{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,6]],"date-time":"2026-03-06T04:29:41Z","timestamp":1772771381885,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]],"date-time":"2024-04-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714089600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Independent Research Projects of State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics","award":["LED2023A07"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LED2023A07"]}]},{"name":"Independent Research Projects of State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics","award":["IGCEA2002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IGCEA2002"]}]},{"name":"Independent Research Projects of State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics","award":["2019YFC1509202"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2019YFC1509202"]}]},{"name":"National Nonprofit Fundamental Research Grant of Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration","award":["LED2023A07"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LED2023A07"]}]},{"name":"National Nonprofit Fundamental Research Grant of Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration","award":["IGCEA2002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IGCEA2002"]}]},{"name":"National Nonprofit Fundamental Research Grant of Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration","award":["2019YFC1509202"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2019YFC1509202"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LED2023A07"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LED2023A07"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["IGCEA2002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IGCEA2002"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2019YFC1509202"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2019YFC1509202"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Studies have demonstrated the potential of satellite thermal infrared observations to detect anomalous signals preceding large earthquakes. However, the lack of well-defined precursory characteristics and inherent complexity and stochasticity of the seismicity continue to impede robust earthquake forecasts. This study investigates the potential of pre-seismic thermal anomalies, derived from five satellite-based geophysical parameters, i.e., skin temperature, air temperature, total integrated column water vapor burden, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and clear-sky OLR, as valuable indicators for global earthquake forecasts. We employed a spatially self-adaptive multiparametric anomaly identification scheme to refine these anomalies, and then estimated the posterior probability of an earthquake occurrence given observed anomalies within a Bayesian framework. Our findings reveal a promising link between thermal signatures and global seismicity, with elevated forecast probabilities exceeding 0.1 and significant probability gains in some strong earthquake-prone regions. A time series analysis indicates probability stabilization after approximately six years. While no single parameter consistently dominates, each contributes precursory information, suggesting a promising avenue for a multi-parametric approach. Furthermore, novel anomaly indices incorporating probabilistic information significantly reduce false alarms and improve anomaly recognition. Despite remaining challenges in developing dynamic short-term probabilities, rigorously testing detection algorithms, and improving ensemble forecast strategies, this study provides compelling evidence for the potential of thermal anomalies to play a key role in global earthquake forecasts. The ability to reliably estimate earthquake forecast probabilities, given the ever-present threat of destructive earthquakes, holds considerable societal and ecological importance for mitigating earthquake risk and improving preparedness strategies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16091542","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]],"date-time":"2024-04-26T09:26:02Z","timestamp":1714123562000},"page":"1542","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes Using Thermal Anomalies from Satellite Observations"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5168-9683","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhonghu","family":"Jiao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China"}]},{"given":"Xinjian","family":"Shan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"076801","DOI":"10.1088\/1361-6633\/abf893","article-title":"The complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems: New approaches to forecasting and nowcasting of earthquakes","volume":"84","author":"Rundle","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rep. 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