{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,23]],"date-time":"2026-04-23T06:13:02Z","timestamp":1776924782914,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,15]],"date-time":"2017-06-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1497484800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The number of Lyme disease cases (Lyme borreliosis) in Ontario, Canada has increased over the last decade, and that figure is projected to continue to increase. The northern limit of Lyme disease cases has also been progressing northward from the northeastern United States into southeastern Ontario. Several factors such as climate change, changes in host abundance, host and vector migration, or possibly a combination of these factors likely contribute to the emergence of Lyme disease cases in eastern Ontario. This study first determined areas of warming using time series remotely sensed temperature data within Ontario, then analyzed possible spatial-temporal changes in Lyme disease risk in eastern Ontario from 2000 to 2013 due to climate change using tick population modeling. The outputs of the model were validated by using tick surveillance data from 2002 to 2012. Our results indicated areas in Ontario where Lyme disease risk changed from unsustainable to sustainable for sustaining Ixodes scapularis (black-legged tick) populations. This study provides evidence that climate change has facilitated the northward expansion of black-legged tick populations\u2019 geographic range over the past decade. The results demonstrate that remote sensing data can be used to increase the spatial detail for Lyme disease risk mapping and provide risk maps for better awareness of possible Lyme disease cases. Further studies are required to determine the contribution of host migration and abundance on changes in eastern Ontario\u2019s Lyme disease risk.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs9060609","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,15]],"date-time":"2017-06-15T10:07:33Z","timestamp":1497521253000},"page":"609","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Angela","family":"Cheng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Planning, Queen\u2019s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5419-8735","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dongmei","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Planning, Queen\u2019s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Katherine","family":"Woodstock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Planning, Queen\u2019s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nicholas","family":"Ogden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 rue Sicotte, CP 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 7C6, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaotian","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jianhong","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"186","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-4758(98)01224-1","article-title":"Ticks are not insects: Consequences of contrasting vector biology for transmission potential","volume":"14","author":"Randolph","year":"1998","journal-title":"Parasitol. Today"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-004-0139-x","article-title":"Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America","volume":"2","author":"Brownstein","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecohealth"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpara.2004.12.013","article-title":"A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis","volume":"35","author":"Ogden","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Parasitol."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"693","article-title":"The increasing risk of Lyme disease in Canada","volume":"56","author":"Bouchard","year":"2015","journal-title":"Can. Vet. J."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"909","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.0901766","article-title":"Active and passive surveillance and phylogenetic analysis of Borrelia burgdorferi elucidate the process of lyme disease risk emergence in Canada","volume":"118","author":"Ogden","year":"2010","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Public Health Ontario (2017). Monthly Infectious Diseases Surveillance Report."},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"Habegger, S. (2014). Lyme Disease in Canada: An Update on the Epidemiology, National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2015.1890","article-title":"Distribution of ticks and the risk of Lyme disease and other tick-borne pathogens of public health significance in Ontario, Canada","volume":"16","author":"Clow","year":"2016","journal-title":"Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1045","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2001.0893","article-title":"The shifting landscape of tick-borne zoonoses: Tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in Europe","volume":"356","author":"Randolph","year":"2001","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.9196171","article-title":"Global climate change and infectious diseases","volume":"96","author":"Shope","year":"1991","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-38.4.493","article-title":"Birds disperse Ixodid (Acari: Ixodidae) and borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks in Canada","volume":"38","author":"Scott","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"646","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2016.04.015","article-title":"Effects of climate and climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases: Ticks are different","volume":"32","author":"Ogden","year":"2016","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ginsberg, H. (1993). Population ecology of Ixodes damini. Ecology and Environmental Management of Lyme Disease, Rutgers University Press.","DOI":"10.36019\/9780813556031"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2002)083[0255:CCAVAL]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Comparing climate and vegetation as limiting factors for species ranges of African ticks","volume":"83","author":"Cumming","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1996.03530270057032","article-title":"Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases","volume":"275","author":"Patz","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Am. Med. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (1999). Appendix: Methods Used for Creating a National Lyme Disease Risk Map. Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. Recomm., 48, 21\u201324."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"946","DOI":"10.3390\/rs6020946","article-title":"Estimating temperature fields from MODIS land surface temperature and air temperature observations in a sub-arctic alpine environment","volume":"6","author":"Williamson","year":"2014","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"622","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-41.4.622","article-title":"Investigation of relationships between temperature and developmental Rates of tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory and field","volume":"41","author":"Ogden","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1175\/2010BAMS2955.1","article-title":"The definition of the standard WMO climate normal: The key to deriving alternative climate normals","volume":"92","author":"Arguez","year":"2011","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1007\/s00704-013-1033-7","article-title":"Estimating mean air temperature using MODIS day and night land surface temperatures","volume":"118","author":"Sun","year":"2014","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-308X(00)47012-0","article-title":"Advances in satellite remote sensing of environmental variables for epidemiological applications","volume":"47","author":"Goetz","year":"2000","journal-title":"Adv. Parasitol."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2012.10.034","article-title":"Estimation of daily maximum and minimum air temperature using MODIS land surface temperature products","volume":"130","author":"Zhu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4017(01)00426-5","article-title":"Forecasting habitat suitability for ticks and prevention of tick-borne diseases","volume":"98","year":"2001","journal-title":"Vet. Parasitol."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"980","DOI":"10.1109\/36.602541","article-title":"A physics-based algorithm for retrieving land-surface emissivity and temperature from EOS\/MODIS data","volume":"35","author":"Wan","year":"1997","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1080\/0143116031000116417","article-title":"Quality assessment and validation of the MODIS global land surface temperature","volume":"25","author":"Wan","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nelder, M.P., Russell, C., Lindsay, L.R., Dhar, B., Patel, S.N., Johnson, S., Moore, S., Kristjanson, E., Li, Y., and Ralevski, F. (2014). Population-based passive tick surveillance and detection of expanding foci of blacklegged ticks Ixodes scapularis and the Lyme disease agent Borrelia burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada. PLoS ONE, 9.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0105358"},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Natural Resources Canada (2015, August 07). The Atlas of Canada, Available online: http:\/\/www.nrcan.gc.ca\/earth-sciences\/geography\/atlas-canada."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2012.11.014","article-title":"Developing a temperature-driven map of the basic reproductive number of the emerging tick vector of Lyme disease Ixodes scapularis in Canada","volume":"319","author":"Wu","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1007\/s00285-006-0015-0","article-title":"The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality: The case of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Chichaoua, Morocco","volume":"53","author":"Guernaoui","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Math. Biol."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1007\/s10884-008-9111-8","article-title":"Threshold dynamics for compartmental epidemic models in periodic environments","volume":"20","author":"Wang","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Dyn. Differ. Equ."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Public Health Ontario (2016). Technical Report: Update on Lyme Disease Prevention and Control."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Werden, L., Barker, I.K., Bowman, J., Gonzales, E.K., Leighton, P.A., Lindsay, L.R., and Jardine, C.M. (2014). Geography, deer, and host biodiversity shape the pattern of Lyme disease emergence in the thousand islands archipelago of Ontario, Canada. PLoS ONE, 9.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0085640"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-40.2.179","article-title":"Deer density and the abundance of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae)","volume":"40","author":"Rand","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-7-24","article-title":"Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change","volume":"7","author":"Ogden","year":"2008","journal-title":"Int. J. Health Geogr."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0803.010166","article-title":"Predicting the risk of Lyme disease: Habitat suitability for Ixodes scapularis in the North Central United States","volume":"8","author":"Guerra","year":"2002","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpara.2005.08.016","article-title":"Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada","volume":"36","author":"Ogden","year":"2006","journal-title":"Int. J. Parasitol."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-1923(99)00169-0","article-title":"A comparison of two statistical methods for spatial interpolation of Canadian monthly mean climate data","volume":"101","author":"Price","year":"2000","journal-title":"Agric. For. Meteorol."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2010.00526.x","article-title":"Field and climate-based model for predicting the density of host-seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis, an important vector of tick-borne disease agents in the eastern United States","volume":"19","author":"Cislo","year":"2010","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"Public Health Ontario (2016). Ontario Blacklegged Tick Surveillance: Quick Guide for Public Health Units."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1221","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.080148","article-title":"The emergence of Lyme disease in Canada","volume":"180","author":"Ogden","year":"2009","journal-title":"Can. Med. Assoc. J."},{"key":"ref_41","first-page":"1573","article-title":"Lyme borreliosis in Ontario: Determining the risks","volume":"162","author":"Barker","year":"2000","journal-title":"Can. Med. Assoc. J."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1890\/ES12-00134.1","article-title":"Geographical and environmental factors driving the increase in the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis","volume":"3","author":"Khatchikian","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecosphere"}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/9\/6\/609\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T18:39:06Z","timestamp":1760207946000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/9\/6\/609"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,15]]},"references-count":42,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,6]]}},"alternative-id":["rs9060609"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs9060609","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.3410\/f.729071909.793540547","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,6,15]]}}}