{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,6]],"date-time":"2026-03-06T11:59:45Z","timestamp":1772798385114,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,15]],"date-time":"2024-11-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1731628800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004441","name":"Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["13394"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["13394"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004441","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Species-level phenology models are essential for predicting shifts in tree species under climate change. This study quantified phenological differences among dominant miombo tree species and modeled seasonal variability using climate variables. We used TIMESAT version 3.3 software and the Savitzky\u2013Golay filter to derive phenology metrics from bi-monthly PlanetScope Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2017 to 2024. A repeated measures Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) assessed differences in phenology metrics between species, while a regression analysis modeled the Start of Season (SOS) and End of Season (EOS). The results show significant seasonal and species-level variations in phenology. Brachystegia spiciformis differed from other species in EOS, Length of Season (LOS), base value, and peak value. Surface solar radiation and skin temperature one month before SOS were key predictors of SOS, with an adjusted R-squared of 0.90 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 13.47 for Brachystegia spiciformis. SOS also strongly predicted EOS, with an adjusted R-squared of 1 and an RMSE of 3.01 for Brachystegia spiciformis, indicating a shift in the growth cycle of tree species due to seasonal variability. These models provide valuable insights into potential phenological shifts in miombo species due to climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs16224261","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,15]],"date-time":"2024-11-15T06:59:13Z","timestamp":1731653953000},"page":"4261","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Modeling the Land Surface Phenological Responses of Dominant Miombo Tree Species to Climate Variability in Western Tanzania"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5697-6497","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Siwa E.","family":"Nkya","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Regional Research School in Forest Sciences (REFOREST), College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Tourism, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3009, Tanzania"},{"name":"Tanzania Forestry Research Institute, Morogoro P.O. Box 1854, Tanzania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Deo D.","family":"Shirima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecosystems and Conservation, College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Tourism, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3010, Tanzania"},{"name":"National Carbon Monitoring Centre, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3009, Tanzania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6108-3282","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robert N.","family":"Masolele","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University & Research, Postbus 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Henrik","family":"Hedenas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Forest Resource Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skogsmarksgr\u00e4nd, SE-901 83 Ume\u00e5, Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"August B.","family":"Temu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Tourism, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3009, Tanzania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Campbell, B. (1996). The Ecology of Miombo Woodlands. The Miombo in Transition: Woodlands and Welfare in Africa, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"(2001). FAO Africa: Ecological Zones. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000: Main Report, FAO. FAO Forestry Paper 140."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"(2012). Global Ecological Zones for FAO Forest Reporting: 2010 Update, FAO."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Ribeiro, N., Katerere, Y., Chirwa, P., and Grundy, I. (2020). Scenarios for Just and Sustainable Futures in the Miombo Woodlands, Springer. Miombo Woo."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Abdallah, J., and Monela, G. (2007, January 6\u201312). Overview of Miombo Woodlands in Tanzania. 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