{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,31]],"date-time":"2026-01-31T04:42:07Z","timestamp":1769834527949,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,30]],"date-time":"2023-10-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1698624000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"Special Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42341102"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42341102"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"Special Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2017FY100904"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017FY100904"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"National Science and Technology Basic Resource Investigation Program","award":["42341102"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42341102"]}]},{"name":"National Science and Technology Basic Resource Investigation Program","award":["2017FY100904"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017FY100904"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The hydrological response to climate change and human activities plays a pivotal role in the field of water resource management within a given basin. This study was conducted with a primary focus on the Du River basin, aiming to assess and quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on changes in runoff patterns. The study utilized the Budyko framework in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to project future changes in runoff while also employing statistical tests like the Pettitt and Mann\u2013Kendall tests to identify abrupt shifts and monotonic trends in the data. The results shows that (1) The analysis of runoff data spanning from 1960 to 2016 revealed a significant declining trend (p &lt; 0.05) in annual runoff, with an abrupt change point identified in 1994. The multi-year average runoff depth was determined to be 495 mm. (2) According to the Budyko framework, human activities were found to be the dominant driver behind runoff changes, contributing significantly at 74.42%, with precipitation changes contributing 24.81%. (3) The results obtained through the SWAT model simulation indicate that human activities accounted for 61.76% of the observed runoff changes, whereas climate change played a significant but slightly smaller role, contributing 38.24% to these changes. (4) With constant climate conditions considered, the study predicted that runoff will continue to decrease from 2017 to 2030 due to the influence of ongoing and future human activities. However, this downward trend was found to be statistically insignificant (p &gt; 0.1). These findings provide valuable insights into the quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Du River basin. This information is crucial for decision-makers and water resource managers, as it equips them with the necessary knowledge to develop effective and sustainable strategies for water resource management within this basin.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15215178","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,30]],"date-time":"2023-10-30T13:20:07Z","timestamp":1698672007000},"page":"5178","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities to Runoff in the Du River Basin of the Qinling-Daba Mountains, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Xiaoying","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi\u2019an 710127, China"},{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi\u2019an 710127, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5562-4190","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yi","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi\u2019an 710127, China"},{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi\u2019an 710127, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"939","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-016-1308-x","article-title":"Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China","volume":"26","author":"Chen","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127536","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2022.127536","article-title":"Runoff changes in the major river basins of China and their responses to potential driving forces","volume":"607","author":"Yang","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e14448","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.14448","article-title":"The role of climate change and human interventions in affecting watershed runoff responses","volume":"35","author":"Senbeta","year":"2021","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"2108","article-title":"Water-driven ecological evolution mechanism in inland arid region","volume":"10","author":"Chen","year":"2004","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"797","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-011-2002-1","article-title":"Changes in water level, land use, and hydrological budget in a semi-permanent playa lake, Southwest Spain","volume":"184","author":"Green","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Monit. Assess."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.3390\/cli11070137","article-title":"Analysis of Hydrometeorological Characteristics and Water Demand in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Catchments under Water Deficit Conditions","volume":"11","author":"Stathi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Climate"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1719","article-title":"Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy production","volume":"3","author":"Destouni","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/j.habitatint.2014.10.020","article-title":"Effects of urbanization on ecosystem service values in a mineral resource-based city","volume":"46","author":"Wan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Habitat Int."},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"779","article-title":"Review for impacts of climate change and human activities on water cycle","volume":"44","author":"Song","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Hydraul. Eng."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iswcr.2021.04.009","article-title":"Is the runoff coefficient increasing or decreasing after ecological restoration on China\u2019s Loess Plateau?","volume":"9","author":"Zheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. Soil Water Conserv. Res."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"278","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014","article-title":"Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions","volume":"548","author":"Dey","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"256","article-title":"Variation trend and attribution of runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River","volume":"36","author":"Ning","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_13","first-page":"99","article-title":"Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors Under Changing Environment in Tarim River","volume":"30","author":"Wang","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bull. Soil Water Conserv."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2014.06.007","article-title":"Advances in separating effects of climate variability and human activity on stream discharge: An overview","volume":"71","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Adv. Water Resour."},{"key":"ref_15","first-page":"13","article-title":"Parameter Uncertainty Analysis and Daily Streamfiow Simulation of SLURP Hydrologic Model Based on Bayesian Theory","volume":"31","author":"Han","year":"2013","journal-title":"Water Rwsources Power"},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"118","article-title":"Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff Change in the Typical Basin of the MiddleRoute of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project","volume":"10","author":"Li","year":"2014","journal-title":"Clim. Change Res."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"131","article-title":"Assessment of ecohydrological regulation service in the Beijiang River Basin based on SWAT model","volume":"36","author":"Lin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Water Resour. Prot."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3189","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-018-1984-7","article-title":"Budyko\u2019s Based Method for Annual Runoff Characterization across Different Climatic Areas: An Application to United States","volume":"32","author":"Caracciolo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Water Resour. Manag."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"881","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-020-02752-9","article-title":"An attempt to decompose the impact of land use and climate change on annual runoff in a small agricultural catchment","volume":"35","author":"Krajewski","year":"2021","journal-title":"Water Resour. Manag."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110625","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2020.110625","article-title":"Evaluating SWAT model performance, considering different soils data input, to quantify actual and future runoff susceptibility in a highly urbanized basin","volume":"266","author":"Busico","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejrh.2014.09.003","article-title":"Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin","volume":"3","author":"Pervez","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2029","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.11167","article-title":"Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model","volume":"31","author":"Marhaento","year":"2017","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1007\/s40899-021-00596-8","article-title":"Performance assessment of SWAT and HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation of Toba watershed, Ethiopia","volume":"8","author":"Fanta","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sustain. Water Resour. Manag."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yang, Q.L., Luo, S.S., Wu, H.C., Wang, G.Q., Han, D.W., Lu, H.S., and Shao, J.M. (2019). Attribution analysis for runoff change on multiple scales in a humid subtropical basin dominated by forest, East China. Forests, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/f10020184"},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"73","article-title":"Quantitative analysis of impacts of environment changes on runoff in upper Han River","volume":"38","author":"Yang","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Hydroelectr. Eng."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1358","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667.2023.2218551","article-title":"Quantifying climate and anthropogenic impacts on runoff using the SWAT model, a Budyko-based approach and empirical methods","volume":"68","author":"Xu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Hydrol. Sci. J."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"W00J12","DOI":"10.1029\/2010WR010283","article-title":"Quantifying the relative contribution of the climate and direct human impacts on mean annual streamflow in the contiguous United States","volume":"47","author":"Wang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Xu, X.Y. (2012). Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Typical Catchments. [Ph.D. Thesis, Tsinghua University]."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"52277","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-022-19502-6","article-title":"Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of NDVI from 1982 to 2015 in the Qinba Mountains, China","volume":"29","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"4","article-title":"Analysis on Runoff Change Characteristics of Duhe River Basin during 1962\u20132015","volume":"45","author":"Liang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Water Power"},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"92","article-title":"Analysis of Hydrological Characteristics of Duhe River Basin","volume":"35","author":"Wang","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. China Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"45","article-title":"Research on Evolution of Precipitation in Duhe River Basin","volume":"25","author":"Liang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Gansu Norm. Coll."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"426","DOI":"10.12677\/JWRR.2021.104046","article-title":"Analysis on Runoff Variation Trend and Characteristics in Duhe River","volume":"10","author":"Gu","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_34","first-page":"290","article-title":"Division of Duhe River Basin and analysis of its NDVI characteristics","volume":"42","author":"Ma","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Yunnan Univ. Nat. Sci. Ed."},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"327","article-title":"Study on Plant Diversity of Duheyuan Nature Rwserve on the Northern Slope of Shennongjia, Hubei, China","volume":"4","author":"Pu","year":"2006","journal-title":"Plant Sci. J."},{"key":"ref_36","first-page":"14","article-title":"Analysis of Characteristics and Causes of Water Discharge and Sediment Load Changes of Duhe River","volume":"37","author":"Sun","year":"2016","journal-title":"Pearl River"},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. (1998). Crop Evapotranspiration Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements, FAO. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56."},{"key":"ref_38","first-page":"964","article-title":"Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of potential evapotranspriation and impact factors in China from 1961 to 2015","volume":"39","author":"Wu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Resour. Sci."},{"key":"ref_39","first-page":"857","article-title":"Spatio-temporal distribution of the potential evapotranspriation and its controlling factors in the tableland protected region of the LOESS Plateau","volume":"35","author":"Sun","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"41","article-title":"Temporal and spatial variation of potential evaporation and its influencing factors in pearl river basin from 1980 to 2019","volume":"43","author":"Zuo","year":"2022","journal-title":"Pearl River"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.2307\/1907187","article-title":"Non-parametric test against trend","volume":"13","author":"Mann","year":"1945","journal-title":"Econometrika"},{"key":"ref_42","first-page":"86","article-title":"Rank correlation methods","volume":"25","author":"Kendall","year":"1948","journal-title":"Br. J. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhao, K.F., Jing, L., Ma, X.P., and Deng, C.H. (2022). The Effects of Land-Use and Climatic Changes on the Hydrological Environment in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province. Forests, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/f13111776"},{"key":"ref_44","first-page":"214","article-title":"The Short-Term and Seasonal Trend Detection of Sediment Discharges in Turkish Rivers","volume":"24","author":"Burgan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Rocz. Ochr. Sr."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1007\/s00704-004-0064-5","article-title":"Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955\u20132001","volume":"79","author":"Feidas","year":"2004","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_46","first-page":"126","article-title":"A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem","volume":"28","author":"Pettitt","year":"1979","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc."},{"key":"ref_47","first-page":"652","article-title":"Techniques of abrupt change detection and trends analysis in hydroclimatic time-series: Advances and evaluation","volume":"38","author":"Zhang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Arid Land Geogr."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(98)00293-5","article-title":"Evaluation of an empirical equation for annual evaporation using field observations and results from a biophysical model","volume":"216","author":"Choudhury","year":"1999","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"W03410","DOI":"10.1029\/2007WR006135","article-title":"New analytical derivation of the mean annual water-energy balance equation","volume":"44","author":"Yang","year":"2008","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1024","DOI":"10.1360\/N092015-00013","article-title":"Attribution analysis for runoff decline in Yellow River Basin during past fifty years based on Budyko hypothesis","volume":"45","author":"Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci. Sin. Technol."},{"key":"ref_51","first-page":"7607","article-title":"Attribution of runoff variation in the Wei River basin based on the Budyko hypothesis","volume":"38","author":"Zhang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Acta Ecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_52","unstructured":"Kiniry, J., Williams, J., and Srinivasan, R. (2002). Soil and Water Assessment Tool User\u2019s ManualVersion 2000, Texas Water Resources Institute. TWRI Report TR-192."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2900","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-59659-z","article-title":"Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in Min-Tuo River Basin based on SWAT model simulations, China","volume":"10","author":"Hu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoleng.2014.05.014","article-title":"Evaluating uncertainty estimates in distributed hydrological modeling for the Wenjing River watershed in China by GLUE, SUFI-2, and ParaSol methods","volume":"76","author":"Wu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecol. Eng."},{"key":"ref_55","first-page":"1","article-title":"Quantitative Attribution of Runoff and Sediment Changes in the East River Basin and Impact on Erosion and Siltation of River Channel","volume":"41","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pearl River"},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1694(70)90255-6","article-title":"River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I\u2014A discussion of principles","volume":"10","author":"Nash","year":"1970","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0699(1999)4:2(135)","article-title":"Status of Automatic Calibration for Hydrologic Models: Comparison with Multilevel Expert Calibration","volume":"4","author":"Gupta","year":"1999","journal-title":"J. Hydrol. Eng."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"885","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.23153","article-title":"Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations","volume":"50","author":"Moriasi","year":"2007","journal-title":"Trans. ASABE"},{"key":"ref_59","first-page":"756","article-title":"Attribution analysis of runoff variations in the upper reaches of Hutuo River Basin","volume":"57","author":"Miao","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Beijing Norm. Univ. (Nat. Sci.)"},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ins.2020.07.024","article-title":"Simulating multiple land use scenarios based on the FLUS model considering spatial auto-correlation","volume":"22","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Geo-Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x","article-title":"Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment, Part I:model development","volume":"34","author":"Arnold","year":"1998","journal-title":"J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_62","unstructured":"Niu, L.Q. (2013). The Study Based on the SWAT Model about the Climate and Landuse Change Affected on the Runoff-Set the Du River as an Example. [Master\u2019s Thesis, Central China Normal University]."},{"key":"ref_63","first-page":"1114","article-title":"Attribution of runoff changes in the Hanjiang River basin based on Budyko hypothesis","volume":"19","author":"Peng","year":"2021","journal-title":"South-to-North Water Transf. Water Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_64","first-page":"1","article-title":"Quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Upper Hanjiang River basin","volume":"15","author":"Xia","year":"2017","journal-title":"South-to-North Water Transf. Water Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_65","first-page":"86","article-title":"Analysis on runoff variation in the Beida River Basin under the influence of cli- mate change and human activities","volume":"33","author":"Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Arid Land Resour. Environ."},{"key":"ref_66","first-page":"1433","article-title":"Runoff change in the lower reaches of ankang reservoir and the influence of ankang reservoir on ITS downstream","volume":"22","author":"Ma","year":"2013","journal-title":"Resour. Environ. Yangtze Basin"},{"key":"ref_67","first-page":"30","article-title":"Runoff and scouring amount in forest and grass land with different cover rate","volume":"1","author":"Luo","year":"1990","journal-title":"J. Soil Water Conserv."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/15\/21\/5178\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T21:14:23Z","timestamp":1760130863000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/15\/21\/5178"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,30]]},"references-count":67,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11]]}},"alternative-id":["rs15215178"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs15215178","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,30]]}}}