, CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., Xi\u2019an 710065, China"}]},{"given":"Fuqing","family":"Cui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6034-3062","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wu","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Jine","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Hui","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-Altitude Regions, CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., Xi\u2019an 710065, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"1159","article-title":"Permafrost survey and monitoring provide scientific support for geoscience research, environmental protection and engineering construction in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau","volume":"32","author":"Zhao","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Chin. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103737","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coldregions.2022.103737","article-title":"Impact of heat and contaminants transfer from landfills to permafrost subgrade in arctic climate: A review","volume":"206","author":"Akhtar","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cold Reg. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"184","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coldregions.2018.06.016","article-title":"Thermal monitoring of railway subgrade in a region of ice-rich permafrost, Yakutia, Russia","volume":"155","author":"Varlamov","year":"2018","journal-title":"Cold Reg. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ahmed, A., and Islam, M.A. (2020, January 25\u201328). Effect of using geosynthetics in mitigation of freeze-thaw through numerical analysis. Proceedings of the 4th Session on Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Special Topics at Geo-Congress on Vision, Insight, Outlook, Minneapolis, MN, USA.","DOI":"10.1061\/9780784482810.046"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2151","DOI":"10.1139\/cgj-2021-0621","article-title":"Ultralow-frequency seismic sounding of railway subgrade state by passing trains","volume":"59","author":"Antonovskaya","year":"2022","journal-title":"Can. Geotech. J."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1002\/ppp.1751","article-title":"Thaw-Consolidation Effects on the Stability of Alpine Talus Slopes in Permafrost","volume":"23","author":"Bommer","year":"2012","journal-title":"Permafr. Periglac. Process."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL092959","article-title":"Ongoing Landslide Deformation in Thawing Permafrost","volume":"48","author":"Patton","year":"2021","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1002\/ppp.1999","article-title":"Radium isotope fingerprinting of permafrost\u2014Applications to thawing and intra-permafrost processes","volume":"30","author":"Weinstein","year":"2019","journal-title":"Permafr. Periglac. Process."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1657\/1523-0430(05-045)[PULLMAN]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Thaw settlement in soils of the arctic coastal plain, alaska","volume":"39","author":"Erik","year":"2007","journal-title":"Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Song, Y., Jin, L., and Wang, H.B. (2018). Vegetation Changes along the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Engineering Corridor Since 2000 Induced by Climate Change and Human Activities. Remote Sens., 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs10010095"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pandey, A.C., Ghosh, T., and Parida, B.R. (2022). Modeling Permafrost Distribution Using Geoinformatics in the Alaknanda Valley, Uttarakhand, India. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su142315731"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.1007\/s11204-015-9342-8","article-title":"Permafrost Temperature Dynamics in Subgrade and Foundation Reliability Enhancement","volume":"52","author":"Osokin","year":"2015","journal-title":"Soil Mech. Found. Eng."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dashjamts, D., and Altantsetseg, J. (2011, January 22\u201324). Research on consolidation of frozen soils upon thawing. Proceedings of the 2011 6th International Forum on Strategic Technology, Harbin, China.","DOI":"10.1109\/IFOST.2011.6021256"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1005","DOI":"10.1139\/t2012-058","article-title":"Remedying embankment thaw settlement in a warm permafrost region with thermosyphons and crushed rock revetment","volume":"49","author":"Ma","year":"2012","journal-title":"Can. Geotech. J."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1090","DOI":"10.1007\/s11629-017-4643-1","article-title":"Characteristics of thawed interlayer and its effect on embankment settlement along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in permafrost regions","volume":"15","author":"Sun","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Mt. Sci."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-15-0450-1_55","article-title":"Particularity and prediction method of ground settlement caused by subway tunnel construction in permafrost area","volume":"49","author":"Yu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Transp. Soil Eng. Cold Reg."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, D.R., Tighe, S.L., and Yin, S.D. (2022, January 18). Preliminary analysis of permafrost degradation in Ingraham Trail, Northwest Territories. Proceedings of the Canadian Society of Civil Engineering Annual Conference, Singapore.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-19-0507-0_11"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-021-00247-8","article-title":"Impacts of permafrost degradation on infra-structure","volume":"3","author":"Hjort","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat. Rev. Earth Environ."},{"key":"ref_19","first-page":"196","article-title":"Thermal stability and freezing-thawing hazards of main permafrost roadbed projects on Qinghai-Tibet Railway","volume":"33","author":"Niu","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Earth Sci. Environ."},{"key":"ref_20","first-page":"811","article-title":"Research on Risk zoning of melt-sink disaster in Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor under climate change","volume":"36","author":"Ruan","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Glaciol. Geocryol."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.14430\/arctic4368","article-title":"Thaw Settlement Hazard of Permafrost Related to Climate Warming in Alaska","volume":"67","author":"Hong","year":"2014","journal-title":"Arctic"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02885347","article-title":"Scientific legacy of NA Tsytovich","volume":"37","author":"Zaretskii","year":"2000","journal-title":"Soil Mech. Found. Eng."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"693","DOI":"10.1007\/s12665-021-09999-4","article-title":"Numerical analysis of frost heave and thawing settlement of the pile\u2013soil system in degraded permafrost region","volume":"80","author":"Tang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"500","DOI":"10.1080\/19648189.2022.2051078","article-title":"Thaw settlement of runways in permafrost regions under aircraft load","volume":"27","author":"Liu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Eur. J. Environ. Civ. Eng."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145855","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.145855","article-title":"Risk assessment of potential thaw settlement hazard in the permafrost regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","volume":"776","author":"Ni","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL097334","article-title":"Numerical Simulation of Thaw Settlement and Permafrost Changes at Three Sites Along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor in a Warming Climate","volume":"49","author":"Sun","year":"2022","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112190","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2020.112190","article-title":"Spatio-temporal Cokriging method for assimilating and downscaling multi-scale remote sensing data","volume":"255","author":"Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1007\/s10064-022-03059-2","article-title":"Statistical interpolation and spatial mapping of geotechnical soil parameters of District Sargodha, Pakistan","volume":"82","author":"Hassan","year":"2023","journal-title":"Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Zhang, J.M. (2004). Research on the Stability of Frozen Soil Roadbeds in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the Classification of Permafrost in Highway Engineering. [Ph.D. Thesis, Institute of Environment and Engineering in Cold and Dry Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences]."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8819476","DOI":"10.1155\/2020\/8819476","article-title":"Prediction Model of Thermal Thawing Sensibility and Thaw Depth for Permafrost Embankment along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor Using MODIS Data","volume":"2020","author":"Cui","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Sens."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102862","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coldregions.2019.102862","article-title":"The ground thermal regime and permafrost warming at two upland, sloping, and undisturbed sites, Kunlun Mountain, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","volume":"167","author":"Luo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cold Reg. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1002\/ppp.1972","article-title":"Environmental controls on ground temperature and permafrost in Labrador, northeast Canada","volume":"29","author":"Way","year":"2018","journal-title":"Permafr. Periglac. Process."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1007\/s12665-016-5687-1","article-title":"Estimating thawing depths and mean annual ground temperatures in the Khuvsgul region of Mongolia","volume":"75","author":"Zorigt","year":"2016","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_34","first-page":"81","article-title":"Variation and numerical simulation of temperature field in permafrost subgrade","volume":"14","author":"Yang","year":"2022","journal-title":"China Sci. Technol. Inf."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"572","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.01.077","article-title":"Active layer and permafrost thermal regime in a patterned ground soil in Maritime Antarctica, and relationship with climate variability models","volume":"584","author":"Chaves","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107331","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2020.107331","article-title":"Spatial prediction of permafrost occurrence in Sikkim Himalayas using logistic regression, random forests, support vector machines and neural networks","volume":"371","author":"Baral","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"370","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.02.041","article-title":"Data-driven mapping of the potential mountain permafrost distribution","volume":"590","author":"Deluigi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4889","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL078007","article-title":"Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness","volume":"45","author":"Aalto","year":"2018","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1029\/2020JD033402","article-title":"Simulation of the Present and Future Projection of Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with Statistical and Machine Learning Models","volume":"126","author":"Ni","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos."},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"240","article-title":"Principle, classification and application of artificial neural network","volume":"360","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Inf. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_41","first-page":"390","article-title":"Simulation of active layer thickness distribution in permafrost area of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","volume":"28","author":"Pang","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Glaciol. Geocryol."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43338","DOI":"10.1038\/srep43338","article-title":"Potential microbial contamination during sampling of permafrost soil assessed by tracers","volume":"7","author":"Schostag","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1645","DOI":"10.1007\/s00300-017-2088-1","article-title":"Bacteria primarily metabolize at the active layer\/permafrost border in the peat core from a permafrost region in western Siberia","volume":"40","author":"Morgalev","year":"2017","journal-title":"Polar Biol."},{"key":"ref_44","first-page":"1458","article-title":"Prediction model and distribution characteristics of active layer thickness in Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor","volume":"43","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Glaciol. Geocryol."},{"key":"ref_45","first-page":"2049","article-title":"Qinghai-Tibet highway ordinary fill subgrade deformation characteristics and the roadbed disease investigation analysis","volume":"4","author":"Peng","year":"2015","journal-title":"Rock Soil Mech."},{"key":"ref_46","first-page":"70","article-title":"The first phase of Publicity and Implementation Meeting of Design Code for Highway Subgrade JTG D30\u20142015 was successfully held in Guangzhou","volume":"198","author":"Wu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Eng. Constr. Stand."},{"key":"ref_47","first-page":"739","article-title":"Analysis of engineering complexity in permafrost regions of Qinghai\u2014Tibet railway","volume":"62","author":"Ku","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Eng. Geol."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/15\/15\/3913\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T20:27:33Z","timestamp":1760128053000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/15\/15\/3913"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,7]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"15","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,8]]}},"alternative-id":["rs15153913"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs15153913","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,7]]}}}