{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,5]],"date-time":"2026-06-05T13:27:04Z","timestamp":1780666024211,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]],"date-time":"2024-03-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1711670400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001321","name":"National Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["130043"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["130043"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001321","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Changes in land use and land cover over space and time are an indication of biophysical, socio-economic, and political dynamics. In rural communities, land-based livelihood strategies such as agriculture are crucial for sustaining livelihoods in terms of food provision and as a source of local employment and income. In recent years, African studies have documented an overall decline in the extent of small-scale crop farming, with many crop fields left abandoned. This study uses rural areas in three former apartheid homelands in South Africa as a case study to quantify patterns and trends in the overall land cover change and small-scale agricultural lands related to changes in climate over a 38-year period. Random forest classification was applied on the Landsat imagery to detect land use and land cover change, achieving an overall accuracy of above 80%. Rainfall and temperature anomalies, as well as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used as climate proxies to assess the influence of climate variability on crop farming, as the systems investigated rely completely on rainfall. Agricultural land declined from 107.5 km2 to 49.5 km2 in Umhlabuyalingana; 54 km2 to 1.6 km2 in Joe Morolong; and 254.6 km2 to 7.4 km2 in Mangaung between 1984 and 2022. Declines in cropland cover, precipitation, and the SPEI were highly correlated. We argue that climatic variability influences crop farming activities; however, this could be one factor in a suite of drivers that interact together to influence the cropping practices in rural areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16071200","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]],"date-time":"2024-03-29T06:33:16Z","timestamp":1711693996000},"page":"1200","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Influences of Climate Variability on Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rural South Africa"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2156-6794","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Buster Percy","family":"Mogonong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa"},{"name":"South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), Pretoria 0001, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4163-198X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wayne","family":"Twine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5285-4783","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gregor Timothy","family":"Feig","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), Pretoria 0001, South Africa"},{"name":"Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Helga","family":"Van der Merwe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), Pretoria 0001, South Africa"},{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1626-7610","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jolene T.","family":"Fisher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19680","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0701855104","article-title":"The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture","volume":"104","author":"Morton","year":"2007","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"462","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2958","article-title":"Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world","volume":"6","author":"Savo","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Blair, D., Shackleton, C.M., and Mograbi, P.J. (2018). Cropland abandonment in South African smallholder communal lands: Land cover change (1950\u20132010) and farmer perceptions of contributing factors. Land, 7.","DOI":"10.3390\/land7040121"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"323","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jrurstud.2018.01.004","article-title":"More than just fields: Reframing deagrarianisation in landscapes and livelihoods","volume":"61","author":"Hebinck","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Rural Stud."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Pachauri, R.K., and Reisinger, A. (2007). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, IPCC."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"085004","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/10\/8\/085004","article-title":"Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation","volume":"10","author":"Engelbrecht","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Blakeley, S.L., Sweeney, S., Husak, G., Harrison, L., Funk, C., Peterson, P., and Osgood, D.E. (2020). Identifying precipitation and reference evapotranspiration trends in West Africa to support drought insurance. Remote Sens., 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12152432"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Abu Arra, A., and \u015ei\u015fman, E. (2023). Characteristics of hydrological and meteorological drought based on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Water, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/w15173142"},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"361","article-title":"Coping with drought: The case of poor farmers of south Iran","volume":"22","author":"Hayati","year":"2010","journal-title":"Psychol. Dev. Soc."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"van der Valk, M., and Keenan, P. (2012). Climate Change, Water Stress, Conflict and Migration, UNESCO.","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199608942.003.0009"},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"153","article-title":"Determinants of livelihood strategies in Wolaita, southern Ethiopia","volume":"1","author":"Eneyew","year":"2012","journal-title":"Agric. Res. Rev."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"158","article-title":"Rural household livelihood strategies in drought-prone areas: A case of Gulomekeda District, eastern zone of Tigray National Regional State, Ethiopia","volume":"4","author":"Gebru","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Dev. Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_13","first-page":"1","article-title":"Livelihood strategies and use of forest resources in a protected area in the Brazilian semiarid","volume":"24","author":"Rito","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ. Dev. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"1","article-title":"Socioeconomic factors influencing livestock production among smallholder farmers in the free state province of south Africa","volume":"23","author":"Ogunkoya","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Entrep."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1016\/S0743-0167(01)00026-2","article-title":"Subsistence farming in transitional economies: Lessons from Bulgaria","volume":"18","author":"Kostov","year":"2002","journal-title":"J. Rural Stud."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"a1642","article-title":"Analysis of three decades of land cover changes in the Maputaland Coastal Plain, South Africa","volume":"62","author":"Ramjeawon","year":"2020","journal-title":"Koedoe Afr. Prot. Area Conserv. Sci."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2004.12.002","article-title":"Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland","volume":"107","author":"Rounsevell","year":"2005","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.17159\/sajs.2015\/20150019","article-title":"Systematic land-cover change in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Implications for biodiversity","volume":"111","author":"Jewitt","year":"2015","journal-title":"S. Afr. J. Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.17159\/sajs.2023\/10709","article-title":"Land cover change in marginalised landscapes of South Africa (1984\u20132014): Insights into the influence of socio-economic and political factors","volume":"119","author":"Mogonong","year":"2023","journal-title":"S. Afr. J. Sci."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Mucina, L., and Rutherford, M. (2006). The Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland, South African National Biodiversity Institute. Strelitzia 19; Memoirs of the Botanical Survey of South Africa."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2004.08.004","article-title":"Valuation of communal area livestock benefits, rural livelihoods and related policy issues","volume":"23","author":"Dovie","year":"2006","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1080\/13504500309469804","article-title":"Harvesting of communal resources by \u2018outsiders\u2019 in rural South Africa: A case of xenophobia or a real threat to sustainability?","volume":"10","author":"Twine","year":"2003","journal-title":"Int. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-4959.2007.00230.x","article-title":"Resilient geographies: Land, boundaries and the consolidation of the former bantustans in post-1994 South Africa","volume":"173","author":"Ramutsindela","year":"2007","journal-title":"Geogr. J."},{"key":"ref_24","first-page":"658","article-title":"The importance of non-timber forest products in rural livelihood security and as safety nets: A review of evidence from South Africa","volume":"100","author":"Shackleton","year":"2004","journal-title":"S. Afr. J. Sci."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.17159\/sajs.2020\/7522","article-title":"A portfolio perspective of rural livelihoods in Bushbuckridge, South Africa","volume":"116","author":"Ragie","year":"2020","journal-title":"S. Afr. J. Sci."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mutanga, O., and Kumar, L. (2019). Google earth engine applications. Remote Sens., 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs11050591"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1016\/j.isprsjprs.2016.01.011","article-title":"Random forest in remote sensing: A review of applications and future directions","volume":"114","author":"Belgiu","year":"2016","journal-title":"ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2012.02.010","article-title":"Intensity analysis to unify measurements of size and stationarity of land changes by interval, category, and transition","volume":"106","author":"Aldwaik","year":"2012","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1696","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JCLI2909.1","article-title":"A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index","volume":"23","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5474","DOI":"10.3390\/w7105474","article-title":"Using the SPEI to assess recent climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, South Tibet","volume":"7","author":"Li","year":"2015","journal-title":"Water"},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"120","article-title":"Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass","volume":"193","author":"Penman","year":"1948","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A Math. Phys. Sci."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.2307\/210739","article-title":"An approach toward a rational classification of climate","volume":"38","author":"Thornthwaite","year":"1948","journal-title":"Geogr. Rev."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00868097","article-title":"Comparison of Penman and Thornthwaite methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration for Indian conditions","volume":"38","author":"Kumar","year":"1987","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"686","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2019.01.009","article-title":"Deactivation of field cultivation in communal areas of South Africa: Patterns, drivers and socio-economic and ecological consequences","volume":"82","author":"Shackleton","year":"2019","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10225","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1910719117","article-title":"Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion","volume":"117","author":"Zaveri","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-4959.2007.00227.x","article-title":"Land-cover change and human\u2013environment interactions in a rural cultural landscape in South Africa","volume":"173","author":"Giannecchini","year":"2007","journal-title":"Geogr. J."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1172133","article-title":"A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems","volume":"325","author":"Ostrom","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Moyo, B., and Ravhuhali, K.E. (2022). Abandoned croplands: Drivers and secondary succession trajectories under livestock grazing in communal areas of South Africa. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su14106168"},{"key":"ref_39","first-page":"1792155","article-title":"Subsistence farmers\u2019 differential vulnerability to drought in Mpumalanga province, South Africa: Under the political ecology spotlight","volume":"6","author":"Ebhuoma","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cogent Soc. Sci."},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"3","article-title":"Trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall characteristics for small-scale agriculture in Northern Ghana","volume":"2","author":"Yengoh","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Agric. Sci."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13957","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1011538108","article-title":"Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO) links biodiversity conservation with sustainable improvements in livelihoods and food production","volume":"108","author":"Lewis","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1344","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annals.2011.03.006","article-title":"Linkages among biodiversity, livelihood, and tourism","volume":"38","author":"Nyaupane","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ann. Tour. Res."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envdev.2015.04.006","article-title":"Biodiversity conservation and livelihoods in rural Ghana: Impacts and coping strategies","volume":"15","author":"Cobbinah","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environ. Dev."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1313","DOI":"10.1111\/rec.13272","article-title":"Grasslands and savannahs in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration","volume":"28","author":"Dudley","year":"2020","journal-title":"Restor. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106206","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2020.106206","article-title":"Application of Landsat-derived vegetation trends over South Africa: Potential for monitoring land degradation and restoration","volume":"113","author":"Venter","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2358","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13529","article-title":"Woodland expansion in South African grassy biomes based on satellite observations (1990\u20132013): General patterns and potential drivers","volume":"23","author":"Skowno","year":"2017","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1020","DOI":"10.1002\/pan3.10329","article-title":"Nature-reliant, low-income households face the highest rates of woody-plant encroachment in South Africa","volume":"4","author":"White","year":"2022","journal-title":"People Nat."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13409","article-title":"Savanna woody encroachment is widespread across three continents","volume":"23","author":"Stevens","year":"2017","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"306","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2005.04.011","article-title":"Household wealth status and natural resource use in the Kat River valley, South Africa","volume":"57","author":"Shackleton","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/16\/7\/1200\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T14:20:40Z","timestamp":1760106040000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/16\/7\/1200"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]}},"alternative-id":["rs16071200"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs16071200","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]]}}}