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Population growth in urban areas leads to various impacts on society and the environment. In this study, we have developed a method for generating future scenarios of nighttime lights. What makes this method unique is its ability to (1) generate future gridded nighttime light intensity scenarios for cities, (2) generate future scenarios that preserve the distribution pattern of nighttime light intensity, and (3) generate scenarios that reflect urban policies. By applying this developed method, we have estimated nighttime light data for 555 cities worldwide and predicted future urban expansion and changes in carbon emissions for each SSP scenario. Consequently, both urban areas and carbon emissions are estimated to increase for the entire set of target cities, with patterns varying among cities and scenarios. This study contributes to the advancement of urban scenario research, including the estimation of future urban area expansion and carbon emissions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16061018","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,13]],"date-time":"2024-03-13T13:08:43Z","timestamp":1710335323000},"page":"1018","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Future Scenarios of Urban Nighttime Lights: A Method for Global Cities and Its Application to Urban Expansion and Carbon Emission Estimation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1774-4308","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Masanobu","family":"Kii","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita 565-0871, Japan"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-3636-4043","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kunihiko","family":"Matsumoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, Suita 565-0871, Japan"}]},{"given":"Satoru","family":"Sugita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Digital Earth Applied Science Research Center, Chubu University, Kasugai 487-8501, Japan"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1097","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0320-9","article-title":"Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities","volume":"8","author":"Krayenhoff","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. 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