{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,15]],"date-time":"2026-02-15T08:47:52Z","timestamp":1771145272870,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":68,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"24","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,15]],"date-time":"2023-12-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1702598400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42301027"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42301027"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2022A1515111033"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022A1515111033"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["QBZ202313"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["QBZ202313"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong","award":["42301027"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42301027"]}]},{"name":"Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong","award":["2022A1515111033"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022A1515111033"]}]},{"name":"Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong","award":["QBZ202313"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["QBZ202313"]}]},{"name":"China Meteorological Administration climate change special project","award":["42301027"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42301027"]}]},{"name":"China Meteorological Administration climate change special project","award":["2022A1515111033"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022A1515111033"]}]},{"name":"China Meteorological Administration climate change special project","award":["QBZ202313"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["QBZ202313"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The spatiotemporal distribution of ecosystem service values (ESVs) and ecological risk are critical indicators to represent the regional ecological protection level and potential of sustainable development, which largely depend on land-use patterns. Aiming to contribute to global climate mitigation, China has proposed dual-carbon goals that would remarkably influence the land-use\/cover change (LUCC) distribution. Based on the Landsat land cover data of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and multisource satellite products, several driving factors are integrated into the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate future LUCC patterns for the Guangdong\u2013Hong Kong\u2013Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) under rapid urbanization, cropland protection and carbon neutral (CN) scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Spatial\u2013temporal ecosystem service and ESVs are allocated using INVEST and the equivalent factor method and thus ecological risks are evaluated using the entropy method. Results indicate that forest growth is the largest under the CN scenario, especially in the northwestern and northeastern GBA, exceeding 25,800 km2 in 2050, which results in both the highest habitat quality and carbon storage. The largest ESVs, reaching higher than 5210 yuan\/pixel, are found in the CN scenario, particularly expanding toward the suburban area, leading to the lowest ecological risks. From 2020 to 2050, habitat quality, carbon storage and ESVs improve, while ecological risks decline in the CN scenario. This research provides implications for economic and ecological balanced development and gives references to the carbon-neutral pathway for the GBA.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15245749","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,15]],"date-time":"2023-12-15T11:26:52Z","timestamp":1702639612000},"page":"5749","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Regional Land Use Dynamics and Its Potential Ecosystem Impact under Carbon Neutral Pathways in the Guangdong\u2013Hong Kong\u2013Macao Greater Bay Area"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Haoming","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Na","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Monitoring in Tropical and Subtropical Area of South China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Zhuhai 519082, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xun","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Huabing","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Monitoring in Tropical and Subtropical Area of South China, Ministry of Natural Resources, Zhuhai 519082, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guo, P., Wang, H., Qin, F., Miao, C., and Zhang, F. 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