{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,9]],"date-time":"2026-04-09T18:10:26Z","timestamp":1775758226074,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":82,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"19","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,27]],"date-time":"2024-09-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1727395200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program","award":["2022xjkk0405"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022xjkk0405"]}]},{"name":"Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program","award":["OF202417"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OF202417"]}]},{"name":"Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science and Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products","award":["2022xjkk0405"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022xjkk0405"]}]},{"name":"Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science and Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products","award":["OF202417"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OF202417"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a key indicator for assessing vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle balance. Xinjiang is located in an arid and ecologically fragile region in northwest China, but the current understanding of vegetation dynamics in the region is still limited. This study aims to analyze Xinjiang\u2019s NPP spatial and temporal trends, using random forest regression to quantify the extent to which climate change and human activities affect vegetation productivity. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate scenario data help assess vegetation restoration potential and future risks. Our findings indicate that (1) Xinjiang\u2019s NPP exhibits a significant increasing trend from 2001 to 2020, with three-quarters of the region experiencing an increase, 2.64% of the area showing significant decrease (p &lt; 0.05), and the Ili River Basin showing a nonsignificant decreasing trend; (2) precipitation and radiation are major drivers of NPP variations, with contribution ratios of 35.13% and 30.17%, respectively; (3) noteworthy restoration potential exists on the Tian Shan northern slope and the Irtysh River Basin, where average restoration potentials surpass 80% relative to 2020, while the Ili River Basin has the highest future risk. This study explores the factors influencing the current vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang, aiming to provide references for vegetation restoration and future risk mitigation, thereby promoting sustainable ecological development in Xinjiang.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16193604","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,27]],"date-time":"2024-09-27T06:10:27Z","timestamp":1727417427000},"page":"3604","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Wenjie","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0155-6735","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiang","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5784-5977","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hao","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]},{"given":"Yutong","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]},{"given":"Wenxi","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2838-3632","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Siqing","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-7540-6767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yinkun","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1038\/nature13470","article-title":"Convergence of terrestrial plant production across global climate gradients","volume":"512","author":"Michaletz","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"M03001","article-title":"Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model","volume":"3","author":"Lawrence","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. 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