{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T03:01:12Z","timestamp":1768532472041,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"16","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,8]],"date-time":"2024-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1723075200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2023YFF1305101"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023YFF1305101"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["YSS202315"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["YSS202315"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Opening Foundation of Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station","award":["2023YFF1305101"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023YFF1305101"]}]},{"name":"Opening Foundation of Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station","award":["YSS202315"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["YSS202315"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Ecological sustainability quantifies the capacity of an ecological system to sustain its health while fulfilling human survival needs and supporting future development. An accurate projection of ecological dynamics for sustainability is crucial for decision-makers to comprehend potential risks. However, the intricate interplay between climate change and human activity has hindered comprehensive assessments of future ecological sustainability, leaving it inadequately investigated thus far. This study aimed to assess future ecological sustainability shaped by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using remote sensing data from a typical arid farming\u2013pastoral zone located at the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain (NFYM), Inner Mongolia, China. Five machine learning models were employed to evaluate the relationship between ecological sustainability and its driving factors. The results indicate that (1) overall ecological sustainability initially decreased and then increased during 2003\u20132022; (2) the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model version 4 (GFDL-ESM4) mode and random forest model demonstrated the best performance in climate and ecological sustainability simulations; and (3) the annual change rates of ecological sustainability from 2023 to 2099 are projected to be +0.45%, \u22120.05%, and \u22120.46% per year under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, suggesting that stringent environmental policies can effectively enhance ecological sustainability. The proposed framework can assist decision-makers in understanding ecological changes under different SSPs and calls for strategies to enhance ecosystem resilience in the NFYM and similar regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16162894","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,8]],"date-time":"2024-08-08T07:01:25Z","timestamp":1723100485000},"page":"2894","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Assessing Future Ecological Sustainability Shaped by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights from an Arid Farming\u2013Pastoral Zone of China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Jiachen","family":"Ji","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, National Ecosystem Research Network of China (CNERN), School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Sunxun","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5348-3929","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tingting","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4648-5851","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, National Ecosystem Research Network of China (CNERN), School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Tianqi","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China"}]},{"given":"Xinying","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China"}]},{"given":"Yanan","family":"Zhuo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, National Ecosystem Research Network of China (CNERN), School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Yue","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, National Ecosystem Research Network of China (CNERN), School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China"}]},{"given":"Naijing","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-024-02326-7","article-title":"Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short- and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa","volume":"8","author":"Suggitt","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat. 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