{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T11:26:51Z","timestamp":1779103611233,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,6]],"date-time":"2015-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1438819200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP) area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland) was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with  warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm\u2013dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm\u2013wet conditions in the western region may promote vegetation growth.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs70809998","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,7]],"date-time":"2015-08-07T02:11:56Z","timestamp":1438913516000},"page":"9998-10016","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":122,"title":["Dynamic Response of Satellite-Derived Vegetation Growth to Climate Change in the Three North Shelter Forest Region  in China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Bin","family":"He","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Academy of College of Global Change and Earth System, Beijing Normal University,  Beijing 100875, China"},{"name":"Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aifang","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Academy of College of Global Change and Earth System, Beijing Normal University,  Beijing 100875, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Honglin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Academy of College of Global Change and Earth System, Beijing Normal University,  Beijing 100875, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qianfeng","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1826","DOI":"10.1021\/es0870597","article-title":"Why large-scale afforestation efforts in China have failed to solve the desertification problem","volume":"42","author":"Cao","year":"2008","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoleng.2012.12.040","article-title":"Increasing terrestrial vegetation activity of ecological restoration program in the Beijing\u2013Tianjin sand source region of China","volume":"52","author":"Wu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecol. Eng."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9477","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0706436105","article-title":"Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China\u2019s policies for ecosystem services","volume":"105","author":"Liu","year":"2008","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1759","DOI":"10.1021\/es200042s","article-title":"Carbon sequestration may have negative impacts on ecosystem health","volume":"45","author":"Wang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"828","DOI":"10.1007\/s13280-011-0150-8","article-title":"Greening China naturally","volume":"40","author":"Cao","year":"2011","journal-title":"AMBIO"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1216","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gr.2013.08.017","article-title":"Conservation of natural and cultural heritage in Dunhuang, China","volume":"26","author":"Qu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Gondwana Res."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Piao, S., Fang, J., Liu, H., and Zhu, B. (2005). NDVI-indicated decline in desertification in China in the past two decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32.","DOI":"10.1029\/2004GL021764"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoleng.2011.09.005","article-title":"Effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in Horqin sandy land, China based on SPOT-VGT NDVI data","volume":"38","author":"Zhang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Eng."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1038\/465031d","article-title":"Questionable value of planting thirsty trees in dry regions","volume":"465","author":"Cao","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaridenv.2009.08.001","article-title":"Has the three norths forest shelterbelt program solved the desertification and dust storm problems in arid and semiarid China?","volume":"74","author":"Wang","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Arid Environ."},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"1684r1690","article-title":"Review on the shelter forest decline","volume":"28","author":"Zhu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Chin. J. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2568","DOI":"10.3390\/rs3122568","article-title":"Analysis of vegetation behavior in a North African semi-arid region, using spot-vegetation NDVI data","volume":"3","author":"Amri","year":"2011","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1847","DOI":"10.1080\/01431160010029156","article-title":"NDVI anomaly patterns over Africa during the 1997\/98 ENSO warm event","volume":"22","author":"Wan","year":"2001","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1969","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x","article-title":"European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern","volume":"12","author":"Menzel","year":"2006","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6039","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0400168101","article-title":"Drought stress and carbon uptake in an Amazon forest measured with spaceborne imaging spectroscopy","volume":"101","author":"Asner","year":"2004","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"301","article-title":"Mapping land cover gradients through analysis of hyper-temporal NDVI imagery","volume":"23","author":"Ali","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"229","article-title":"Increasing terrestrial vegetation activity in China, 1982\u20131999","volume":"47","author":"Fang","year":"2004","journal-title":"Sci. China Ser. C Life Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1011","DOI":"10.1007\/s12665-011-0919-x","article-title":"Assessing vegetation dynamics in the Three-North Shelter Forest Region of China using AVHRR NDVI data","volume":"64","author":"Duan","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"044027","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/044027","article-title":"Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China","volume":"6","author":"Peng","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1696","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3543","article-title":"NDVI, temperature and precipitation changes and their relationships with different vegetation types during 1998\u20132007 in Inner Mongolia, China","volume":"33","author":"Chuai","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guo, L., Wu, S., Zhao, D., Yin, Y., Leng, G., and Zhang, Q. (2014). NDVI-based vegetation change in Inner Mongolia from 1982 to 2006 and its relationship to climate at the biome scale. Adv. Meteorol., 2014.","DOI":"10.1155\/2014\/692068"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4485","DOI":"10.1080\/01431160500168686","article-title":"An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data","volume":"26","author":"Tucker","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4031","DOI":"10.3390\/rs5084031","article-title":"A comparative analysis between gimss NDVIg and NDVI3g for monitoring vegetation activity change in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982\u20132008","volume":"5","author":"Jiang","year":"2013","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2108","DOI":"10.3390\/rs6032108","article-title":"Comparison of gross primary productivity derived from GIMMS NDVI3g, GIMMS, and MODIS in Southeast Asia","volume":"6","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3863","DOI":"10.3390\/rs70403863","article-title":"Future climate impact on the desertification in the dry land asia using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g data","volume":"7","author":"Miao","year":"2015","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1417","DOI":"10.1080\/01431168608948945","article-title":"Characteristics of maximum-value composite images from temporal AVHRR data","volume":"7","author":"Holben","year":"1986","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Cressie, N. (1991). Statistics for Spatial Data, John Wiley & Sons."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"313","DOI":"10.1080\/02693799008941549","article-title":"Kriging: A method of interpolation for geographical information systems","volume":"4","author":"Oliver","year":"1990","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Syst."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Hou, X. (2001). Chinese Academy of Science, The Editorial Board of Vegetation Map of China, Scientific Press."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1379","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1968.10480934","article-title":"Estimates of the regression coefficient based on kendall's tau","volume":"63","author":"Sen","year":"1968","journal-title":"J. Am. Stat. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Helsel, D.R., and Hirsch, R.M. (1992). Statistical Methods in Water Resources, Elsevier."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1623\/hysj.49.1.7.53993","article-title":"Change detection in hydrological records\u2014A review of the methodology","volume":"49","author":"Kundzewicz","year":"2004","journal-title":"Hydrol. Sci. J."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.12362","article-title":"Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions","volume":"20","author":"Krishnaswamy","year":"2014","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014","article-title":"Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen\u2019s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia","volume":"100","author":"Gocic","year":"2013","journal-title":"Glob. Planet. Chang."},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"120","article-title":"Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass","volume":"193","author":"Penman","year":"1948","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. Lon. Ser. A. Math. Phys. Sci."},{"key":"ref_36","first-page":"853","article-title":"Aridity index and its applications in geo-ecological study","volume":"28","author":"Meng","year":"2004","journal-title":"Acta Phytoecol. Sin."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1245","article-title":"Moisture conditions and climate trends in China during the period 1971\u20132000","volume":"26","author":"Wu","year":"2006","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-006-9121-7","article-title":"Recent and future climate change in Northwest China","volume":"80","author":"Shi","year":"2007","journal-title":"Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1007\/s00703-004-0101-z","article-title":"Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China","volume":"90","author":"Qian","year":"2005","journal-title":"Meteorol. Atmos. Phys."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2012.08.010","article-title":"Moisture index for Iran: Spatial and temporal analyses","volume":"100","author":"Tabari","year":"2013","journal-title":"Glob. Planet. Chang."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"340","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.002","article-title":"NDVI-based increase in growth of temperate grasslands and its responses to climate changes in China","volume":"16","author":"Piao","year":"2006","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12434","article-title":"Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation","volume":"501","author":"Peng","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1560","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1082750","article-title":"Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999","volume":"300","author":"Nemani","year":"2003","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"946","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaridenv.2011.05.007","article-title":"Changing climate affects vegetation growth in the arid region of the Northwestern China","volume":"75","author":"Zhao","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Arid Environ."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"240","DOI":"10.1016\/j.earscirev.2010.11.002","article-title":"Excessive reliance on afforestation in China\u2019s arid and semi-arid regions: Lessons in ecological restoration","volume":"104","author":"Cao","year":"2011","journal-title":"Earth Sci. Rev."},{"key":"ref_46","first-page":"1712","article-title":"Retrieval and analysis of vegetation cover in the Three-North Regions of China based on MODIS data","volume":"28","author":"Wu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Chin. J. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"330","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2013.08.022","article-title":"Using satellite based soil moisture to quantify the water driven variability in NDVI: A case study over mainland Australia","volume":"140","author":"Chen","year":"2014","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5471","DOI":"10.3390\/rs70505471","article-title":"Land degradation assessment using residual trend analysis of GIMMS NDVI3g, soil moisture and rainfall in Sub-Saharan west Africa from 1982 to 2012","volume":"7","author":"Ibrahim","year":"2015","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2014.10.009","article-title":"Interaction of ecological and social factors affects vegetation recovery in China","volume":"180","author":"Cao","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biol. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2635","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-13-2635-2013","article-title":"Sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols over China: Response to 2000\u20132015 emission changes of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia","volume":"13","author":"Wang","year":"2013","journal-title":"Atmos. Chem. Phys."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1251","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-11-074.1","article-title":"The 2009\/10 drought in China: Possible causes and impacts on vegetation","volume":"13","author":"Barriopedro","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"035701","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/7\/3\/035701","article-title":"Spatio-temporal patterns of the area experiencing negative vegetation growth anomalies in China over the last three decades","volume":"7","author":"Xu","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1080\/16742834.2012.11447037","article-title":"Drought over China in the 21st century: Results of REGCM3","volume":"5","author":"Ke","year":"2012","journal-title":"Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2059","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3822","article-title":"A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature, precipitation, and climatological drought in China","volume":"34","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2915","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1315126111","article-title":"Afforestation in China cools local land surface temperature","volume":"111","author":"Peng","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2008.04.004","article-title":"Estimation of surface albedo increase during the eighties Sahel drought from Meteosat observations","volume":"64","author":"Govaerts","year":"2008","journal-title":"Glob. Planet. Chang."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1965","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1276","article-title":"Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"25","author":"Hijmans","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"458","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1486","article-title":"Biogeochemical and ecological feedbacks in grassland responses to warming","volume":"2","author":"Wu","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Chang."}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/7\/8\/9998\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T20:50:19Z","timestamp":1760215819000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/7\/8\/9998"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,6]]},"references-count":58,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,8]]}},"alternative-id":["rs70809998"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs70809998","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,6]]}}}