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If the risk of flood disasters under climate and land-use changes can be predicted and evaluated, it will be conducive to flood control, disaster reduction, and global sustainable development. This study uses bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD), patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) coupled with multi-objective optimization (MOP), and entropy weighting to construct a 1 km resolution flood risk assessment framework for the Guanzhong Plain under multiple future scenarios. The results of this study show that BCSD can process the 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data well, with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.98, and that the Kappa coefficient is 0.85. Under the SSP126 scenario, the change in land use from cultivated land to forest land, urban land, and water bodies remained unchanged. In 2030, the proportion of high-risk and medium-risk flood disasters in Guanzhong Plain will be 41.5% and 43.5% respectively. From 2030 to 2040, the largest changes in risk areas were in medium- and high-risk areas. The medium-risk area decreased by 1256.448 km2 (6.4%), and the high-risk area increased by 1197.552 km2 (6.1%). The increase mainly came from the transition from the medium-risk area to the high-risk area. The most significant change in the risk area from 2040 to 2050 is the higher-risk area, which increased by 337 km2 (5.7%), while the medium- and high-risk areas decreased by 726.384 km2 (3.7%) and 667.488 km2 (3.4%), respectively. Under the SSP245 scenario, land use changes from other land use to urban land use; the spatial distribution of the overall flood risk and the overall flood risk of the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios are similar. The central and western regions of the Guanzhong Plain are prone to future floods, and the high-wind areas are mainly distributed along the Weihe River. In general, the flood risk in the Guanzhong Plain increases, and the research results have guiding significance for flood control in Guanzhong and global plain areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs15245778","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,18]],"date-time":"2023-12-18T10:04:47Z","timestamp":1702893887000},"page":"5778","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Future Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in the Guanzhong Plain, China: Scenario Analysis and the Impact of Climate Change"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8277-2930","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pingping","family":"Luo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"Xi\u2019an Monitoring, Modelling and Early Warning of Watershed Spatial Hydrology International Science and Technology Cooperation Base, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"School of Water and Environment, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Xiaohui","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"Xi\u2019an Monitoring, Modelling and Early Warning of Watershed Spatial Hydrology International Science and Technology Cooperation Base, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"School of Water and Environment, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"Xi\u2019an Monitoring, Modelling and Early Warning of Watershed Spatial Hydrology International Science and Technology Cooperation Base, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"School of Water and Environment, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"},{"name":"Xi\u2019an Xinsemi Material Technology Co., Ltd., Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4959-6584","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohd Remy Rozainy","family":"Mohd Arif Zainol","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"River Engineering and Urban Drainage Research Centre (REDAC), University Sains Malaysia, Nibong Tebal 14300, Penang, Malaysia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1503-8066","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Weili","family":"Duan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9485-954X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maochuan","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9786-7644","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bin","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Geomatics, Xi\u2019an University of Science and Technology, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}]},{"given":"Yuzhu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi\u2019an 710127, China"}]},{"given":"Yihe","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Nover","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, 5200 Lake R, Merced, CA 95343, USA"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2480","DOI":"10.3389\/fenvs.2022.1021862","article-title":"Floods and flood management and its socio-economic impact on Pakistan: A review of the empirical literature","volume":"10","author":"Manzoor","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front. 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